RSS Feed for this Blog

Friday, February 16, 2007

Friday Night Notes - Feb 16

- I was actually mistaken earlier when I wrote that Any Given Saturday was a closer dependent on a favorable pace scenario, forgetting how close to the front he was in the Kentucky Jockey Club, his last start before Saturday's Sam F. Davis. That was a tough effort against a tough colt in Tiz Wonderful. Any Given Saturday is a $1.1 million son of Distorted Humor, out of an AP Indy mare, and a half-brother to Bohemian Lady, a stakes winner at nine furlongs. His dam is a half to the graded winner Second of June.

He certainly looks every bit the 4-5 morning line favorite that he is. Funny to see Bill Mott ship Monster Drive for Zayat Stables. He's a NY-bred who graduated in December against state-breds at the Big A in his second start, both at six furlongs. This seems like a tall task, and I'd want odds higher than his 5-1 morning line.

If you're looking for a nice priced horse to use with the favorite in exotics (or to upset him altogether), you might want to check out Singapore Swing. This Marylou Whitney-bred is listed at 15-1, partly because he lost by ten lengths late last year in running second to Brisco N Logan (6-1). But that was a different situation; it was a good-sealed track at Calder, and his 400 Tomlinson number indicates that he could like it wet.

Since then, Singapore Swing won over the Tampa track, proving that he can handle a surface that some horses don't. He was three wide around the first turn, grabbed the lead handily in the two path on the final turn, and drew away while mostly hand ridden, as Vernon Bush spent much of the last quarter mile looking behind. He won by six over a hot Tom Albertrani first-timer, with an 80 Beyer which certainly puts him in the hunt for second at least. Singapore Swing is by Fusaichi Pegasus out of a Dixieland Band mare; his second dam is the 1985 Oaks winner Sun and Snow.

- Quick note about the two Santa Anita races I picked the other day. It was wishful thinking that I would feel well enough to make it to the teletheater, and I didn't. The fifth race turned out to be a disaster, with three horses not finishing; one of those was vanned off, and another was Shame on Charlie, Baffert's 3-1 favorite, ugh. I'd written that Quick Vic was a value play at his 10-1 morning line, but not so at 4-1; he finished 5th.

And in the 7th, La Tormenta was dull on the board off a layoff, but she ran the speed off their feet and bottomed out the field. Second place finisher, and my selection, Squeeze Me Tight was, I thought, a great price at 4-1, as Frankel's shipper Keladora got bet down to 3-1 favoritism. I'd bet her again every time in the same situation (preferably with La Tormenta on top in the exacta).