The Distaff

- Reader Mr. Ed wrote that he feels that Fleet Indian and Pine Island can be beaten in the Distaff, but wonders about the alternatives, writing that he can not make sense of this race after tossing those two.

I'd also like to beat the two top choices, and I don't really need a reason other than I want to. But as a handicapper, I always feel the need to build a case based on logic rather than just hope. The ones that I can't do so are the ones I'm timid about opposing.

It's hard to argue with a horse like Fleet Indian (Indian Charlie) who has won eight in a row, most by dominating margins, even if I think that the competition was marginal compared to what she'll see in the Distaff. She was taken out of her game in the Beldame, and instead of establishing a comfortable lead against mediocre fields, she had to rate behind the leaders, go four wide on the turn, and gamely hold off Balleto. It was an eye-opening performance to be sure. But she still had it relatively easy against just five opponents, sitting the trip behind three dueling leaders before overtaking them. I think that the post position will be key for Fleet Indian; a wide draw and she'll have to overcome a lot more than she ever has.

Pine Island (Arch), in my opinion, is a tougher bet against. You gotta love this filly. She fires every time - one turn, two turns, dirt, slop, or grass - and she's relentless, running with her head down as if to say "Get out of my way, I'm coming!" And come she does, never failing to finish at least within a length of the winner. She's improved her Beyer in every race, and had a nice work on Sunday, five furlongs in 1:01 1/5, galloping out three-quarters in 1:14. And she has classic Phipps breeding, out of a full sister to their 2005 Distaff winner Pleasant Home.

The rest of this field is, as Mr. Ed said, tough to figure. I think it may be the least interesting of the card. It consists of several fillies who look as if their best form may be in the past. But here's some ideas.

Happy Ticket (Anet) has had some tough races, and she may have tailed off after three consecutive gut-wrenching races in the spring. Since then, she ran second in the Clement Hirsch to Healthy Addiction (Boston Harbor); and then there was the sixth place debacle in the Spinster. However, she was caught wide on both turns against Healthy Addiction in the Hirsch, and had all that trouble at Keeneland when she was checked very sharply midstretch. She never runs a bad race, really, and perhaps has one more in her for 2006. Trainer Andrew Leggio told the Thoroughbred Times the other day, "She's trained forwardly for the past month; she's as fit as she can be, so we'll go from there."

I wasn't at all enthralled by Healthy Addiction's prep for the Distaff. Returning from a two month layoff and facing a mediocre field of four opponents, she staggered home in slow fractions, earning a slow fig, for her, of 91. But she's developed this year into a solid graded stakes winner, and I think she certainly has a shot if she improves off that race.

Round Pond (Awesome Again) is making her third start of the form cycle for Michael Matz. If you look at her fast track two-turn form, she's three-for-three, most recently her duel over Happy Ticket last March. She was off five months after that, and since ran second in the slop at Monmouth and her third to Fleet Indian in the one-turn Beldame. (Full Disclosure: I actually picked her in the Beldame, saying she prefers one turn.) She has good tactical speed, and worked five furlongs in a sharp 59 flat on Sunday.

With potential speed like Pool Land (Silver Deputy), Round Pond, Fleet Indian, Bushfire (Louis Quatorze), and Healthy Addiction, there should be plenty of pace to set up a late run by Balleto (Timber Country). She's coming off three consecutive seconds in Grade 1's. She actually had a chance in two of those, and my impression of those races is that she should have won. She had Spun Sugar and Fleet Indian absolutely dead to rights in the Go For Wand and Beldame; no way she should have lost either. She may get a piece of the purse here, but I wonder if she can dig down for the extra it would take to get the big prize.

Interested In: Despite all these great ideas, I'm having a hard time getting past Pine Island. She's like a little buzzsaw, and if she can work out a trip - and she'll be facing such a big field for the first time - I don't see why she won't finish well. I'll watch the board for overlays on Happy Ticket, Healthy Addiction, and Round Pond, but I'm not really getting all that excited about any of them. Are you?

Against: If and only if Fleet Indian draws poorly, I'd consider leaving her out completely.

Exotics: Balleto