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Thursday, November 25, 2010

Happy Thanksgiving!

Apart is the 7-2 favorite in the Clark Handicap at Churchill on Friday. Being trained by Albert Stall as he is (and trying to replicate the success of Blame in winning this race as a three-year old as a springboard to stardom at four), one can get a peek at the past performance chart of Blame by using the trainer patterns tool in Formulator. We don't always see - at least without some effort - the past performance lines after a horse is retired. In the case of Blame, his Classic line comprises the final stroke of an impressive body of work. Eight wins and never out of the money in 12 career starts; triple-digit Beyers in his last nine, including a 111 in the Classic, which tied his career high. And four wins in five starts, at as many racetracks, in what should be his championship season. I was a Zenyatta supporter as you know, and it may very well be that she was the best horse on Breeders' Cup day. But Blame won the year's climactic showdown fair and square, and is Horse of the Year hands down in my opinion.

Apart has won three in a row, though he hasn't beaten much. The Super Derby has not come back strong; 4th place finisher Golden Moka was an awful favorite in the Discovery (not red-boarding, he wasn't among my top three picks). And he beat just four foes, including the sluggish Jackson Bend, in winning the Ack Ack.

However, this field ain't so hot either...and we seem to be saying that about more and more Grade 1's these days. This one at least has a couple of actual Grade 1 winners; though Stately Victor's was on Polytrack, Brass Hat's in the slop. Apart is improving for a hot trainer (6 for 10 at the meet going into Wednesday), has his main man Garrett Gomez aboard, and has handy tactical speed which could put him in good position behind prospective pace setters Redding Colliery and Regal Ransom. I think he'd surely be worth a bet as second choice to morning line favorite Successful Dan, who flashes some gaudy Beyers in his last two on the Keeneland Poly. (I know, he was two-for-two over this track in the spring of last year). Throw out the last for Giant Oak (15-1); son of Giant's Causeway shows two sharp efforts prior. And though he hasn't won in a while and his optimal distance is probably somewhere between this race and the BC Marathon, he could add some value at the bottom of exotic wagers here.

It's the usual early Thanksgiving post time at the Big A, and I'm hoping to make it out for a few races before heading to family dinner, and then ending up sitting in the rain at the Meadowlands for the Jets game. Here's wishing all of you a happy and safe holiday!

1 Comment:

Anonymous said...

Twinspires TV is awesome.