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Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Derby Notes

We had a lively discussion earlier in the month about Sidney's Candy and whether or not he could rate a bit behind the leaders and avoid what appears to be a potentially destructive pace. So it was interesting to watch the video of his workout of a few days ago (can't seem to post it here). In an obviously purposeful drill, Joe Talamo had Sidney's Candy looking pretty comfortable sitting about a length and a half behind stablemate Via Verde down the backstretch before gliding effortlessly up outside of him on the turn. Talamo encouraged him once he changed leads midstretch and got six furlongs in 11.60. At least according to the Kentucky Derby site.

Mike Welsch caught him in 11.44, but noted a somewhat soft final furlong of 13.28 and relatively non-existent gallop out.....while the Derby site says that his final furlong was in a somewhat livelier 12.80. Goes to show you that observations on workouts can differ both subjectively and substantively. But trainer John Sadler and Talamo were pleased, and this is an obviously talented horse who seems worth a look should the tote board reflect the fact that it's his first race on dirt (which I'm not at all sure will be the case).

- Awesome Act worked a half in 48.44.

This was definitely a much more polished and encouraging performance from Awesome Act, especially the way he galloped out willingly. That was something he failed to do prior to the Wood, according to colleague David Grening, and he galloped out only marginally at the tail end of a mediocre six-furlong drill here one week ago. [DRF]
I think that his Gotham was one of the more visually impressive preps, especially considering it was his first dirt race, and despite the face that he didn't beat anyone. If you can overlook his Wood, whether due to his lost shoe or the lethargic pace which prompted Leparoux to have him under a stranglehold, then one can certainly make a case for him.

- And ah yes, what would Derby week be without a front page story in the Times by Joe Drape, this time about the dire state of the breeding industry in Kentucky. Thanks again for the gloom and doom at the sport's finest hour, Joe.


DiscreetPicks said...

I stopped in at the Wynn last night, and here's what they were offering:

Lookin at Lucky 3/1

Sidney's Candy 5/1

Dublin 10/1

Noble's Promise 10/1

Ice Box 11/1

Super Saver 12/1

Awesome Act 12/1

Endorsement 15/1

Mission Impazible 18/1

Conveyance 18/1

Jackson Bend 20/1

Devil May Care 20/1

Discreetly MIne 24/1

Homeboykris 25/1

Line of David 28/1

Paddy O'Prado 28/1

Stately Victor 40/1

Dean's Kitten 45/1

Interactif 50/1

Backtalk 60/1

Anonymous said...

Interesting that if you use the old Derby rule (start at 2, three preps at 3, no more than 4 week layoff, and 100 Beyer) you are left with one horse - Sidney's Candy. I know this rule is outdated but maybe Street Sense, Barbaro, and Big Brown were just special and MTB was a fluke. If you can come around to that, maybe the old school rule can help weed out some of the crap in here. Sid Candy would not be a single but use him with LAL and maybe you can start to get a ticket togeher.

Anonymous said...

Shit I left out Jackson Bend on the old rule list. So much for manageble tickets. I have to toss him.

Anonymous said...

Shouldn't the old rule include only races on true dirt?

The whole point of that rule was to help uncover A)bad favorites and B) live long shots.

Therefore you should be including Jackson Bend, not excluding, correct?

Anonymous said...

Blind Luck is the filly that should be in this race, I would play her if she were.

The connections of Pletcher's filly may see the Derby as an easier spot.

El Angelo said...

Endorsement's out. That's 2 of the top 4 betting choices out before they even draw the race.

MikeE said...

No Endorsement? No fun! Penn National indeed..

Anonymous said...

Setsuko getting close.

Anonymous said...

What became a wide open Derby with the defection of Eskenderaya just became a total crap shoot with Lucky drawing the 1 hole and Sidneys Candy drawing the 20 hole. I was trying to make a case for Sidneys Candy before the draw but now it's almost impossible, Sidneys Candy is no big brown. And good luck to those supporting Looking at Lucky at 4-1 as they watch gomez try and weave around 19 horses now. Good Luck everybody !!! We're gonna need it..

Anonymous said...

It is certainly a crapshoot, but if you can find the right key horse it will pay nicely. I think there are a number of tosses. It's difficult, but not Mission Impazible (get it?). -JP

Anonymous said...

I'm pretty mad about them yanking Rule--does anyone know why they did?

I had a dream the night before last that I was supporting Super Saver--in my dream I had on a green Super Saver Hat and Shirt, and was going to the track to bet on him (a lot of other stuff happened in the dream and I never made it to bet on him because I kept getting way-laid...)

Anyway, I've never dreamt about betting on a horse before, and I've don't and never have owned a hat and/or a shirt of a horse before, and I don't even like Super Saver--as a rule I never support horses with names that make me think of Kmart every time I hear them (if he wins we'll be stuck for years of horses with names like Blue Light Special, Save Right, Manager's Special, Save a Buck, What a Deal, and Best Buy...).

But I can't get the dream out of my head, and with Rule gone, I think a lot of the so-called speed horses are going to be held back, so maybe a speed horse will sneak one out and wire this year? Super Saver has the right jockey and an ok post....BTW I checked--Winstar sells Super Saver shirts and caps...and they're green...

MNslappy said...

I had a dream the night before last year's Derby in which I was walking past a television set in the dream and the sports anchor, who was talking about the Derby results, said "....the son of Birdstone..."

No lie.

Of course, I bet the WRONG Birdstone the next day, or the story would've been way way cooler! Doh.

steve in nc said...

Re. Dreams, a true story:

Decades ago, I worked at a deli counter near Columbia U where a couple of numbers runners used to hang out. As a horseplayer, I scoffed, but my co-worker always played and occasionally won.

One night, I dreamed I played a particular number and it won. So of course the next morning, I had to play that number. But my co-worker interrupted the transaction, begging me to wait until he looked up something in his dream/numbers book with a fortune teller on the cover. He told me that according to his book, when you dream about numbers, you have to play this other number.

I still played the number I dreamed for $1, but to make my coworker happy, played the number in the fortune teller's book for a dime. Damned if the fortune teller wasn't right.

So anon with the Super Saver dream, go find one of those dream books and see what numbers are associated with dreaming about racehorses. And box those numbers instead of keying Super Saver.