Stuck on the Distaff

- I’m a bit stuck on the Distaff, so you may have to check back with me closer to post time - perhaps at around 4:17 PM on Saturday. I don’t really have a strong feeling either way on favorite Ashado. She doesn’t seem like a lock, but I’m not itching to go against her either. She had a perfect trip stalking an easy pace in the Beldame, her final prep for this, and my immediate reaction was that I’d be trying to beat her. If you look just at her Beyers, then she’s just one of several fillies or mares with a shot. But then again, she’s a champion; she overcame some trouble to win the race last year; and she has won 11 out of 19 consecutive starts in graded stakes. On the basis of class, she pretty much towers over the field.

Still, there are horses here that will present value that I may not be able to resist. Happy Ticket will likely not be amongst those given that she could be the second choice based on her second in the Beldame. She closed to miss by a half-length to Ashado, but the race didn’t seem that close to me, and I had the feeling that had there been more ground, Ashado would have done what she’d needed to to hold her off. So if I try to beat the favorite, it will be with someone else.

Stellar Jayne made a remarkable turnaround midway through her three-year-old season in 2004. After a series of middling finishes against the best in her division, including Ashado, she won the G3 Dogwood at Churchill last June 4, and whether it was confidence or just a case of a filly maturing, her record since then looks like a mini-version of Ashado’s – eight starts – seven of those graded stakes - four wins, three of them in Grade 1’s, two seconds in Grade 1’s (beating Ashado in the sloppy CCA Oaks), and two close thirds, including an extremely difficult trip in last year’s Distaff. Come to think of it, she may very well be the second betting choice at post time, and I'd rank her ahead of Happy Ticket.

Sweet Symphony faltered in the Beldame after winning her first four starts, and Bill Mott said “She ran a dull race, but did she have any huge excuse? No.” [NYRA] Well, you don’t always need an excuse for a filly – sometimes they just throw in a bad one. A smart guy at Belmont that day was anticipating a bounce off her fast first-time Lasix win in the Alabama (something that Mott mentioned after the race), in which she earned a 104 Beyer that is amongst the tops of any of these. Her prior two at Belmont were wins, and I won’t let her go off at too big a price on Saturday without being on board.

The other three year olds, In the Gold, Nothing But Fun, and Yolanda B. Too seem a bit outclassed to me.

Society Selection is likely sick of chasing both Ashado and Stellar Jayne, but needs a contested pace to set up her late kick. It’s hard to say if she’ll get it, as all the speedy types, including California shipper Healthy Addiction, cutting back to one turn here, have shown that they can sit off the pace as well. She’s also a bit of an in-and-outer throughout her career and needs everything to go her way, but is a possibility at the right price, especially if the track turns up sloppy.

Island Fashion is a longshot I might have given more consideration to if her two races at Belmont weren’t so poor. If you throw out her try against the boys in the Pacific Classic, she’s been fast and game in her two close seconds and a third in her last three against her own kind.

My super-duper longshot possibility here is Pleasant Home (Seeking the Gold). This four year-old has been brought along slowly by Shug McGaughey, and comes off what could be her best race, a wide closing second on the speed-favoring Keeneland course in the G1 Spinster. Prior to that, she closed to finish 5 1/2 behind Happy Ticket in the Saratoga mud at seven furlongs in the Ballerina. She has good form in these long one-turn routes, getting handy wins at a mile at Gulfstream and Aqueduct earlier this year, the latter a dominating Grade 3 stakes win. She has two wins and a green third in three starts at Belmont. This is an improving filly with nice bloodlines – her second dam is Maplejinsky, winner of the Alabama and a half to Dayjur, who almost won the Sprint here in 1991, and her third is champion sprinter Gold Beauty. Looks like she could get a piece at a big price, especially if a pace duel does materialize.