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Thursday, November 04, 2010

BC Notes

I said I wasn't going to bother this year writing about stuff like how much it sucks to have a Breeders' Cup program on Friday. It really does suck though. Less so I guess however since they don't start until 4:10...and that's the Marathon, which I could care less about (sorry Figless). But, since they have the lights at Churchill, why not have the program even later? (Oh, yeah, college football on ESPN2, excuse me for even suggesting the idea.)

I'd like to get home early in time for the F&M Sprint, which is the only race on the day that I'm really interested in betting on anyway. Switch has been listed at 20-1, and I gotta think she's worth a play at that price (discussed the race here). The flip side of throwing out synthetic horses getting overbet on real dirt, is getting a good price on a sharp one who is maybe getting overlooked for the same reason. I think that Rightly So (3-1) is a deserving favorite who should be able to lead into the turn despite breaking from the 13 post. But, again, I sure wouldn't be shocked to see her get run down in the long stretch; and Sadler's filly sure seems worth a flyer at even half of those morning odds. (I've soured somewhat on Champagne D'Oro due to her poor draw)

In the Juvie Turf Fillies, I don't really get why Winter Memories would be listed as such a dominant choice (2-1) against a field loaded with young fillies that look just as promising as she. I mean, these are all lightly raced two year-olds that have raced against other lightly raced two-year olds. This one is best because she raced in New York? Who's to say that she's that much better than others in here that have also impressed in stakes company, like Kathmanblu or New Normal or More Than Real or Together (though the last three drew outside posts)? Seems to me that any of those would be worth a shot at double digit odds (as all but the last one are listed at). Tough, if not an impossible race....but I think this is exactly the kind of BC race in which it often pays to be skeptical of the betting favorite.

How about a few bucks just for fun on Wyomia (12-1), and for no other reason but that I absolutely love her breeding for grass? She's by Vindication (Seattle Slew) out of Beyond the Sun, a Kingmambo mare who is also the dam of the world record holder, at a mile and a quarter on grass, and G1 winner Red Giant. Look under her third dam, and you'll see grass horses such as the Euro champion Bosra Sham, the Group 1 winners Ciro (who also won the Secretariat on these shores), Hector Protector, Shanghai, Act One; Proskona, an Italian champion, the Grade 1 winners Internallyflawless and Passinetti, and a host of other horses that were accomplished on the surface. Wyomia improved after her debut when switching from turf to the Woodbine Poly; but she was also stretching out to two turns. Based on her pedigree, could have been that which prompted the turnaround; deserves another shot on the lawn here. (OK, so maybe that's two Friday races that I'm interested in betting on.)


Figless said...

Not getting Switch, has never won on dirt, at distance or vs. older, think you are falling in love solely because of the narrow defeat to Z.

Best victory a G2 for 3yo fillies going two turns on AWT, albeit defeating Blind Luck.

This is a different ballgame, but at 20-1 cant blame you for taking a shot.

alan said...

Figless - She's sharp, improving, from a great barn, and I liked what Sadler said about her in this article. You don't get 20-1 on horses that have done all of the obvious things. Think she's a quality filly well worth a shot at that price.

suebroux said...

Re Switch: In yesterday's Clocker's Corner, Mike Welsch reported that her local works did not go well and she may prefer synthetics.

alan said...

Hey suebroux, how's it going? :-)

I respect Welsch, but this filly worked a bullet (of 40) half of 47, five in 1:00 1/5 (2/32) and another five in 1:01 1/5 (9/41), all breezing. If that's not going well, I'd like to see her works when she is!

Anonymous said...

I watched switch's works. Absolutely amazing. She was moving so smoothly and running so straight with no encouragement. I though she would be 9/2 not 20/1.

El Angelo said...

If we get 10-1 on Switch we'll be lucky. Everyone seems to like her, except the morning line maker.

Anonymous said...

Ray Charles can see that Switch almost beat Zenyatta last out. If he can, so can the bettors. No way she's close to 20-1. Mike Battaglia has long been brain dead.

Figless said...

Sara Louise