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Monday, April 26, 2010

Devil May What??

This post is in reaction to comments in the prior thread suggesting that Pletcher's filly, Devil May Care could be third or 4th choice and go off in the 6-1/8-1 well as to the suggestion made twice by Joe Drape in the last couple of days that this daughter of Malibu Moon could be the Toddster's best Derby hope.

With all due respect, I'm not getting that at all. This filly did rebound nicely from two up-the-track efforts in her first two races around two turns in winning the Bonnie Miss. However, that was a near perfect-trip, sitting 4th in the pocket after a smooth start from a good post behind a contested pace against just five other fillies. Her final furlong was run in a mediocre 13 2/5 while being fully ridden out to the wire (and including a brief duck-in after shying from the whip). Yes, she earned a Beyer of 100...on a day which included the Florida Derby, run at the same distance, whose Beyers are a bit suspiciously high in my opinion. I mean, do you really think that Ice Box is one of the very fastest horses in the Derby field?

To be quite frank, not only do I think she would be ridiculously undervalued at 8-1, I don't really believe she belongs in this field. Not that this Derby is anything to write home about, don't get me ranks as one of the most uninspiring in my experience. But do you really think this is a filly who has nothing else to prove against her own kind and is just crying out to run against the boys? Personally, I'd take either of two of Pletcher's other entries, Super Saver and Mission Impazible, in a head-to-head proposition against her any day.


El Angelo said...

I don't disagree on her chances, I just see her getting a lot of play.

alan said...

I know and I hope you're right. And that people like Drape keep hyping her chances.

Anonymous said...

There is nothing left to hype for the once a year media, she will be bet down to third choice.

jk said...

Rule is out.

DiscreetPicks said...

It's amazing we're just a couple of years removed Eight Belles breaking down, and people clamoring that it was because she was a filly and had no business ina race like the Derby. I guess we can thank Rachel and Zenyatta for that quick turnaround in public perception. The thing is though, Devil May Care is nowhere near the level of those other fillies. If she runs as well as Eight Belles did, i'd be shocked. Like Alan said, when your only two-turn win came vs. in a 5-horse field (in which you were a longshot, no less), that doesn't bode well for your Derby chances.