The Turf - Shakespeare Not to Be

- I’ve decided to take a stand against Shakespeare in the mile and a half Turf, and not because of the soft turf. He’s come a long way since returning from a 16 month layoff in a N2X allowance race on July 27, and I don’t know if how much, if any, he can improve off of what had to be an extremely taxing effort in the Turf Classic, in which he had to overcome a slow pace and a four wide trip to prevail over English Channel and Ace after a long hard drive. Now against a much better field, the 3-1 at which he’s listed in the morning line is far too cheap in my opinion.

Azamour is one for one at the mile and a half distance, having taken the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes. His last was a disappointment, a fifth at 3-2 in the Irish Champion Stakes, finishing behind Ace. That was a mile and a quarter on a course labeled ‘yielding.” While the stretchout in distance may help, the soft turf most definitely won’t, and his trainer John Oxx did not sound the least bit optimisitc: "It's very deep....You can stick your heel in as far as you'd like. We're here. We're not going to pull out." [Sporting Life]

Bago seems to like the going soft, but he may not love the distance. He’s eight for 14 lifetime, but has only one win and four thirds in five races at a mile and a half. However, he’s as consistent as can be, finishing in the money in each of his 14 starts, so he merits a spot on my exotic tickets at least.

Shirocco is getting some attention, and I think he’ll be lower than his 20-1 morning line. He has only two starts this year, most recently an OK 4th in the Arc, just ¾’s of a length behind Bago. He is reported to love the soft going, and hasn’t had it in his last two, so perhaps he’ll move up here. The fact is that all three of the contenders who last raced in Europe are coming of efforts that, while I can't exactly label disappointing except perhaps for Azamour, were let's say less than great, and the backers of each are looking for a reason for improvement - distance in Azamour's case, and turf condition for the other two.

The defending champ, Better Talk Now, comes into this off of a similar pattern and perhaps in better form than he did last year, when he upset the field at 27-1 on a course called ‘yielding’ at Lone Star. He was 4th in his final prep, the Man O'War, last year, but closed with a rush to win this year's edition. He got help from his stablerabbit Shake the Bank, with whose assistance he's two for two, but still had to close against a final three furlongs of :35 4/5. He won’t be 27-1 again, but I think he would represent excellent value at his morning line price of 8-1.

English Channel is a rapidly improving and dangerous three year old. He ran his eyeballs out in his second place finish in the Turf Classic after stalking the slow pace, giving Shakespeare all he could handle. His prior was a game second to Gun Salute, the other three year-old in the field. They both face a tough task against these older rivals, especially Gun Salute, who has not faced older horses and drew the outside 13 post. English Channel, I think, is the more likely to show enough further improvement to be competitive here.

My longshot special in the Turf is Fourty Niners Son (15-1). This Neil Drysdale-trained son of Distorted Humor has made major strides in this, his four year old season, finishing in the money in each of his four graded stakes tries, most recently closing with a rush to win the Grade 1 Clement Hirsch, his first stakes win. In that race, he was midpack in a slowly run race, rallied four wide on the turn, and flew his last quarter in an eye-popping :22 4/5. That was at a mile and a quarter, the furthest he has run, so he’ll be stretching out in the Turf. He’s out of a mare by Alleged, the two time mile and a half Arc winner, and he’s inbred to Mr. Prospector 3x4 and to champion three-year-old Tom Rolfe 4x4. He has one race over a yielding course, a third place finish in the Arlington Million, in which he encountered traffic in the stretch and finished three lengths behind Powerscourt and a nose back of champion Kitten’s Joy. He won’t find those two here, and given the way he’s been coming home, he may very well find the extra distance to his liking.