Late Double

- Yesterday, I mentioned Dancing Forever, who won the closing day stakes at Keeneland for Shug. Criminologist, the 9-5 ML favorite in the G3 Beaugay at Aqueduct later today, is a very similar case, also having worked her way slowly up the allowance ranks and steadily developing into a legitimate stakes horse late in her four-year old season last year. Criminologist has been a bit ahead of her stablemate, having won two graded stakes in emphatic fashion in the fall.

After a few months off, the daughter of Maria's Mon ralled for second in one of those Keeneland stakes races masqerading as an allowance. One can certainly argue that the mere presence of winner Sharp Susan, though no world beater, still made that a more formidable test than this race today. Criminologist got caught behind a slow early pace, and his final quarter rally in 22.56 seconds wasn't quite enough.

Short field today, but she has does have some tactical speed, and will likely track behind All Is Vanity, stepping up to stakes company for Clement. All in Vanity defeated Shug's Carriage Trail in her North American debut, and that one won the Doubledogdare at Keeneland last weekend. But I think that Shug will turn the tables today.

Let's go for a cold late double: Stormy Catch (3-1) has the look of a potential perennial bridesmaid, having run second her last three races, all on the grass. But I'm willing to give her another shot. In her turf debut last August at the Spa, she ran into eventual Comely winner Sherine, who ran third against the boys in her subsequent start. Her next race, also at Saratoga, produced three subsequent winners and the stakes placed Mine Or Who's. Then it was almost eight months until her last race. She had no real excuse with an inside trip, but ran into a filly who seemed to freak on the grass for Tom Bush. Last shot today.

- - Bloodhorse.com reports this morning that Smooth Air has a slight fever, and missed his scheduled gallop. He's being treated with antibiotics, and trainer Bennie Stutts said that the horse won't run in the Derby if he can't get him back on the track by Monday.

Pletcher said that he'll decide about Behindatthebar after watching [him] train over the next few days.

And Larry Jones said that owner Bereton Jones appears “95 percent” committed to running Proud Spell in the Kentucky Oaks.

There's three horses squarely on the Derby bubble....and it sounds as if one of them has already slipped off. Looking good for Bob Black Jack at least. I'm sure Dutrow isn't the least bit concerned about the speedy West Coast-er; but I don't think he'd be worried even if Shecky Greene was in the race! Still, I want to see him in it, and I trust a lot of other horseplayers do too.