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Friday, May 02, 2008

Still the Same

- The Racing Form's Kentucky Derby section has stayed reliably the same throughout the years. A few feature and handicapping columns followed by individual breakdowns of each of the horses by strengths, weaknesses, strategy, value, and pedigree profile. At this point, it's really about all I need for the duration. I think the past performances are ingrained in my brain at this point. I can just about recite the last three Beyers for each of my contenders by heart.

The Form still publishes the Dosage Index of each of the horses, and even the rarely discussed Center of Distribution. At one time, the Form was like dosage central, with Leon Rasmussen providing detailed dosage analyzes and touting its theory that a horse needed a dosage index under 4.0 in order to be able to get the distance. That changed when Steve Crist, a prominent dosage skeptic whose Racing Times studiously avoided the subject, came aboard. Now, we still get the numbers; but the Dosage: Explaining the System sidebar, instead of extolling its virtues, tells us why it's full of shit.

I myself didn't get off the 4.0 or under kool-aid until I bet Real Quiet in 1998. I certainly still use it, as a guideline, especially in situations in which I don't know enough about the pedigree to make my own judgment. And I must admit that I pay a little extra scrutiny to Derby horses with high numbers still. There's a good explanation of the system here in the Thoroughbred Times.

- If the Form's handicapping selections are any indication, you're going to get a good price if you like anyone other than Big Brown, Colonel John or Pyro. There's no clear cut wise guy horse as far as I can see; perhaps Z Fortune, who shows up for minor shares in a lot of the more prominent names' picks. A reader wrote to point out that I mixed up his morning line with that of Z Humor, and that therefore my 37-1 odds in the futures pool is quite likely to be excellent value. A minor triumph there!

Court Vision is 4th in the consensus totals, and Denis of Cork gets some mention. In fact, clocker Mike Welsch has him on top (and here's his final clocker summary, including his impressions of Big Brown's breeze yesterday). Eight Belles is not in the top four of any of the 19 selections printed here, except for the 4th slot on Mary Rampellini's. Unless she gets the feminist money, or if reader 30for60 is really George Soros, Eight Belles is going to be a very big price, and I was really, really wrong about that.

1 Comment:

El Angelo said...

I don't know Alan, Hillary Clinton picked Eight Belles. That's gotta hold some sway.