RSS Feed for this Blog

Saturday, April 05, 2008

Desperate

- One more point about War Pass - Zito said that he instructed Velasquez to drift off the rail "because the rail was dead all day. It was a tiring track. I wanted him to change leads so it would be easier for him." I guess that "tiring track" will be their mantra; we'll see how tiring the Beyer folks think the tracks was when we see the fig. No matter what it is, I can't believe that they would still send him to the Derby, but I guess that point of view makes too much sense.

- Looking for any way to get even now....not that I really bet all that much given the various distractions, all of the good kind. The 11th at Aqueduct is not appealing. Keeneland is done. Daytona is even money at Santa Anita.

I saw that Zenyatta won at Oaklawn...and that Ginger Punch ran third. And I guess that was the desired bounce for Denis of Cork. Fortunately, I completely missed that race. As you might be able to tell, it was impossible to keep up with everything, especially up here, where there was just one set showing the NBC races.

I guess I've just about had it here; it's 6:15, and I've been here since 12:30. A long time for the Big A, even in the comfortable surroundings of the pressbox. Some of the writers here are now actually working, writing articles that they'll get paid for. For me, the "work" has been done. So I'm going to get out of here, and I'll speak to you later. Hope you had a better betting day than I did!

9 Comments:

Anonymous said...

I didn't lose any money today.
I got gas and food and nothing was left to bet.

Just wait till the real economy killers make an appreciable appearance!

People are scared, broke, without credit, without jobs, without confidence, without saving, without reasonable prices and without health insurance.

Horses and betting are a No-No Now.

Good luck folks!!

jeff said...

Nicely done at the Big A, today Alan. It was interesting following your observations as the day unfolded.

The only horse I saw today that I would consider for the Derby is Colonel John. I loved Nakatani's comments after the race about how he focused on keeping the horse patient, with the big race in four weeks specifically in mind.

We'll see what happens in the Blue Grass, but Pyro and Colonel John look to be two possible beneficiaries from a potential BB/WP front-end battle at Churchill.

Anonymous said...

anon.

Stop pouting,and get the box of Twinkies off your chest.

If you want a Job,you first have to get off the couch,take a shower and shave.there are plenty of jobs out there.

Michael said...

Great job today Alan.

Anonymous said...

They came up with a test for sublimase - they will come up for a test for whatever Levine is using (if the R&WB isn't afraid to discredit the game)
how does someone train 85 horses anyway

Anonymous said...

Put War Pass away for awhile. He was on his right lead from the 3/8th pole. He will be lucky to pick up a check at Churchill Downs.

onecalicocat said...

Zenyatta made the most impressive move of the day.
She made up about six lengths in the twinkling of an eye.

Steve D said...

Alan,
I was playing the Arlington Park Handicapping Contest all day, so I didn't get to read your updates as they came. Great work, however.

I'd like to talk about the nature of the Aqueduct main track. I think it is very clear what happened: The rail and the front was absolutely dead the early part of the day until the Bay Shore, when track officials "paved the highway" and you saw J be K win.

I mean, look at the results of races 1 thru 6! Closers on th outside all day, and horses who were first and second early routinely finished at the bottom.

http://equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/AQU040508USA.pdf

Then, the highway starts getting paved for War Pass. Temporary Saint more than proves the point. War Pass nearly gets it done. And finally, Bustin Stones and Executive Fleet battle 1-2 the whole way and none of the relatively good closers can make up any ground.

It is very clear to me today that there was a profound change in track bias before race six. Aqueduct went from favoring closers to front runners.

To me, this makes Court Vision's performance (and, on some level, Tale of Ekati's) fairly impressive. This fig will come back embarrassingly low...but I think I'm wedded to Court Vision as the least of the evil's for the Kentucky Derby. He will certainly improve off this effort (provided a fair track and a fast pace in Kentucky), and has the seasoning and the breeding to get the job done, especially in a year that no one has stood out (Big Brown's lack of experience keeping him from being classified as a standout).

Anonymous said...

Colonel John was the most impressing horse yesterday, by a mile.

Closed very very fast - and against a fast pace too. Had to be under :12 for that last 1/8, and this after they got the mile in 1:35+.

He won't be missing from my exotics on derby day. Synthetics is the only worry. Watching him try to run down BB will be something to see. Should be a quick derby.

ajkreider