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Saturday, November 20, 2010

Lookin At Gone

Looking at Lucky was sold and retired, and I have nothing to add to Figless' comment here. That means that the top four betting choices in the Classic - the only four entrants that went off at less than 18-1 - are now out of the game. So, since El Angelo points out that the Discovery has produced some decent winners, keep an eye on the result today. It could produce the winter book favorite for next year's Classic. (If the winner is not sold and retired.)

I don't know if Zenyatta is the type to go for younger guys (if she does indeed like men at all), but she and Lookin At Lucky do seem compatible from a pedigree standpoint. The resulting foal would have the inbreeding to Mr. Prospector (3x4) that is so popular these days.

If you look at the Lanes End roster - and again, I don't know that the fact that she'll be residing there means that she'll be shacking up there - I guess that the obvious choice would be AP Indy. No pedigree impediments in that crossing - the foal would be an outcross for the first four generations, and have 5x5 inbreeding to Princequillo. Not a drop of Northern Dancer blood to be found in that mating.


Steve Zorn said...

Lots of excellent race mares turn out to be, well, less than excellent as broodmares. The first foal will sell for a bundle, though, whoever the baby daddy turns out to be.

As for Lucky, it's obvious that Coolmore made an offer that Mike Pegram couldn't refuse. Guess business is a bit off at McDonalds out west.

El Angelo said...

Why would the Mosses sell her offspring?

Steve Zorn said...

Because that's the way you getb to keep playing the game.

Anonymous said...

Zenyatta is a huge mare. Maybe they will have to try a Belgian draft horse.

El Angelo said...

Jerry Moss is worth a ton of money. I don't think he needs to sell Zenyatta's foals to stay in the game.

Figless said...

AP Indy would be obvious, except he gets plodders, more effective when bred to fast mares.

Believe they will try to add some speed to the pedigree by adding Mr P, probably through Curlin but Quality Road might be very tempting.

Should avoid Northern Dancer line because it will likely result in a turf meant foal.

The foal is going to be worth millions even if they breed to a $5,000 stallion, and I do think they will keep and race, so stallions commercial appeal should be less important than it would be for other mares.

Figless said...

Steve, my theory is that the top mares are often bred with future auction value in mind rather than the best physical cross for the mare, breed the best to the best and hope for the best.

Hence these great mares are often bred to stallions that do not fit their physical type, in an effort to generate top dollar for the offspring.

I would love to see the Moss's, since they should in theory not be influenced by commercial appeal, pick a proven but lesser commercially viable stallion that the experts indicate is a perfect physical match.

After all, it will be impossible to improve on Zenyatta, better off trying to duplicate her physically.

For instance, selecting solely from the Lane's End roster, Lemon Drop Kid might be very interesting. Big, excellent conformation, proven race horse and stallion, just not the flavor of the week so standing for less money, good value.

Anonymous said...

Pure and simple, AP Indy. Take it to the bank!!!