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Sunday, April 08, 2007

More Comments on Comments

- OK, a couple more comments on comments, and then I gotta get back to handicapping Keeneland's Wednesday card. If I disappear for long stretches over the next couple of weeks, you'll know why. (And I know...I didn't do so good on Saturday.)

Walter said...

I think you're underestimating Tiago. Although he was a huge longshot yesterday, his win didn't come as a complete shock. His fantastic effort in the DQ maiden win was pretty well-publicized, and the colt has been highly-regarded all along. He just threw in a clunker in the Bob Lewis, for whatever reason.
I was really making fun of Giacomo, not Tiago. I probably don't think he's quite as good as you think he is, but I think we both agree that he'd have to have some extreme luck and a slow final quarter if he's going to win at Churchill.
jeff said...

alan-
have any of the major players put up a beyer number of at least 105 yet? to date, no one seems to have made a major statement number-wise, and i'm not sure if any of yesterday's victors did anything to change that.
Looking at Watchmaker's Derby Watch (pdf), it appears as if the highest Beyers earned in a route this year are the 102's earned by Street Sense, Any Given Saturday, and Circular Quay. (Street Sense earned his 108 in last year's Juvenile). And I agree about none of this past weekend's races coming in faster than that. 102 seems like a pretty low number for this time of the year, doesn't it? This may be a competitive group of three-year olds...but maybe that's because none of them are really great, at least at this point. Perhaps we'll see Street Sense, Great Hunter, or both step up in the Blue Grass; if either produces a blowout with a big fig, he could very well be the Derby favorite. (Though others might dismiss a big number earned on Polytrack.)

5 Comments:

Superfecta said...

Speaking of Beyers, I came across something on one of the OTB feeds yesterday that mentioned that Scat Daddy had never run a triple-digit Beyer and he was something like the first potential Derby favorite in x number of years in that position. Does that sound right? I haven't had a chance to look it up to verify that yet, but given your comment about the 102 being high, I do wonder.

alan said...

>>I came across something on one of the OTB feeds yesterday that mentioned that Scat Daddy had never run a triple-digit Beyer and he was something like the first potential Derby favorite in x number of years in that position.

Yes, I think that most definitely sounds right! I don't think Scat Daddy will be the favorite, but he'll likely be in the top three I imagine. He may be bet lower than Any Given Saturday, y'think?

Kevin said...

What a terrible weekend for me with my picks. Luckily, the value was not there for me to make any strong bets in the Derby preps.

I kind of liked TIAGO in the SA Derby, but couldn't find a way to make a winning ticket (I had him on top in a tri, but never thought KotR would hang second).

AJ said...

The Beyer's are a bit lower this year. Could be a couple of explanations for this.

a) This crop just isn't that good.
b) A couple of top horses are running fewer preps - so not a great sample.
c) The track surfaces are different than in year's past.
d) This year's crop is bred with distance more in mind than speed. Milers put up great numbers in derby preps.

AJ said...

Some of the weekend Beyers are up, and I have to say I'm shocked to see Cowtown Cat and Nobiz with the same number (98), given the significant difference in times.