- Hard Spun was one of the harder horses for me to figure. I was a supporter, but soured on him after his fast workout on Monday. In fact, he ran int the race a lot like he did in the workout - fast early, not so fast late. He went 22.96, 46.26, then 1:11.13. He was already slowing down each of those quarters, while pursued by a trio of longshots in Cowtown Cat, Teuflesberg, and Stormello. What happened to Liquidity I have no idea. Rounding the turn, Hard Spun slowed to a 25.91 quarter; yet not only did nobody gain, he actually widened the lead. After that, Street Sense seemed to come out of nowhere before he blew by. Hard Spun's last half had to be close to 52 seconds. He didn't show me that he can run at distances like this, and I could see opposing him in the Preakness if he's overbet. (Of course, he'll have to give the track his approval first.)
Curlin was hurt by the two post, and rallied nicely after getting shuffled back. Other than that, the only one seen gaining ground at the end was Imawildandcrazyguy, and I don't think that says too much for this group. By the way, that was Tiago flying by everyone on the gallop out, but it was far too late after he saved ground on the turn.
With so many horses, the pan shot is so wide, it's really hard to pick up individual trips, especially on the computer screen, so I'll have to check out my DVR recording tomorrow. But I just don't see any real trouble turning for home - horses like Nobiz Like Shobiz and Any Given Saturday had their shot; Circular Quay was wide and said by the chart to be briefly bumped, and never mounted a serious threat. I don't know what the hell happened to Scat Daddy, who packed it in after a mile.
This is yet another Derby win for the Mr. Prospector line. Street Cry is by Machiavellian, a son of Mr. P.
Street Sense, at $11.80 to win, is the highest paying favorite in Derby history.
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Saturday, May 05, 2007
Derby Notes
Posted by Alan Mann at 11:03 PM
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I may not have won anything this afternoon but I won some nice money tonight. And by the way it was a great fight, at least for me a boxing fan.
Alan,
Rags To Riches would have been right there at the end in the Derby.
Nafzger will probably bring Street Sense to the Spa for the Jim Dandy and the Travers. I can't see this horse running in the Haskell. Unshaded and Albert The Great had an epic duel in the 2000 Travers. Tafel may want to paint the canoe again.....Nafzger is one incredible trainer.
Of course, getting way ahead in the outlook above.
What i find interesting about the race is that Hard Spun hung on so well after setting a fast pace, yet Street Sense was able to rally from 19th to win. So was the track carrying speed, or favoring closers? The only thing the two trips had in common was that both horses were travelling along the inside. Note that two horses close to Hard Spun's early pace (Cowtown Cat and Stormello) finished last and next-to-last. Curlin also seemed to be rallying along the inside, though i honestly haven't looked into it.
PS - Great decision by Barclay Tagg to skip the Breeders Cup Juvenile with Nobiz Like Shobiz. Really helped him win the Derby, didn't it?
John Velazquez's ride aboard Circular Quay was hideous, though in fairness, it cost him at worst 3rd. Pletcher needs to revisit using him as his main go-to guy, he's a terrible big-race rider when there's more than 6 horses in the field.
The big question now is whether Rags to Riches goes in the Belmont. My guess is no, but it'd be interesting if she did.
Well, after all those months of over-analyzing, all you had to do was go with the impressive winner of the BC Juvenile returning on the same track. I didn't hit a single bet in the Derby, but my day was made when Calvin Bo-RAIL took an immediate left turn aboard SILVERINYOURPOCKET as soon as the gates opened to hit the rail in the seventh race. When I saw that this runner was 5w in each of his previous two races and was getting Borel for the first time, I was on board.
The weather was great at Churchill. While driving down on I-65 from Indianapolis, we passed a pack of Harleys about 15 miles out of Louisville. At that point, we knew the rain would hold off or those Hogs would not have been out on the road. Always trust the Harleys when it comes to the weather.
Oh, I forgot to mention the possible highlight of my day was brushing shoulders with Orenthal James Simpson with my buddy hissing "killa" as we pass by. High comedy.
Anybody else share my sneaky suspicion that someone tipped Pletcher off to last week's "surprise" EPO screening?
The same thing happened to Scat Daddy that did to Teuflesberg, Johannesburg! That sire is not going to get many 10f winners.
The rail got very live once they unsealed the track, but buddy on the next bar stool called it right away.
I believe the top three will all go to the Preakness if healthy, should make for a nice race with Chelokee and King of the Roxy adding in for fun.
Reading between the lines it looks like R&R will go in the Belmont, where a well rested Tiago could also be a factor.
There's been too much complimenting of Hard Spun's effort, but as Alan notes of the 6F time, he did slow the pace down A LOT...the 137+ mile time was even worse-- and to boot he was clear after the first quarter AND the rail was THE place to be on Derby day.
I anticipate a contested pace duel on Preakness day-- Hard Spun will be my first throwout: I may lay him(bet to lose) in the exchanges if odds are not unfavorable.
And barring injury or anyone special waiting in the wings, I look for Street Sense to repeat.
Finally, Imawildandcrazyguy's unfavorable trip merits his inclusion in the exotics.
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