Let's Gamble

- A half hour to go until the coverage begins. It's an absolutely gorgeous fall day in New York City, just an ideal day to....

....sit in front of the TV for seven hours??

Oh well. You have to go with the weather you have, not the weather you wish you had.

The buildup on ESPN this week has been intense as promised by, so I was somewhat hasty in jumping on the network's case. I still would like to see an effort to establish the Breeders Cup as a brand and an important network property in addition to the week-long promotion blitz; but hopefully with the new Breeders Cup Challenge series, there will be an effort to do just that; as well as getting new viewers to not only watch, but be active participants.

But more on this another time. As Joe Mantegna said in David Mamet's overlooked gem Things Change, "Let's gamble." Have a great, great day.

NYRA Gets Cash Call

- NYRA limps on with an $8 million loan, at 4% interest, from the State Comptroller's office.

Scott Reif, a spokesman for Gov. George Pataki, said the state's bankruptcy lawyer advised it was "the most prudent course to take to protect the state's assets and its taxpayers and insure the continued racing in New York State." [Albany Times Union]

NYRA said that the money will keep them operating through the end of the year. Bill Nader told the NY Post: "They've already wired the money into our account." Now there, that wasn't so freaking hard, was it?

NYRA was attempting to get the court to approve a $50 million credit line at above-market rates; Matt Hegarty of the Daily Racing Form identified the prospective lender as SB Capital, a New York hedge fund. Just speculating here, but it seems to me that NYRA must have done some kind of selling job to the hedge fund if they are indeed willing to lend them the money. Without at least a reasonable prospect that a) the courts would rule that NYRA owns the land, or b) NYRA retains the franchise and thus, gets the racino built, why would they make such a loan? It's pretty clear at this point that NYRA will never see a penny of casino revenue by December 31, 2007 since everyone agrees that will take a year to build the racino and get it up and running. How would any lender recoup its investment if NYRA goes out of existence with no claim to the land, and with no casino? Hedge funds are prone to take risks to be sure, but they're not in the business of giving money away.

In order for the court to approve that loan, it's quite possible that it would have had to make a ruling on the land as one of the first orders of business. So perhaps the state, despite its insistence that it owns the land, is still hesitant to have that determined by a judge, and stepped in with its loan instead.

Eliot Spitzer, who will become the Governor-elect on Tuesday, reiterated his belief that NYRA's land claim is a sham. "The bankruptcy action and the effort to claim the state does not own the tracks is a canard," said Spitzer spokesman Paul Larrabee. Hearing statements like that certainly do not bode well for NYRA's chances to retain the franchise, considering that Spitzer will ultimately approve the new operator. Nor are statements like this from Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno.

"There's $19 million in cash flow that we legislated, available to them, so what they did I believe was unnecessary and disruptive...The people that made that decision made a bad decision for the people of this state." [Saratogian]

But in the meantime, racing will go on uninterrupted. NYRA officials met with horsemen at the Big A, and trainer Richard Violette told the Form: "It was a short and sweet meeting....The assumption is that it is going to be business as usual. That's the hope." Violette is a VP of the New York Thoroughbred Horseman Association, and a staunch supporter of Empire Racing. Bill Nader had a somewhat different take on the meeting: "We got a very warm reception....Everybody seemed to be behind us."

A spokesperson for the state's Lottery Division told Newsday that the filing prevents the agency from making a decision on the video lottery deal; but they've had the agreement between NYRA and MGM since June without acting on it. And though we reported the other day that bankruptcy lawyers feel that the filing prohibits the state from terminating NYRA's franchise prematurely, some critics believe that NYRA's contract should be ended.

"The governor has every right to take away the franchise right now because of malfeasance," said state Sen. John Sabini (D-Jackson Heights). "The NYRA situation is so broken, I don't see how it could be fixed." [Newsday]

And, while all this transpires, Yonkers Raceway's casino rolls on, even as fire code violations persist, and the November 3 date to resume the racing that is required by law came and went without a sulky in sight. Not only that, the casino will unveil 500 new machines this weekend. Nov 10 was given as the new date to start racing. I wouldn't bet on it. Unbelievable.

Selections and Second Thoughts - Pt 2

Mile

Gorella
Araafa
Echo of Light

I saw that Jerry Brown of Thoroughgraph thinks that Gorella could bounce given her win three weeks ago in the First Lady. I still think she won that race with ease, and just cruised along until midstretch; that's what I see when I watch the race anyway. Echo of Light could be the speed, or maybe Badge of Silver. Since there are no internal fractions on the European horses, we have no idea whatsoever. Another paradox in the world of handicapping, the way we can demand such minutae in some areas, but go strictly on guesswork on others. Anyway, in Nick Mordin's analysis, he says that Echo of Light is four-for-four around left-handed courses.

Distaff

Pine Island
Round Pond
Happy Ticket

I'm liking Round Pond a bit more after reading Matz's comments about the bad foot that hampered her training for the Beldame. You can see the gap in works before the Beldame, as well as the work just a few days before her prior race, a close second in her first race in over five months. She has a similar work for the Distaff, five furlongs in 59 flat the other day, and I can just feel the soothing effects of the Polytrack on her little feet.

Steve Crist also left out Fleet Indian and Balletto in his picks, but said that he wouldn't let either knock him out of anything. I'd say the same about Fleet Indian, but I won't use Balletto on top in any tickets.

Turf

Cacique
English Channel
T H Approval

I like Cacique a lot here. All of the Europeans are question marks here to me. With Hurricane Run, it just doesn't feel right; it seems almost scattershot the way he was sent here so soon after the Champion. I could end up feeling foolish when he wins by five lenghts; or he could be the most vulnerable favorite of the day. Scorpion is the invader that scares me the most, and I'll probably have him on top somewhere or other. TH Approval is getting a lot of support in Europe; he was being quoted at around 12-1 earlier today.

Classic

Bernardini
Sun King
Perfect Drift

It seems a logical case to me to try to make money by leaving out the prospective second and third choices on the theory that Bernardini will be so dominant that the better horses that try to challenge him will be beaten into submission. Thus, you get horses that avoided the frey picking up the pieces at the end. I'll also use David Junior, and, with Patrick Valenzuela replacing John McKee, Lawyer Ron.

So that's it. It's been a lot of writing about a lot of horses both here and in my horse-by-horse previews of the Juvenile, Sprint, Distaff, and Turf that are now up on the website of the Breeders Cup Special (go there and click on 'House of Value' in the column on the right).

Looking at my top picks, they seem a bit chalk-y to me overall. Besides the longshot I selected in the Juvenile Fillies, I picked three likely favorites in Ouija Board, Henny Hughes and Bernardini. I have probable second choices in Pine Island and Gorella, and perhaps Cacique as well. Even Scat Daddy is listed as the second choice, though I think he'll be higher than Principle Secret. So for any talk that may have come from me about this being a day to shoot for the moon was empty I guess. I think that when I look at races for so, so long, I tend to drift towards the more logical conclusions; whereas I can be more spontaneous and creative when handicapping by the seat of my pants.

But there's still money to be made with favorites or second choices on top, with more creative choices filling the bottom of the tickets. Plus I'll be watching the board and making adjustments. I don't at all foresee me jumping onto any horse that I haven't liked up to this point, but I could elevate horses picked for minor awards if there are surprises on the board with horses such as Round Pond and Great Hunter, or if others like Pine Island or Gorella are bet too low. And I'm hoping that I'm in a position of being live with Bernardini in the Pick Four (or even the late double) so that I can fool around a bit in the Classic.

I'm going to stop now. Good luck everybody, and thanks so much for reading and commenting.

Selections and Second Thoughts Pt. 1

- It's been a few days since I started analyzing the races, and though I haven't made any major changes, some of my opinions have evolved, especially in the four races I wrote about for the Breeders Cup Special coming out later tonight.

So I'll go through the races, do a top three selections thing, and express some second and third 17th thoughts.

Juvenile Fillies

Quick Little Miss
Cash Included
Satulagi

I don't really have a strong opinion in this race. Cash Included, I think, will be a solid favorite, but not one that I want to go down with in the first race. So I'll make my wild longshot stab right off the bat. I liked her more seriously before the posts were drawn, and the 13 post definitely hurts. She has seven lengths to make up on Cash Included, but she lost tons of ground last time and closed well. She had a nice work with a strong gallop out the other day. Will probably be caught wide again, but at 30-1 seems worth a shot. As for Satulagi? I dunno, just threw her in; she's bred well to handle dirt.

Juvenile

Scat Daddy
Great Hunter
Street Sense

Street Sense, 20-1 morning line, is one that I'm taking a closer look at. He ran 48.5 feet more than Circular Quay in the Breeders Futurity and lost by a nose. So if Circular Quay is 5-2 as he is in the morning line, don't you just have to like him at 20-1?

I got a glowing report from a knowledgeable observer on the scene on Great Hunter. I'd kinda like to switch and put him on top, but I picked Scat Daddy in the Special. I will have him on top of my tickets in some manner for sure. This is a tough race, and there are other horses I like, including Principle Secret and King of the Roxy. Circular Quay is definitely a win threat, but I think he'll be egregiously overbet, in which case he's worth betting against in a field of this depth.

F&M Turf

Ouija Board
Wait A While
Film Maker

I'll be rooting for Ouija Board; it will be a thrill to watch one of the best horses in the world in action; and one who has traveled all over to meet the biggest challenges the sport can offer. But Wait A While has been a phenom, and a win by this three-year old would be electrifying. I know some have expressed concern over her ability to get the distance, but I don't know about that given the way she's run at ten furlongs. I'll use her in my Pick 3's.

Sprint

Henny Hughes
Thor's Echo
Siren Lure

I've moved Thor's Echo up. I know the sheets guys are expecting him to bounce off his big number chasing Bordonaro in the Ancient Title. But he had a lot of time off after running second at Dubai, and this is his third start of the form cycle. He might be able to suck along the rail, and could provide some value with Henny on top. As for Bordonaro, I'm not going to use him; Bill Spawr seemed hesitant after the Ancient Title, saying that the horse preferred more time off. Having said that, he's never lost in three tries when running back with four weeks off. But that's what the man said, and that's the way he's campaigned him this year. This is a horse I'm clearly looking for excuses to exclude.

I'll be back soon with the final four races.

Overlooking Invasor?

- Nick Mordin is a British handicapper and author, and he has a website in which he peddles his selections for a modest fee. I obtained a copy of his picks and commentary for the Breeders Cup, and it's quite fascinating and opinionated. It's paid content and I do respect that, so I'm just going to reprint a brief excerpt, but I thought you'd find this well worth the read, whether you agree or not.

[Bernardini's] going to have to withstand a challenge from a horse (Invasor) that can make two big moves in a race and then have enough left to run like crazy all the way through the final furlong, a horse that has the speed and stamina to post seriously fast times at every distance from five furlongs to a mile and a half.

Actually I think Invasor will annihilate the Classic field and that Bernardini won't even run second. These days thoroughbreds in general and American ones in particular are so speedily bred that long races really take it out of them, especially when they're only three years of age. It's asking an awful lot to expect one to produce peak performances both in May and then again right at the end of the year at such distances. Sure Sunday Silence, Unbridled and AP Indy all won U.S. classics in the same year that they took this race. But that was way back in 1989, 1990 and 1992 when the breed had far more stamina than it does now. Since then the twelve American Classic winners that have run in the..Classic as three year olds have all lost. The last eight didn't even reach the first three. I wouldn't want to bet on Bernardini ending that particular losing sequence.

Mordin feels that Invasor's Whitney was "one of the most impressive displays I've ever seen from a racehorse." He cites his recovery from the stumble at the start to grab the lead in the stretch, and his ability to, as he saw it, actually accelerate at the end in order to hold off Sun King; last eighth in 12 2/5.

Wow, that's a different opinion than we've been hearing around here for sure. I know that I and some others (but not reader throwaway) are standing against Invasor on the basis of his disrupted training schedule and unwanted layoff. If he had run creditably in Gold Cup, then I wouldn't be comfortable excluding him from my tickets. I watched the Whitney again, and I don't quite see what he did, but as we've recently discussed, different people see different things in the same race, and who's to say he's not right?

NYRA Bankruptcy Filing Mars Big Weekend

- The skies over Louisville are still sunny, and are expected to remain so as the sport moves into its second biggest weekend of the year. Any figurative dark clouds that gather are courtesy of NYRA's filing for bankruptcy on Thursday. It must be a bizarre feeling for those New York regulars who are in Kentucky now. The filing comes one year after NYRA itself hosted the Breeders Cup, and just a few days after the association rejected a loan offer that they termed a double cross and backtrack by the state.

The filing showed that NYRA's financial obligations go far beyond the $19 million they've been bickering over.

The state is owed nearly $100 million from loans and interest, including $13.5 million from Empire Development Corp. and $6 million from the Lottery Division loaned since last year and $76 million the association borrowed over many years from the state Thoroughbred Racing Capital Investment Fund. State taxes of more than $600,000 are owed.

Other big creditors are Nassau County, owed $17 million, and the U.S. Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., owed $12.3 million. [Albany Times Union]

But the most significant part of the filing could very well be the one in which NYRA claimed that they own the land that the tracks sit on, and could sell it for $1 billion.

The filing should get a federal judge to rule on the controversial issue of who owns the tracks the state or NYRA, said NYRA's lawyer Brian Rosen. If the court rules the tracks belong to NYRA, it could borrow against the property or sell it.
.....
Already, Rosen said, a real estate company and a financing firm have partnered as SB Kimco to immediately provide $15 million to NYRA, with another $35 million loan promised as long as the bankruptcy judge allows it.

Besides gaining protection from its creditors, it's also well worth noting that, as the Times-Union piece reports, bankruptcy protects NYRA from being stripped of the franchise before it expires at the end of next year. So much for an early takeover, as some at Empire Racing have hoped for.

NYRA chairman Steve Duncker called the delays in approving the management agreement with MGM "inexplicable."

"It is all the more mystifying given the fact that VLT's have been put in operation at eight non-NYRA tracks around the state." [Daily Racing Form]

The Lottery Division has had the agreement with MGM since June and has failed to approve it. It seems inconceivable that the governor of this state would allow the situation to reach this point. Perhaps they are so confident of a favorable ruling on the land issue that they allowed the situation to proceed to court. If they're wrong, the franchise could be tied up in court for years. For NYRA, this is truly their last stand.

- I'm working today on some Breeders Cup race previews for Sean and Joe Clancy's Breeders Cup Special, so posting here will be light at best for a few more hours at least. I think I've said enough about these races anyway; we all have at this point. Let's get to the action already. But in reviewing the races again, I've of course come up with some additional insights.....and likely with far too much information. So I will be back a bit later with some second thoughts, and my final picks.

The Breeders Bowl

- Hank Goldberg was just in the booth for the Louisville-West Virginia game, and they were talking up the Breeders Cup. When asked if he was more excited about this game or Saturday's races, he said that the Breeders Cup is like eight bowl games on the same day; nice set-up there. They've had a couple of live shots from a lit-up Churchill Downs, and a Breeders Cup Preview is promised for half time.

- It seemed a bit strange seeing the Form for the Breeders Cup with the horses listed in post position order after getting so used to seeing them listed alphabetically. I have to get used to looking at the bottom for Balletto instead of at the top.

With all the excitement about Saturday, the opening of the Cushion Track at Hollywood got overshadowed, but the reactions and quotes are quite familiar, despite the fact that two horses, later determined to be uninjured, were pulled up prematurely. Victor Espinoza said: "Most of the horses I've ridden feel totally different on it. It's more bouncy and the horses have more confidence." [LA Times] Here's an interesting quote by trainer Mark Glatt:

“What I've seen is that minor inflammation in joints, since I've trained here, has gone away, versus Del Mar this summer where those problems would have continued on....I have to believe it's much kinder because I'm seeing some minor problems go away, almost to the point of being nonexistent.” [SignOnSanDiego.com]

An interesting disparity in results; Wednesday's races were dominated by closers and it looked like it was Keeneland all over again. But today's resuls instead favored speed and close to the pace, which raises the question whether any adjustments were made.

But it's almost scary the way all of the artificial tracks thus far have received such effusive praise with nary a disparaging word. And Cushion Track - just the name makes me feel all bouncy and playful. It's starting to remind me of that Twilight Zone episode when the smiling aliens came to Earth with a book written in some Alienese entitled "To Serve Mankind," and as the stupid humans were loading onto spaceships to visit their planet, the interpreters discovered that it was a cookbook. Let's hope that the era of synthetic tracks doesn't end with Rod Serling leaning against the sixteenth pole. "Little did they know that they were racing..straight into......."

- Halftime, and I had to endure Lou Holtz, who makes me sick, in order to get to a brief pre-recorded segment with Randy Moss and Kenny Maine, who said with his characterstic smirk that all of "OO-ruguay" will go crazy if Invasor wins. Randy Moss said that Kiaran McLaughlin is confident with Invasor and feels that Bernardini's post position may make him vulnerable.

Notes - Nov 2

- Tom Albertrani is unfazed by Balleto's outside post draw, and blames her close losses on her difficulty in changing leads.

"Because she has that tendency of just wanting to hesitate a little bit in her races, it causes her to lose that momentum she needs that makes the difference between losing and winning by a head or so. It might have cost her a couple of races this year." [Bloodhorse]

However, despite that, it still seems to me that she had Spun Sugar and Fleet Indian absolutely dead to rights, and I wonder if the issue is more in her head than her legs. But having said that, it seems to me that she and Pine Island are the horses with the most upside in the race.

- Steve Davidowitz has some tips on identifying false favorites in his latest column in the Form's paid DRF Plus section, and talks about the Juvenile:

The favorite may have no discernible edge over a field loaded with fit and ready rivals.

In the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, for example, morning-line favorite Circular Quay and second choice Principle Secret are both promising youngsters with good efforts at the Juvenile's 1 1/16-mile distance. But there is little separating them from a large contingent of lightly raced, improving contenders. These include graded stakes winners Great Hunter, Scat Daddy, King of the Roxy, and Stormello, as well as graded-stakes-placed Pegasus Wind, C P West, and Street Sense. Given the depth of competition, taking anything less than 5-1 on either Circular Quay or Principle Secret would seem to violate all sensible rules of value betting.

I know a lot of people, including myself, who will be happy if Perfect Drift's trainer Murray Johnson is prophetic about the odds for the Classic.

"For him to be even money he'd have to have such a huge percentage of the pool....I think he'll be 2-1 or better. But then you're getting fantastic prices with horses like Suave (30-1) and Perfect Drift." [Louisville Courier-Journal]

Whoa, 2-1? Or better? I'd take some of that action, wouldn't you?

The Classic

- "Go Bernardini!!!" wrote Walter. Right on, I thought when I read that (until I realized that he's saying that at least partly because he has a future bet at inflated odds).

Sometimes I wonder why I am rooting for him to win, and to win impressively. He's owned by a filthy rich sheikh and is probably going to retire after only eight races so he can make even more money. For a man of his means and supposed sporting nature, it seems a small sacrifice to bring him back for one more year. It would cost him less in one year of lost stud fees than he spends in the space of 90 seconds for unproven yearlings at the sales pavilion. The Classic would be a much nicer story if Lava Man won.

But there's something about having the firm knowledge that I was in the presence of true greatness that puts everything else aside. I won't be at the Breeders Cup, but I saw Bernardini (AP Indy) win the Jim Dandy (Galloped under wraps) and Travers (In control, drew off) at Saratoga, and the Jockey Club Gold Cup (Under wraps stretch). I stood on the backstretch of Saratoga and watched him work out twice, even though I didn't know it at the time.

Some people scoff at the notion that a horse that raced only eight times and never conceded weight to opponents could ever be classifed with the great handicaps horses of the all-too-distant past. But greatness comes in different forms. Here in the early 21st century, when it comes to colts anyway, the fleeting form of greatness is the only one we're likely to see. It's fair to question the quality and quantity of who he's been facing, as Scoop did in reaction to a writer speculating that Bernardini could be acclaimed as one of the all time greats. But it was the effortlessness with which he won that made those races so amazing. You just don't see horses dominate Grade 1 horses with that consistency and absurd ease. That's what makes Bernardini great.

Pending the Classic of course.

So how could he lose? Haskin jokingly (I think) presents a scenario in which Kent Desormeaux guns Suave to the lead.

No one is going to be paying much attention to you. Lava Man will be watching for Bernardini, who will be watching Lava Man and Invasor, who will be watching Bernardini and Lava Man. Who would be foolish enough to go after a horse who just finished dead-last in the Woodward (gr. I)? [Bloodhorse]

Ah...not likely.

Somewhat less fanciful is this scenario presented by the Saratogian's Jeff Scott:

It's one thing to run away from an honest but limited horse like Wanderin Boy or an injured Bluegrass Cat. But what if Bernardini has Lava Man stay with him for 9 ½ furlongs, and then has to deal with Invasor -- and maybe Sun King and even George Washington -- over the final sixteenth? What if it turns out there really is a Racing God, and Perfect Drift finally uncorks the big, dramatic finish his fans have been awaiting for the past five years? It could still get interesting.

Could it? One thing for sure, if Bernardini can stalk Lava Man and then ease by him the way he's done to lesser opponents, then he must truly be great. Lava Man (Slew City Slew) is as tough as they come - he literally ran himself into exhaustion last year in the Pacific Classic and had to be vanned off. His brave performance in the Hollywood Gold Cup remains one of the best of the year.

I think that Castellano would do well to try and pilot Bernardini as he did in the Preakness; let Lava Man do his thing, along with Brother Derek, perhaps Suave and Lawyer Ron, and unleash a sweeping burst past the field in upper stretch. I don't think he wants to get involved in a protracted duel with Lava Man. That's the only scenario I can see in which he could possibly lose. I don't think it would be to Lava Man; but rather, they would set the race up for someone else.

I don't like Invasor (Candy Stripes). He suffered a serious setback in training when forced to miss the Gold Cup, and there's no way he could be where McLaughlin would want him to be. I agree with Nick when he wrote that This is a case of we have to run him, its the Breeder's Cup.

Sun King (Charismatic) hasn't run a bad race since turning his career around at Keeneland in April. Unfortunately, he also hasn't won since that day, but he's unleashed his rally every time. As a dead closer, he cedes his ability to control his own fate, but if, by some strange chance, this race falls apart up front, he could be the prime candidate to pass them all.

David Junior (Pleasant Tap) hasn't raced since taking the Eclipse Stakes in July, and he'll retire to Japan after this race. We know that he's bred to handle the dirt - his half brother Kid Carousel is a winner on the dirt, and he's out of an Irish River half sister to Wild Event. But I think he's more bred for the grass; this is the direct family of Paradise Creek and Theatrical. I have no clue how he'll do on the dirt, and neither do you I don't believe, but he's a high-quality horse running at his best distance.

Premium Tap (Pleasant Tap) seems to be a wise-guy horse based on his improvement in the Woodward, and the 5th in the Kentucky Cup that can be easily explained away. I think it's a stretch, despite the fact that he beat Sun King in the Woodward. Perfect Drift (Dynaformer) closed in 11.4 to get second despite being blocked at the eighth pole in the Kentucky Cup; and as we know, in his prior race, the track at Del Mar was tailored to his detriment for the Pacific Classic. Starting with his first Classic in 2002, he's finished 12th, 6th, 4th, and 3rd. What kind of exacta would he create behind Bernardini?

Giacomo (Holy Bull) is one-for-one at Churchill. George Washington (Danehill) is getting a little vacation abroad before beginning his stud career. Think of how much money they're leaving on the table by not running in the Mile.

Likes: Go Bernardini!!!

Against: As much as I admire Lava Man and I think he'll most definitely be a factor, he'll be facing the direct wrath of Bernardini, and as second choice no less. If the latter really has the extra gear that he's hinted at so strongly, Lava Man could well finish clear out of the money. Also don't like Invasor, George Washington, Suave, Brother Derek, Giacomo. If any of those finish in the money I likely won't win.

Exotics: I'm thinking that I'll try to make some money using Bernardini on top with Sun King, Perfect Drift, David Junior, and thinking about Premium Tap.

Fair Skies Coming

- The track was sealed and sloppy at Churchill today, but it's supposed to be gorgeous tomorrow straight through for the big day, according to weather.com.

Despite the forecast, I have to say that I'm rather shocked that they ran two races on a turf course labeled 'yielding' today They would never do that here in NY on Breeders Cup week; they'd go off-the-turf if the jockeys were sweating too much.

- On The Works, Lava Man galloped on the turf today rather than brave the sloppy track. David Junior wasn't sweaty. CP West got a bad review for his gallop; Tom Amoss noted that the horse had a quick work the other day - five furlongs in 1:00.29 with a full gallop out around the turn - and implied that it took something out of him. The boys were liking Too Much Bling.

- ESPN will crank up their promotional efforts tomorrow night during the college football game in Louisville during which they'll be live shots from Churchill Downs. I wonder if somebody, somewhere, actually had the foresight to schedule the game there this week. Or if it's just a coincidence. I'll assume it was the former.

Greg Avioli told Ruben Bailey that he gives ESPN an 'A' for their marketing efforts. I do really want to believe that, and I'll check out the college game tomorrow as long as Suzy Kolber isn't there.

ESPN will add some new graphics, including the virtual yard markers on the track that we see used in Europe, where the coverage is miles above what we have here. Perhaps someone there has watched some of the European coverage, and if so, we'll be better off for sure.

Trevor Denman should be a great addition for fans and newcomers alike. Denman has managed to stay fresh for two decades now, and I can't think of any other announcer I could ever say that about; even for half that time in many cases. When Durkin first started on NBC, his race calls were one of the specific reasons that I'd be excited for the day. Though I still think he's a top announcer, I can't say that's been the case the last few years. But Denman is definitely an extra reason to watch.

Post Positions Drawn

- Here are the fields courtesy of the Form.

A brief look at some winners and losers by race.

Juv Fillies: Favorites Cash Included (3-1) and Dreaming of Anna (4-1) drawn snugly inside. A couple of longer shots that I like, Quick Little Miss (30-1) and Her Majesty (10-1) didn't fare quite as well.

Juvenile: OK draws for all of the main contenders. Pegasus Wind will have to clear some speed inside of him from the ten.

F&M Turf: Two post for Ouija Board, nice.

Sprint: Nice draw for Henny Hughes (2-1). He should be able to settle in nicely behind Bordonaro and perhaps Thor's Echo breaking from the rail.

Mile: Librettist (6-1) and Aussie Rules (10-1) may be the biggest losers of the day. Gorella (4-1) should be OK from the 12 considering her style; but a great draw for Araafa.

Distaff: 8-5 on Fleet Indian? I'll take 5-1 on Pine Island for sure. Balleto draws the outside but should be OK for her late run. Not so for Happy Ticket from the 13.

Turf: It's a ten [oops!] 11 horse field at a mile and a half, so post position may not matter too much. But there could be significance in Cacique (4-1) drawing inside of English Channel (7-2). The horses are so close that every little bit counts. In the Arlington Million, Cacique broke one stall inside of English Channel and used that advantage to establish early position that Pletcher's horse never overcame.

Classic: What difference does it make? Slight negative for Invasor breaking from #11.

Wednesday Morning Notes - Nov 1

- NYRA, if they still exist by then, will run four Grade 1's on the first Saturday of next year's Saratoga meet in cooperation with the Breeders' Cup "win and you're in" Challenge. The Grade I races to be held that day are the Whitney Handicap (winner qualifying for the Breeders' Cup Classic), Go for Wand (Distaff), Alfred G. Vanderbilt (Sprint) and Diana (Filly & Mare Turf). [Albany Times Union]

- Post positions will be drawn at 11:15 today (Wednesday). No live coverage on ESPN, but they will have a one hour Today at the Breeders' Cup on ESPN2 at 2 PM. ESPN and Breeders Cup officials were talking it up yesterday. Breeders Cup interim CEO Greg Avioli said: "The decision to go to ESPN was not a ratings-based decision," he said. "It was designed for significantly more promotion over the months leading up to the Breeders' Cup to grow the property." [Louisville Courier-Journal] You can decide for yourself if that's been the case. But for next year, ESPN is in on the Breeders Cup Challenge, and will televise all six dates.

"As opposed to having 80 or 90 or 100 good hours of horse racing that's nice but disparate, let's tie it together," [ESPN VP Len] DeLuca said of the network's strategy to both acquire the Cup and create the Cup Challenge. "Let's create a season." [Lexington Herald Reader]

- Seems as if Dubai Escapade wouldn't have run even if she didn't have inflammation in her ankle, because they're both owned by one of the sheikhs or another; i can't really keep up with which sheikh is which these days. But somewhat overlooked in Discreet Cat's avoidance of Bernardini is the fact that the sheikh's brother's Invasor will take on the big guy. Do you think he'd be running if the Head Sheikh really though he had a chance to upset Bernardini?

- The NY Post reports today that NYRA has not yet officially responded to the state's offer to parcel out the $19 million in installments.

Notes - Oct 31

- Tom Amoss said on The Works that Cash Included will blow away the Juvenile Fillies field.

- Shug McGaughey, trainer of Pine Island, said "I think Balletto is the filly to beat....I think all of her races have been good and she'll probably get a good pace scenario and she's a good closer." [Downey Report]

- The Europeans were on the track, and we saw a bunch of them on The Works just walking and jogging for the most part. Amoss argued heatedly with Frank Lyons over David Junior; Amoss didn't like the way the horse was sweating; Lyons brushed it off, saying that he was just getting used to the warmer climes.

Hurricane Run was on the track, and the Thoroughbred Times reports:

A dappled Hurricane Run emerged from the barn and proved feisty once out of his confines, ducking in while moving through the gap after leaving the track. [Thoroughbred Times]

Ouija Board was out too, and Robin Trevor-Jones, Ed Dunlop's "travelling head lad," said: "She knew where she was and she had a good look around." [Guardian] She's never raced at Churchill, so I guess she must have recognized the twin spires.

And TVG not only didn't have a tape of Bernardini's workout at Belmont Tuesday, but Todd Schrmmmppfff said that the work was on Monday.

The Turf

- I prefer Cacique over English Channel, and the latter is the horse I'd love to have a reason to toss in this race. I loved Cacique's last two races, especially the one in which he completed the exacta with The Tin Man at Arlington. I thought he ran fantastic that day given the pace scenario in which The Tin Man, after six uncontested furlongs in 1:15, came home in 23.46 and 22.71. Cacique actually gained ground. He confirmed that effort in my mind with his win in the Man O'War, in which he came home in 10.95 in the mile and three-eighths, beating two horses, Showing Up and Go Deputy, who I rate highly.

He's had two months off, and Frankel said he's thriving on the Polytrack.

Cacique (Ire) (Danehill)....isn't a good work horse. He's lazy in the mornings. But at Keeneland (Sunday) he worked really well. And he worked alone; I didn't have to push him with something else." [Brisnet]

Frankel also mentioned something that Mr. Ed referred to the other day when he informed us that CD had 3 inches of rain last week.

One good thing about him, [Cacique] likes to run on the soft grass. And this course should be that way Saturday. They've had rain here and more is supposed to happen today (Tuesday), and that course is not going to be hard on Saturday." [Brisnet]

I have no reason to think English Channel (Smart Strike) is not going to run a great race unless he gets screwed in the post draw (which may have been announced by the time you read this). In fact, I'd admit that the two times that Cacique finished in front of him, he enjoyed a tactical advantage in the race. Unless the draw goes squarely against him I just prefer Cacique; just my gut feeling that he's a better horse at this time (or perhaps because I'm rooting for Frankel over Pletcher).

I could be a little hepped up on Go Deputy (Deputy Minister) if his last race was Sept 22 instead of Oct 22. This horse has really improved for Pletcher, but two weeks after an all-out second at Woodbine seems a lot to ask. He hasn't had a workout, and I'm interested to see if Pletcher really runs him, and what he says if he does.

T.H. Approval could hit the board at a decent price. He was taken out of his game when he had to try and prompt The Tin Man in the Hirsch, and still almost caught him in a final quarter of 22.4. When he's been able to sit back and get some pace up front, he's been very consistent with his rallies. His last four tries at this distance have resulted in a win and three close seconds in Grade 2 races. He fits well with Solis and at the bottom of my exotic tickets.

Alan Shuback writes of Hurricane Run in the Form's BC Advance: "If Hurricane Run, who has been facing better horses throughout his career, hasn't gone completely off the bubble, he will be difficult to beat in a return to his favorite distance."

Hurricane Run (Monteju) not only comes off two disappointing efforts and what is widely considered to be a general decline in form, but those two races came on Oct 1 and Oct 14, which makes me wonder, as does Steve Davidowitz in DRF Plus:

This raises at least two questions: Was Hurricane Run sent to the BC Turf as a mere afterthought? Or, is he over the top? In either case, Hurricane Run would appear to be a vulnerable favorite.

He led early in his last race, the Champion Stakes, which is run down a straightaway at a mile and a quarter; he should appreciate the return to his tracking style at a mile and a half, even if he's running in the wrong right direction.

Red Rocks (Galileo) is a three-year old who will be facing older horses for the first time. He was further back than usual in his last and hung late in the mile and three-quarter St. Leger; but his prior three at a mile and a half were all close seconds, including one to Arc winner Rail Link. He'd have to improve like that one did in order to compete here, but his trainer is confident. He has an unusual pedigree, being inbred 2x3 to Sadlers Wells and his full brother Fairy King, in addition to Mr. Prospector 4x3.

Scorpion (Monteju) was one of the best three-year olds in Europe last year - he set a track record for a mile and a half at Longchamps - but has raced just once this year, on Oct 8th after a year layoff; a second in a listed stakes.

“We barely got him back in time for a run at the Curragh and he ran a lovely race in very bad ground which he would have hated,” [Aidan O'Brien] admitted.

“Kieren [Fallon] looked after him and he just got a bit tired in the last 50 yards, but we were delighted with that run. He’s a horse who would love fastish ground and obviously he’s going to improve again, but we are very happy with him and delighted he’ll be running.” [unison.ie]

He's been mentioned for Hong Kong, so he does have other objectives down the road.

Likes: Shuback wrote: Cacique was a low-end Group 2 type in France who is unlikely to stay 12 furlongs. That's kinda cold, doncha think? Looks to me that he can stay; and I guess he's just improved for Frankel. He wouldn't be the first.

Against: Hurricane Run. Third race in five weeks....just doesn't smell right. English Channel on price, but I can't leave him out if he draws well.

Exotics: TH Approval and yeah, I guess Red Rocks and Scorpion

The Turf (Getting to It Soon)

- I'm just about ready to move on to the Turf, but I'm still thinking about the Mile and the Distaff. Steve D, who likes the outspoken Democrat Bobby Frankel's Badge of Silver in the former, says: I understand that the Beyers have been declining, but he ran his last two races in 1:32 4/5 & 1:32 3/5! What's a horse got to do to earn a decent fig? And Nick, who likes Aragorn, adds: 1:32 is 1:32, pool table grass course or not.

So what is up with the figs of 103 and 100 in his last two races? Although I don't really even want to know, since it provides a handy excuse for me to throw out a horse I don't wanna bet, I'll go straight to the source and ask Andy Beyer during his chat tomorrow night.

And the Distaff seems be to drawing a variety of ideas with the common thread that there should be a lot of pace. Nick mentioned Lemons Forever, which scares me; ever since he picked Superfly (or was it Andromeda's Hero) to beat me in the exacta a couple of months ago, I get scared when he goes against me. I'm thinking back to Pleasant Home last year, who I picked but didn't bet, and remember that I was looking for a horse with upside, and she fit the bill. I don't see much upside in this race; if you like Round Pond or Spun Sugar or Healthy Addiction or Happy Ticket or Pool Land, I think you're basically hoping that your selection will rebound from what was for whatever reason a subpar effort, and run back to form flashed earlier in the spring or summer. I don't think there's any expectation that any of these are going to move forward in a big way; just that they can run to back form. That's the way I see it anyway, and it doesn't mean I won't have a ticket on any....well, some of these at the right price.

Anyway, I keep coming back to Pine Island, and I have to admit that I've kinda fallen for this filly at this point. I'm naturally drawn to closers to start with, and I just love her consistency, especially so given the different track surfaces, configurations, and conditions she's encountered. She's just unfazed, puts her head down and goes to work. I looked back at Pleasant Home's pp's coming into the race (pdf, scroll down), and they're actually fairly similar looking. Not the same situation to be sure, since Pine Island will be facing older stakes f&m's for the first time. But Pleasant Home exploded to a 107 from a prior best of 95. And the pace in this year's race could fall apart similarly. With a little luck, I think Pine Island has to be right there if that's the case.

Of course, my affection for her only goes down to a certain price, I dunno, say 7-2 no, higher. I think Happy Ticket is the most likely of the above to run well; Round Pond next. I've moved Healthy Addiction into the 'against' column. She did not look like a sharp mare in her recent prep.

- Bummer that Dubai Escapade will miss the Sprint after she was found to have some inflammation in her front ankle, the Breeders' Cup press office reported on Tuesday. [Brisnet] This race has changed drastically with the defections of she and Commentator. I imagine that the connections of Bordonaro are pretty happy. I think it just helps Henny Hughes. He'll be close, and the less horses in front that he has to pass or go around when they're tiring, the easier it makes it for him.

News and Notes - Oct 31

- Here's more on NYRA's refusal of a deal that would release the remaining $19 of its bailout in installments. Faced with impending bankruptcy, Charles Hayward, feeling that it's too short and slippery, still refuses to grab onto this latest lifeline offered by the state.

The deal is unsatisfactory...because it would require more action from the Non-Profit Racing Association Oversight Board, which voted on the new deal Monday, and still comes without approval of NYRA's application to open a casino at Aqueduct Race Track.

Further, the loan deal, Hayward said, seems to be a double-cross.

"We had an indication directly from the people in the governor's office that this was going to go a different way," Hayward said. "This resolution ... throws up more hurdles than what was in the original legislation." [Albany Times Union]

As he did last December, Hayward hardly conducts himself as a man desparate for cash. Using the threat of bankruptcy, he instead plays as if he's the one in control, and you have to admire his moxie if nothing else. NYRA's back may be against the wall, but it instead always seems as if it's the state that's on the defensive. By the way, Hayward also correctly mentioned the casino at Yonkers, wondering how it could possibly have been allowed to open despite years of dumping raw sewage in the Bronx River and a lawsuit by horse owners against the track for failing to run racing.

- Let's go back to last night's halftime on ESPN. If there's someone out there who was brave enough to tolerate Tony Kornheiser for three hours, please let us know if there was any significant Breeders Cup promotion in the second half (I counted two 15-second ads, one during the first half and another at halftime).

The more I think about it, the more I'm totally galled by what happened at halftime. On the field, they ran something called the Halloween Derby, in which people dressed as embarrassing caricatures of the ESPN crew raced across the field. I thought this was obviously going to be a lead-in to a mention of the Breeders Cup but nah, it was just a shameless promotion of itself. I can't believe that they would actually have a race - complete with "they're off" and a race caller - and not try and relate it to the upcoming broadcast!

The Final Work

- Bernardini turned in the final workout of his preparation for the Classic - and probably of his career - this morning at Belmont. The specifics of it seem almost irrelevant, but for it was five furlongs in 1:02 4/5 according to Bloodhorse.

[Exercise rider Simon] Harris broke Bernardini off slowly as the pair went the first quarter in :26 and three furlongs in :38 1/5. After the five furlong work, they galloped out in 1:15 1/5.

Down the stretch, Harris was sitting still on Bernardini, high on the saddle and never moving his hands. Bernardini did everything on his own. His final quarter was :24 3/5.

"He was tough today. He gave me a hard time. I had to break my reins. I looked around to see if there was something coming, I didn't know what was going on. He's just full of himself. He's just that sharp right now....He galloped out really strong. The farther he goes the stronger he gets. He has never been doing better than he is now. He's ready." [Bloodhorse]

Tom Albertrani added: "He's a little stronger and sharper going into this race." Oh man. Here's the Form's Mike Welsch's take, and he got a slightly different time.

Bernardini (five furlongs in 1:03.32): Bernardini was given ample time to stretch his legs by exercise rider Simon Harris once he entered the racetrack immediately after the break and was obviously aggressive and ready to roll as he made his way down the backstretch to the five- furlong pole. Harris had his feet in the dashboard to keep the razor-sharp Bernardini from getting away too quickly and allowed him to settle into a nice early rhythm with an opening eighth and quarter splits in 13.75 and 26.52 seconds.

Bernardini was still well within himself when he hit the top of the stretch, fanned slightly wide off the turn, then switched leads right on cue and picked up the pace without urging to complete his final quarter-mile in 24.60. He appeared to get stronger the farther he went, galloping out another eighth-mile past the wire in 12.70 before getting a double gallop out time of 1:29.25 for seven furlongs.

(The official workout time was 1:02.86.)

Monday Night Notes - Oct 30

- Matt Hegarty reports in the Form that NYRA has rejected the terms under which the state would start to release the remaining $19 million of its loan.

The condition that troubled NYRA officials was a three-tiered release of the $19 million. Under the proposal, $7 million would be released on Wednesday, $6 million on Dec. 1, and the remaining $6 million on Jan. 1, 2007.

"We told them this morning we weren't going to accept the payment in that three-tiered structure," NYRA senior vice president Bill Nader said Monday. "We had discussions with the governor's staff on Friday, and the spirit of the deal is we got the $19 million this week. That changed today. We told them today that wasn't going to work. I just don't think there's going to be a willingness on our side to accept these terms."

- OK, there was a spot for the Breeders Cup at 9:28 on ESPN; the Head Chef timed it at 12 seconds, but I think it might have been 15. Then there was a nice spot during halftime about the same length. That led into something called the Halloween Derby, in which...y'know, I'm not even going to take the time to describe it. If you saw it, you'll know why; it was just embarrassing. It was a race, but there was no apparent tie-in at all to horse races. Now I'm done; I can't take these guys anymore. Let me know what happens.

- Been meaning to post the link tothis first-hand account of Australia's Cox Plate, as well as a big betting score for reader Stalusk, all the way from the other side of the world.

The Distaff

- Reader Mr. Ed wrote that he feels that Fleet Indian and Pine Island can be beaten in the Distaff, but wonders about the alternatives, writing that he can not make sense of this race after tossing those two.

I'd also like to beat the two top choices, and I don't really need a reason other than I want to. But as a handicapper, I always feel the need to build a case based on logic rather than just hope. The ones that I can't do so are the ones I'm timid about opposing.

It's hard to argue with a horse like Fleet Indian (Indian Charlie) who has won eight in a row, most by dominating margins, even if I think that the competition was marginal compared to what she'll see in the Distaff. She was taken out of her game in the Beldame, and instead of establishing a comfortable lead against mediocre fields, she had to rate behind the leaders, go four wide on the turn, and gamely hold off Balleto. It was an eye-opening performance to be sure. But she still had it relatively easy against just five opponents, sitting the trip behind three dueling leaders before overtaking them. I think that the post position will be key for Fleet Indian; a wide draw and she'll have to overcome a lot more than she ever has.

Pine Island (Arch), in my opinion, is a tougher bet against. You gotta love this filly. She fires every time - one turn, two turns, dirt, slop, or grass - and she's relentless, running with her head down as if to say "Get out of my way, I'm coming!" And come she does, never failing to finish at least within a length of the winner. She's improved her Beyer in every race, and had a nice work on Sunday, five furlongs in 1:01 1/5, galloping out three-quarters in 1:14. And she has classic Phipps breeding, out of a full sister to their 2005 Distaff winner Pleasant Home.

The rest of this field is, as Mr. Ed said, tough to figure. I think it may be the least interesting of the card. It consists of several fillies who look as if their best form may be in the past. But here's some ideas.

Happy Ticket (Anet) has had some tough races, and she may have tailed off after three consecutive gut-wrenching races in the spring. Since then, she ran second in the Clement Hirsch to Healthy Addiction (Boston Harbor); and then there was the sixth place debacle in the Spinster. However, she was caught wide on both turns against Healthy Addiction in the Hirsch, and had all that trouble at Keeneland when she was checked very sharply midstretch. She never runs a bad race, really, and perhaps has one more in her for 2006. Trainer Andrew Leggio told the Thoroughbred Times the other day, "She's trained forwardly for the past month; she's as fit as she can be, so we'll go from there."

I wasn't at all enthralled by Healthy Addiction's prep for the Distaff. Returning from a two month layoff and facing a mediocre field of four opponents, she staggered home in slow fractions, earning a slow fig, for her, of 91. But she's developed this year into a solid graded stakes winner, and I think she certainly has a shot if she improves off that race.

Round Pond (Awesome Again) is making her third start of the form cycle for Michael Matz. If you look at her fast track two-turn form, she's three-for-three, most recently her duel over Happy Ticket last March. She was off five months after that, and since ran second in the slop at Monmouth and her third to Fleet Indian in the one-turn Beldame. (Full Disclosure: I actually picked her in the Beldame, saying she prefers one turn.) She has good tactical speed, and worked five furlongs in a sharp 59 flat on Sunday.

With potential speed like Pool Land (Silver Deputy), Round Pond, Fleet Indian, Bushfire (Louis Quatorze), and Healthy Addiction, there should be plenty of pace to set up a late run by Balleto (Timber Country). She's coming off three consecutive seconds in Grade 1's. She actually had a chance in two of those, and my impression of those races is that she should have won. She had Spun Sugar and Fleet Indian absolutely dead to rights in the Go For Wand and Beldame; no way she should have lost either. She may get a piece of the purse here, but I wonder if she can dig down for the extra it would take to get the big prize.

Interested In: Despite all these great ideas, I'm having a hard time getting past Pine Island. She's like a little buzzsaw, and if she can work out a trip - and she'll be facing such a big field for the first time - I don't see why she won't finish well. I'll watch the board for overlays on Happy Ticket, Healthy Addiction, and Round Pond, but I'm not really getting all that excited about any of them. Are you?

Against: If and only if Fleet Indian draws poorly, I'd consider leaving her out completely.

Exotics: Balleto

BC Notes - Oct 30

- Flower Alley had what was termed a disappointing work here on Sunday morning when he struggled at the end of a six-furlong work in 1:15.

- Quick Little Miss impressed Tom Amoss on TVG with a bullet (of 35) five furlong move in 58.60 at Santa Anita. Mel Stute said afterwards that the filly was supposed to take it slow, but took off in the stretch. He added that jockey Jon Court had all he could handle pulling her up "which was a much better sign than I anticipated." He told Bloodhorse: "She's a big, stout filly and I train her pretty hard, which she loves. She's maturing at the right time and I believe she's got a heck of a chance, or we wouldn't be going." [Bloodhorse]

- Reader Mr. Ed says to take another look at Germance in the F&M Turf, pointing out that she the QEII was a shorter race than she prefers. In fact, she'd never run shorter than a mile and a quarter prior to that race; and all of her other races have been great, so thanks for pointing that out. She's by Silver Hawk, out of a mare by Caerleon, and is inbred 3x5 to Hail to Reason; 4x5 to Northern Dancer. Germance has a low dosage at 1.07 with 28 dosage points, and this is the distaff family of the Italian Derby winner White Muzzle.

- Besides not having the works from Belmont on The Works, which is a pretty significant and surprising transgression, they have a click on the CD playing the music they play over the works, and it's really annoying. I can't believe that nobody there noticed that.

- Walter points out that Satwa Queen should be OK on a firm course based on her second to Mandesha and in front of Alexandrova in the Prix de l'Opera, as the ground was firm enough on Arc Day for Mandesha to set the course record.

- OK, am I devoted to this blog, or what? I'm even bravely suffering through Suzy Kolber in order to see if ESPN is running promotion for the Breeders Cup on tonight's Monday Night Football game. I've been running the DVR since 7, and have scrolled through most if not all of the pregame, and didn't notice a spot. I was disappointed when Chris Berman and his crew mentioned Thursday's big Louisville game with particular emphasis on how it was like the biggest college game ever in the city; yet nothing on the Breeders Cup. Having their top dog talent mention the event would give it the kind of credibility and attention we'd like to see. I'll be watching throughout....who's playing tonight?....and will try to report on a live blog basis.