Derby Horse-by-Horse - Part One

1 - Sedgefield (Smart Strike) (50-1) is a full brother to English Channel who's never run on natural dirt. And his last race on grass wasn't so hot either, perhaps reflecting the rigors of what's been a long campaign. Why he would run in this spot I can't say, but he's in based on a second and a third in the Lane's End and Tropical Park Derby respectively. Which raises the question as to why money earned in a Grade 3 turf race should have any bearing on who runs in the Kentucky Derby?

2 - Curlin (Smart Strike) (7-2) - Hey, two Smart Strikes side by side. When the past performances finally come out, in post position order, I sometimes feel like I'm really looking at them in earnest for the first time, even though I've done so 100 times prior. Curlin just bounded away from the field in the Arkansas Derby, getting the last eighth in a shade under 12 second; and man, the record 10 1/2 length margin of victory sure makes these running lines look awful good! But then, I scroll over to the right to see who he's beaten, and it ain't much, including two no-shot Derby runners in Teuflesberg and Storm In May.

I'm not using him to win based on his lack of experience and foundation, and I have no qualms about that; I can console myself with that "it's good for racing" crap if he runs off and wins the yumxacta, or whatever the fuck it's called. But I have to use him underneath. He looked like a men among boys physically when I watched the video of his last Keeneland work. Here's the link to that workout video page at Keeneland; scroll down a bit. It is quite impressive, and that clip is mostly of the gallop out!

Darrin Miller said that Sedgewick is going to leave from the rail, so, with the unspeedy Zanjero ouside of him, Curlin should be able to work out a trip drafting behind the one horse. But I'd be more amenable to backing him to win if he was 8-1.

3 - Zanjero (Cherokee Run/Runaway Groom/Blushing Groom) (30-1) is closely related to Storm in May - they have the same second dam. Well? Where else are you going to get the real trivial stuff like that? I've been attracted to him as one to use underneath based on his consistency, and a pretty good closing kick. I'm not holding the Blue Grass against him as much as I will for others, because he didn't need the race as much as some who got just two preps. But he's kinda slow, which is a drawback; I think he'll be far behind early. Thinking about it, he seems more likely to rally for 8th then to make it to the top four. Shaun Bridgmohan rides, replacing Garrett Gomez, and interestingly, he's been aboard for the colt's only two wins.

4 - Storm in May (30-1) is by Tiger Ridge, a son of Storm Cat who stands for 80,000 rands in South Africa and who may be thinking 'repatriation' if his son wins. I hear it's tough for stallions from South Africa to obtain visas these days, but I doubt he'll have the need. The story of his trainer Bill Kaplan and his tiny stable was cute for awhile, but this is now overkill, with he and stablemate Imawildandcrazyguy being entered despite neither showing to be nearly worthy in their recent efforts. They could be exhibits A and A+ for some reform of the graded earnings system.

5 - Imawildandcrazyguy (50-1)

That doesn't look like it's in, does it?

6 - Cowtown Cat (20-1) - The first of the Pletcher quintet, and one that's been picking up some support around our little universe of late. I'm not really impressed with his Illinois Derby, though you might note that his 98 Beyer is as good as the best of contenders Scat Daddy and Nobiz Like Shobiz. He slowed down steadily from a 24 second third quarter, to 25 to 12 4/5 for the last 1/8th. He's working well, and from here on in, just assume that they're all working well unless I specify otherwise. He's by Distorted Humor, the sire of Funny Cide, and a Mr. Prospector-line sire; and he's out of a Storm Cat mare. He has some interesting breeding in that he's inbred 5x5 to the foundation mare Pocahontas, the dam of Chieftain and Tom Rolfe. But I'm not using him.

7 - Street Sense (Street Cry) (4-1) - "Mr. Tafel, Mr. Tafel, you've won the Kentucky Derby!" If we see that scene on TV this year, then I've lost the Kentucky Derby. I'm standing against the Juvenile champ, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he's the post-time favorite. Talk about a two-prep schedule - this one has had like one and a third preps given the fact that he only ran about 3/8ths of a mile in the Blue Grass, sprinting home in 34 1/5 after loping along the first six furlong in a ridiculous 1:16 4/5. And what exactly is his excuse for being outkicked by Dominican. Huh? Whatsmore, he displayed some immaturity when forced to abandon his beloved inside route.

Nafzger used a weird prep schedule 17 years ago with Unbridled, which apparently gives him license to buck convention again, say things like: "And you know what else? He doesn't give a damn what you all (media) said this morning", and everyone goes oh, that Carl Nafzger; he's so....folksy! Folksy? That's what they said about George W. Bush, and look where that got us. So despite his stellar works, his huge Juvenile win on this track on the golden rail which he's never going to see this time, and the knowledge that this could be my eventual Derby UnDoing, I'm tossing him out.

8) Hard Spun (Danzig) 15-1. He's my top choice on breeding, being as he is so closely related to the Preakness/Belmont winner Little Current (whose dam is the third dam of Hard Spun). I felt pretty smart when I touted him in the Lane's End after his disappointing Southwest, and he steadily made his way up my Derby list since then, despite my queasiness over his six week layoff. Now, I'm unceremoniously throwing him out. His five furlong workout in 57 3/5 was the fastest Derby work in 28 years, and I hated it. Larry Jones said he didn't have a stopwatch, and thought he went in about a minute; that's probably because he saw him at the end when he was slowing down dramatically after covering the first eighth in 10.88. 10.88! If his rider couldn't do the right thing in a simple morning workout, how are we to expect him to do in the Derby? Toss.

9) Liquidity (Tiznow) (30-1) will probably be close to a pace that could be a bit more contentious that people think. And that could be bad news for a colt who has weakened after finding the pace too quick for his liking in his last two. This horse is eligible for an entry-level allowance race. He's worked well over the Poly at Keeneland, but note his quick works leading up to the SA Derby as well.

10) Teuflesberg (30-1) - Interestingly bred colt is by Johannesburg, out of a Devil's Bag mare; both sire and dam trace back tail-female to State, the great-great-granddam (I think I got that right) of Pulpit. He set the pace in the Blue Grass and couldn't hold on. Er...I don't think that bodes very well for his chances here. But it's interesting to note that of this first ten in the group, seven of them have run on the lead at some point or other in their careers. I don't expect to see that from Curlin, to name just one. Hard Spun, who knows, he could be out there in 21.3. But in any event, it seems to me as if this will not be the paceless affair that some have speculated about.

So I've gone through half the field, and eliminated each one from the win spot. See, that wasn't so hard, was it? I mean, just because the two likely betting favorites are in this group, who the hell wants to bet on the favorites in this race anyway? After all the months obsessing over this race, I'm going to bet a 7-2 shot in a 20 horse field? But there's gotta be a winner in this field, and we'll find him - hopefully - somewhere in Part 2 to follow.