I guess that some might take the two upsets in Saturday's Derby preps as a sign that the crop is weak, and use them to bolster the case that Eskendereya is a likely winner as the solid favorite on May 1. But I'm going to use them to highlight the random nature of horse race results, especially in this era when we know far less about the Derby horses than in the past given the infrequency of their appearances, and the variety of racing surfaces which make interpretation of the results difficult, if not impossible. If anything, I'm more confident than before that the 20 horse field, the mile and a quarter distance, the commotion and distractions of an overflow crowd, and a Churchill main track which most of the horses have never raced over will all combine to produce a result which will make a value stab pay off for those lucky enough to stumble upon the winner. In my opinion, those factors alone almost always make the Kentucky Derby a race in which to take a contrarian view - and I say that with confidence despite the fact that four out of the last ten runnings have been won by the favorite. The prior 20 all failed; if anything, the long-term percentages point to Eskendereya doing so as well.
Blue Grass winner Stately Victor ($82.20), running on the Keeneland Poly for the first time since a hopelessly wide 6th in the Ky Breeders Futurity last year, couldn't get even close in four entry-level allowance races on dirt and grass since; and he earned a Beyer of 94 which is worthy of that level. You'd think that maybe his connections would spare us and allow a more qualified runner to run for the roses...but what do you think? This colt joins the parade of recent inconsequential winners of this race - General Quarters, Monba, Dominican, Sinister Minister....and when do you think it loses its Grade 1 status?
Stately Victor is not only the first Grade 1 winner for the second year stallion Ghostzapper....but it's his first graded winner period, and only his second stakes winner of any kind. Can you believe that this horse originally stood for a fee of $200,000? He presently fetches $30,000 standing for Frank Stronach at Adena. Stately Victor is out of the Grade 1 winner Collect The Cash (Dynaformer).
Arkansas Derby winner Line of David ($36.60) was also coming out of an entry-level allowance, but at least one could make a logical argument for him given his improvement for trainer John Sadler since blinkers were added; he's now unbeaten in three tries since that equipment change. This son of Lion Heart set some honest early fractions (22.65, 23.61), and no one could take advantage of his subsequent rapid deceleration (24.49, 25.77) enough to overtake him as he dug in for the final furlong, run in 12.85 seconds. I see him as yet another addition to what should be a contested pace in the Derby, but certainly no more than that.
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Sunday, April 11, 2010
Sunday Morning Notes
Posted by Alan Mann at 12:10 PM
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19 Comments:
Good point, The Blue Grass is a worthy candidate for a downgrade, but of course we know it will never happen.
This is really a five or six horse Derby, never in my life could I throw out this many horses three weeks from the event.
Can't wait.
I feel like we said this last year too, then Mine That Bird won.
Couldn't have said it any better myself!
It's hard to imagine that the Blue Grass was a GII when Holy Bull, Skip Away, Pulpit, etc. were winning it, and now there are such crap horses becoming GI winners...
What does Sadler do with his two frontrunners in the Derby?
El Angelo, yeah, this time last year I thought I Want Revenge was a mortal lock, then he scratched, and some other contender too that my faulty memory can not recall, and it became wide open.
Could happen again, but right now believe Esk and LAL are proven legit, and Candy too except for the almighty surface issue.
Almost everyone else had been beaten handily by one of these three except of course the Sunland grads who will probably develop into the Wiseguy horses as we get closer.
The Bluegrass obviously has been hurt by the plastic-turf factor as well as its decision to keep the prep only 3 weeks from the Ky Derby. That said, it wasn't a terrible field on paper this year. Can't believe that stupid 40-1 shot had to come out of nowehre and mess up a nice score with Paddy O P. -JP from S.D.
This will be the only time I agree with JP and Angelo both in the same posting.
Dirty
These preps did add a couple more horses to the "all others" field, including Line of David, Stately Victor, and Paddy O Prado. Also, Nobles Promise was jostled badly and might miss the derby now as well. As of now it's shaping up to be 10-12 Field runners depending on the Lexington and any late scratches/injuries.
Noble's Promise had a pretty horrendous trip in the Ark Derby, and might've offered good value in the Derby. Now it appears he may have been compromised even more than meets the eye. Pretty unlucky for him if he winds up missing the race. Just another example though of all the weird shit that can happen to a horse on the Derby Trail, and why the future odds you see being tossed around on some of these horses (months) before the race are beyond ridiculous.
I assume you're joking about the derby being a 10-12 horse field. Those days are over. As for Noble's Promise, you have got to be kidding me. The horse had no chance in heck in the Derby. If only they sent him he'd be an easy toss. -JP from you know where.
I see Contessa plans to run if he wins the Derby Trial and has enough earnings, this has become more about the owners walking his horse over than it is about winning the race.
Always been that way to some extent but it is ridiculous at this point.
A horse like Setsuko will be excluded so five or six owners can brag they they had a "Derby" horse. No you didn't, you ran a horse in the Derby that did not belong, big difference.
I give a ton of credit to the owners of D' Funnybone for doing the right thing by their horse, they will be rewarded in the long run.
Kudos to Sheikh M. too for not sending Mendip, who is more worthy than most of these. They realize he is a turf horse and will campaign him in Europe.
The perfect example of A) my earlier point that it is more important to be in the race than to win it and B) why trainers want more than three weeks;
Ken McPeek, trainer of Noble's Promise, said he was "not sure" if Noble's Promise would run.
"He came out of it with several cuts and scrapes [that] happened at the start," said McPeek, who added that Noble's Promise had a "slight lung infection."
McPeek said there would be "no decision until he gets these issues resolved."
WHAT EXACTLY IS THERE TO CONSIDER??? LET YOUR HORSE RECOVER AND RUN IN THE PREAKNESS, THAT IS THE RIGHT THING TO DO. Any other race entering would not even be on the radar.
Regarding Noble's Promise, i think McPeek is just saying that they'd like to run if the horse is healthy and ready-to-go, but there's just no way of knowing that right now. Who knows what's going on with the lung infection, or how serious it is, but i guess it could potentially clear up pretty soon. I'm no vet, and i have no idea what (if any) kind of effect that might have 3 weeks from now. The "cuts and scrapes" seem minor enough, but who knowsm i'm not around the horse. Neither is anyone else on this blog, i'm guessing.
Health aside, why is it that Noble's Promise would have no chance in the Derby? One bad race (if you can call it that), and he's suddenly ineligible to win?
Noble's Promise would seem to have pedigree issues being a son of Cuvee out of a Clever Trick mare. Despite that though, I would have considered him too. And having said that, I do agree with the prior Anonymous commenter that McPeek probably would not even be considering the race if it wasn't the Derby.
KEE made a hasty, ill-considered decision when they installed the junk. Sooner or later they will have to remove it - or become irrelevent.
I find wagering on Poly to be quite difficult, but the racing at Keeneland is much improved compared to the days when horses like Sinister Minister rode to conveyer belt to 15 length wins. -JP
DP, perhaps I could have phrased my intro to the Noble's Promise comment better, unlike most of the others he has earned his way into the race, I do not like him, but he deserves a spot.
But coming back in three weeks off a rough trip in which he sustained injuries and a lung infection, no matter how minor, does not appear to be in the best interest of the horse.
I am far from a major owner in the sport but have run enough horses to know that trainers usually back off a horse for a few weeks after such an experience. Never has a trainer approached me to enter a horse right back, and step him up in class, off some "minor scrapes" or a lung infection, much less both.
This is about the owner, and maybe the trainer, wanting to run in the Derby so no matter how talented NP is a complete throwout in my book. In fact I hope he runs.
I acknowledge he deserves to be there off his record, despite not having won a race this year, but the horse would be better served taking a few weeks off and firing fresh in The Preakness.
Noticed Setsuko nominated to The Withers, could Mandella have the fever too?
Probably not, maybe using as a prep for The Belmont if he does not get in the The Derby
The Belmont seems tailor-made for Setsuko. Can't imagine that Mandella would be considering a one-turn mile like the Withers though (btw, Trappe Shot is pointing for that one in a likely attempt to emulate Bernardini). If he misses the Derby, as it appears he will, i would think that the Peter Pan would be a far better spot for him.
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