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Thursday, April 03, 2008

Keeneland Time

- It's supposed to rain in Lexington on Friday night, part of the same giant weather system that's supposed to come here. Of course, unlike at Aqueduct, there's no threat of the Keeneland track becoming sloppy. The turf racing could be affected; but not that much, as most of the horses will probably remain in the field if the races are transferred to the Polytrack, and likely put forth efforts similar to what they would have on the turf.

Keeneland will introduce the Super High Five, a $1 minimum bet in which you have to pick the first five finishers in order. It's like a Superduperfecta. The pool carries over if it's not hit. I can say with a fair amount of confidence that I'll never have the occasion to bet the Super High Five, but any wager with the potential to produce headline producing payoffs is a good thing I suppose. They also have 50 cent trifectas and Pick Fours, and hear hear to that.

Keeneland is also a chance for TVG to come out of their long winter hibernation during which they are shut out of all of the attractive winter meetings. TVG will have a major presence throughout the meet, with much of the network's specialty programs based at the track. [DRF]

Prussian is scheduled to make his three-year debut in the Transylvania Stakes, which is supposed to go on the grass at a mile and a sixteenth for three-year olds. It would be his first start since he faded to tenth in the bog of the Breeders' Cup Juvie Turf as the 7-2 second choice. While his owner Gary Knapp was concerned about him running on another soft course if the expected rains come, he said that he'd "have no concerns about running" on the Poly.

I'm taking a look at Boss Lafitte, 8-1 morning line for Tom Amoss, who's rolling along at 30% this year. Through the races of April 2, the barn had seven wins and five seconds with its last 15 starters, wow. Boss Lafitte improved late last year with two turn wins on the grass and in the slop, both with Robby Albarado. He returned off a two month freshening with a late closing 4th in a Fair Grounds stakes. Now he's reunited with Albarado, who's two-for-two on the colt and has been aboard for both of his wins. Boss Lafitte is a son of Dynaformer, out of a stakes winning Lord At War mare who's a half to several horses who won or placed in grass stakes, including Watch, War Thief, Remind, Prime Meridian, and Clock. He sports a Tomlinson of 380. Good post and seemingly a lot of upside here. This horse always gets bet, so I don't know if you'll see 8-1, but he should present some value in a tough race in which I'm not afraid to oppose Prussian, especially if the race comes off the grass onto the Poly, a surface which may not suit his front-running style.

I say 'may not' because we've seen that synthetic surfaces have changed as time goes on; so perhaps it's worth watching for awhile to see if the surface will favor closers as it has over three Polymeets going back to October of 2006.

OK, I'd love to do more of these Keeneland races, but time to check out Saturday's races at the Big A and beyond.

2 Comments:

Anonymous said...

Thanks for Boss Laffite!!!

alan said...

Woo-hoo, not bad, eh?? :-)