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Thursday, November 04, 2010

Yes You Can

Well, it must be Breeders' Cup time because Joe Drape and the NY Times rolled out their ritual front-page-of-the-sports section column on the dark side of the sport.

You cannot hold a Breeders’ Cup, a series of championship races for the world’s best horses, without the issue of medications and illegal drugs coming up. [NY Times]
Well, actually, you can.

OK, I'm not going to do a formal handicapping post. I've been thinking out loud here over the last couple of weeks, and you know which horses I'm interested in....if you could possibly care. What do you need me for when you have experts like Drape? Besides, I want to keep my options open in the relative handful of races I'm interested in betting, at least as of now. There are a few races, like the Turf Sprint, that I honestly have barely even glanced at...and I'm looking forward to handicapping them during the day just like I would a 25K claimer at the Big A.

I don't really care for the order of the races on Saturday....and not because the Dirt Mile is the 9th, third to last on the day. Sure, it breaks up the continuity of the whole World Championship thing.....kinda like Good Charlotte playing between Sonic Youth and Guided By Voices (something to look forward to on the day after BC Saturday). But it is an awesome betting race. Would be a great way to start a Pick Three, or continue a Pick Four starting with the Mile leading up to the Classic, and Zenyatta, who, as jp has pointed out, figures to present better value in the multi-race wagers than she will in the win pool. Problem is that the Turf kinda sucks as a betting race, and figures to suck, period, should Workforce scratch, as appears likely to be the case.

Honestly, I don't really care much about the race either way; the Arc winner and some other Euro who's second choice against a field of highly mediocre American horses, yawn. Yeah, I'm sure you can tell I haven't paid much attention to racing overseas of late. There's plenty enough - some would argue far too much - of the sport over here. to keep us all busy.

A reader mentioned Haynesfield, and, as I've said, I do believe that he's developed into a serious racehorse. Mike Welsch has been ga-ga about this one, and wrote that he's a major upset threat if allowed to relax on the lead once again in his present form. Problem is that I don't believe that he will be able to relax on the lead in this field; I think it shapes up tough tactically. I really do like Blame to complete the exacta, and to take it all if Zenyatta falters for any reason at all.

As suebroux pointed out, Welsch hated the last workout by Switch, who, he says, "really fell apart during the latter stages after a quick beginning, drifting out coming to the wire and shutting down completely during her gallop-out." Oh. Sadler said the workout was fine, noting that the track was a little heavy, and that she actually worked six furlongs (in 1:13 1/5), not the five she was credited with. I like to say that I pay attention to workout reports when they reinforce my opinion, and consider them to be "too much information" when they don't. In this case, it will depend upon the odds. In any event, plenty of horses to like at fair odds if you're committed to beating Rightly So, as I am.

Posters on this TVG Community board noted that Steve Crist picked the filly despite his paper's clocker's opinion....and I don't know which makes me more wary of her. (Not because I think Crist is a fool, just because I tend to go off longshot-types when public handicappers start to pick up on them.)


DiscreetPicks said...

Churchill - Race 4

#5 Colizeo (3/1 ml)

This Pletcher colt looks to be rounding into top form, finishing strongly to score a sharp win @ Belmont last time out, then following that up on his recent worktab, working heads-up with Life at Ten (7/2 second-choice in the Ladie's Classic) on Oct 23 and then heads-up with R Heat Lightning (4/1 second-choice in the Juvenile Fillies). Also note that Colizeo loves Churchill Downs, as he's just a nose away from being 3-for-3 over the local surface, with all three races coming at today's distance. Expecting a good run here.

El Angelo said...

The mistake is thinking Switch would be a longshot; she's 10-1 with the British bookies.

Anonymous said...

What makes you think Workforce is likely to scratch, Alan? -jp

alan said...

jp - The connections are unhappy with the condition of the turf course...they think it's too firm. Read here.

(Though this morning, the Courier-Journal sez he's still in.) I mean, he did come all this way, after all...

Figless said...

And they did get some rain there yesterday, at least it appeared that way on accuweather radar.

Figless said...

CD Race 4

Colizeo makes a lot of sense for the above reasons but I still shy away from 3yo's facing older this time of year, especially when not impressed with the crop, so I love Demarcation (5/2 ML) in this spot. Has been facing better, picks up Borel, and also has a proven affinity for the surface.

Very chalky race. At least both of us are against Apart, the bad ML favorite at 2-1 although I think he will be third choice in the wagering.

Figless said...

CD Race 3 -

Just wanted to note return of mismanaged Noble's Promise in this spot.

On topic of mismanagement, Backtalk (6-1ML)is back sprinting and may pick up the pieces if projected hotly contested pace develops.Love the jockey change to Bejarano. Last was fast enough.

Figless said...

After much consideration I have landed on Sara Louise in today's FM Sprint.

Trainer 38% second after layoff, handles the surface over which she has been beaten only by the good Rachel Alexandra in two starts, and last serves as a perfect prep.

7f distance hits her right between the eyes, should be able to work out a nice rail trip under Frankie Dettori who is one of the best in the game at pocket riding, perfect timing albeit mostly on Euro turf.

Of the three year olds I prefer Champagne D'Oro to Switch, outside draw should not hurt this one as much as it will the favorite Rightly So, who of course must be respected but is facing plenty of early pressure.

Other Selections;

Marathon - Prince Will I Am over logical AU Miner and bomb Romp.

Juv Filly T - Against Winter Memories, spread beginning with Kathmanblu and Fancy Point, who may not have liked the yielding turf in last

Juv Fillies - R Heat Lighting and the west's best, Tell A Kelly, chance for Believe in AP

Turf - Keying Midday in TRI's over the other Euros Hibaayeb and Red Desire

Classic - Blind Luck, would love to have seen a match up between her and Zenyatta sometime this year. May try Unrivaled Belle in her favored place position.

So much for me not being interested, simply could not resist once I realized I would be out of work in time for this card, so kukos to CD for the late start.

jk said...

Breaking news.......

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Last update: 11/5/2010 10:00:01 AM

Partnership Includes Naming Rights and Opportunity for North America's Largest Resort Casino to Further Penetrate the NY Market

MASHANTUCKET, Conn., Nov 05, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Foxwoods Resort Casino and The New York Racing Association, Inc. (NYRA) have announced a partnership that includes naming rights to three major graded stakes races and cross-promotional marketing activities.
North America's largest resort casino is now the official sponsor of a triumvirate of prestigious races, comprising the Grade 1 Foxwoods Just a Game on Belmont Stakes Day, the Grade 1 Foxwoods King's Bishop on Travers Day at Saratoga Race Course, and the Grade 2 Foxwoods Gallant Bloom during Belmont Park's fall championship meet.
"Foxwoods is thrilled to partner with the prestigious New York Racing Association," said Michael Holder, Vice President of Bingo, Keno and Race Book Operations for Foxwoods Resort Casino and MGM Grand at Foxwoods. "NYRA has long had a passionate and loyal fan base and we're excited to be aligned with such a legendary organization. This agreement provides us with a great way to further extend our brand in the New York marketplace in a compelling way and we're looking forward to working together with NYRA on a number of innovative initiatives and events."
In addition to the three aforementioned races, Foxwoods and NYRA will launch multiple joint promotions and contests, including handicapping contests, poker events, and seasonal getaway packages at the MGM Grand at Foxwoods.
Foxwoods Race Book is the ultimate stop for racing and gaming enthusiasts, offering tableside beverage service and a full service bar. 199 IPT's are also available, allowing customers to conveniently place bets at their seats. The Foxwoods Race Book also offers self-service betting machines and kiosks, providing racing changes, odds and results. Recently, the Race Book announced the addition of Aqueduct, Belmont, and Saratoga meets to their simulcast menu. Dream Card members simply present the card to any teller to earn reward points.

El Angelo said...

Anyone know if there's a way to watch today's races online for those of us who will be working?

Figless said...

The gall of these Euro trainers (of Workforce and Midday, specifically) is amazing, ship over to run in our championship and now crying about the "jarring" nature of the turf course, demanding it be watered or else they might scratch.

Go ahead, no one will miss you, in fact the races will become more attractive wagering events.

El Angelo said...

Well that I completely disagree with. I don't like Workforce at all in the Turf, so I want him to be in. A 7 horse race with a 3-5 favorite is not a better option.

alan said...

El Ang - Who do you like then? I need some ideas, and the race has just left me cold to this point.

onecalicocat said...

Like Figless, I am going to hope that Backtalk has a decent race in him today after a year of gross mismanagement. Every Smarty Jones baby should be considered a turf horse until he/she proves otherwise.

Hard to understand the lack of interest in Lucky. Is it the post position? The Beyers? I am emptying out my online account on him. Will start fresh next year if he doesn't win or place.

Anonymous said...

heavy duty drug testing on ALL horses, therefore, forget pletcher, mott, clement asmussen , sadler, o'neal and scott lake.
that is why the pick 6 pays over $1 million every year.

El Angelo said...

Bekhabad, and a lot. Also like Dangerous Midge and Al Khali to get a piece.

Anonymous said...

el angelo~~not sure if they will be airing, but try for online video of BC races. good luck!

Anonymous said...

I am also on Sara Louise. I think her morning line of 15-1 is ridiculous though. I would not be shocked if she gets played down to 5-1.

I like the 2 and the 6 in the BC Juvi Fillies and played both in combination every which way.

Midday appears to be a lock, unless Red Desire goes nuts.

I really like Life At Ten in the Distaff. She should get the jump on Blind Luck. I singled her up the whazoo.

Good luck everyone. Even you, Dirty. -jp

Anonymous said...

Blame's workout partner wins easy.

Figless said...

I like LAL, most likely upsetter if Z runs into traffic, on my tickets.

steve in nc said...

I'm with El Angelo in the turf. Hoping Workforce stays in.

Drape needs to demand a drug test for Borel. He must have taken 8 greenies before the Marathon.

But no hand-wringing for racing's image. As pitiful as it was, the highlights get on the news, it might improve tomorrow's ratings.

Figless said...

anon 1207 wrote

>heavy duty drug testing on ALL horses, therefore, forget pletcher, mott, clement asmussen , sadler, o'neal and scott lake.<

Not sure if there is a correlation but the super barns did not fare well today.

The Life AT Ten situation was disturbing, never saw anything like that, everyone knew but the vet?

I ended up tossing her, but man I feel bad for anyone who bet her, and for the connections who paid a load of money to enter and run, believe they would have gotten a partial refund with a scratch.

As for the jock fight, whats lost in it all is how bad Castellano's ride was BEFORE he swung out.

He put himself in that position by refusing to pass Romp, who was running erratically, down the back stretch. Could have gone by at any time but seemed afraid to pass him inside. Then he finally swings outside and almost kills Garcia and others. Terrible.

Anonymous said...

I wrote:

>Classic - Blind Luck, would love to have seen a match up between her and Zenyatta sometime this year. May try Unrivaled Belle in her favored place position.<

No, I did not reverse the exacta, ouch.