Highland Cat Race Preview

1) Lukas entry – I’m told that one of these sons of Storm Cat will scratch. Market Force is definitely the best of the horses that have started. His race two back was an excellent second at 12-1 to Jimmy’s Pride in a field high 79 Beyer; the winner subsequently ran third to He Got Grit and Dr Pleasure in the Cowdin. He was bet down to 5-1 for the next race, got involved in a speed duel on the inside and faded to 9th in what have been a big bounce. Some have said the inside was dead that day. The winner was High Cotton, who was a ridiculously overbet 9-2 when up the track in the Breeders’ Futurity Saturday. Market Force also has the highest Tomlinson mud number in the field, a lofty 415.

1A) Electrical Storm – Goes turf to dirt in his second career start, not a big move for Lukas. He was well-bet at 9-2 in his debut.

2) Folk Festival – Trained by Kieran McLaughlin. He’s a Darley homebred by $125,000 sire Saint Ballado out of Gretel, who is by Hansel (very clever). McLaughlin doesn’t win with many first-time two year olds, though he popped Capote’s Crown at long odds last weekend, as well as three year-old Arch’s Gal Edith at even longer odds a few days before that. Based on that, he’s one to be afraid of.

3) Great Point – Nick Zito. This is the most expensive colt in the field, having sold for 450K at last year’s Keeneland sale. He’s by Point Given out of a Crafty Prospector mare. This is Point Given’s first crop and they have not been very precocious. As of Oct 3, only nine had started and one had won. He has just four workouts for Zito, a guy who doesn’t pop many of these first time out, but not quite as few as it’s sometimes made out to be. He has one in 16 tries this year. His last work was excellent, but was back on August 17; not sure what that means, watch the board. He’s quite well-bred; his dam is a half-sister to Distaff winner Spain.

4) Highland Cat – Been training for this since July, and remember he was entered in a two year-old in training sale, so he was trained for the sales breeze prior. He’s been reported to have good early speed out of the gate by more than one person, including on of his exercise riders. Bill Turner last sent out a two year old first time winner on 9/27/03 at Belmont; that goes back 14 starters. The winner, Artaxes At Work, was 9-1, and like Highland Cat he was ridden by Javier Castellano.

Highland Cat will have Lasix for his first start, and a look at Formulator shows that Turner fares noticeably better with first timers when he uses the medication. The last four times he’s done so, he shows a win in February at Aqueduct, two seconds and a fourth. Turner has said that he thinks the horse will like the slop, and he’ll have tons of it on Sunday. He’s also indicated that the race will be more of a learning experience.

5) Nothing But K’s – Richard Dutrow. Dutrow has four first time two year old winners in just six starters this year, watch the board here too. He has a nice series of five furlong works and has shown some zip in the A.M. His sire is Flame Thrower, a son of Saint Ballado, and he’s out of a Rare Performer mare. Seems like a modest pedigree but he sold for $150K as a yearling.

6) Judd – Michael Brice. He’s also shown some zip from time to time in the morning. He’s by Kissin Kris out of a Slewpy mare. Brice has had limited two year old first timers, and has one win in 12 tries.

7) Maroon – Up the track at 21-1 in debut; Castellano jumps off for my horse.

Well, I’ll have at least a few bucks on Highland Cat for sure. He’s 6-1 morning line, but doesn’t get mentioned anywhere in the Form consensus box. The trainer may say it’s a schooling race, but if he pops out of the gate like we’re told he can, perhaps he’ll splash home a winner. Market Force is the main worry, but he is a horse that finished 14 lengths back in his last. I think I’m afraid of Dutrow’s horse the most of the first-timers, depending on his tote action of course. I’m a bit fearful of Folk Festival as well, based on what McLaughlin has done with those first-timers recently; so I’ll include those in some exotics. If Great Point gets overbet, I’ll take a stand against with enthusiasm.