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Tuesday, April 17, 2007

Notes - April 17

- Haskin writes:

I will play a straight trifecta of Nobiz Like Shobiz, Hard Spun (trained by Larry Jones), and Curlin, just so I can say I have a trifecta of No, Larry, and Curlin.
Nyuk, nyuk, nyuk. (Amongst the 50 other tickets he'll play.) But seriously folks, he also provides a possible explanation for Street Sense's gazing around at the crowd on Saturday, explaining that Keeneland’s grandstand is built at an angle and is directly in sight of the horses on the far outside as they turn into the stretch.
The 2-year-old champ has had his little quirks before, such as pulling himself up after getting the lead too soon, and you can clearly see him cocking his head and looking at the crowd as soon as he turned for home, which resulted in his ducking in several times. He won’t have those problems in the Derby, where he will be forced to focus all his attention on the race. [Bloodhorse]
Well, that's a pretty definitive statement about something about which he, and we can only guess!

I must say that I'm pretty happy about the announcement that Garrett Gomez will ride Any Given Saturday, who, yes, I'm still sticking with as of now. His 14-1 final price in the futures pool indicates that the value may be there. I did not at all like the rides that he got from John Velazquez in his last two races, especially in the Wood, while still believing that his three prep races will set him up better than some of the main contenders who are coming in off long rest, two preps, or three career races. Johnny V. will ride Circular Quay, Edgar Prado keeps the mount on Scat Daddy, Ramon Dominguez on Sam P., and Fernando Jara on Cowtown Cat.

- I much prefer Keeneland's in-house telecasts to what we're seeing on TVG. Keeneland utiltizes Trakus to provide an accurate and complete saddlecloth listing of all the horses - not just the top three or four - and where they stand in real time. That alone makes the technology worthwhile as far as I'm concerned. But TVG instead devotes a good quarter of the bottom of the screen - at least, I'd say - to the annoying chiclets showing the exact location of each horse. I think I'm in the minority on this, as many people I've heard from seem to like that, but I find it distracting and very unnecessary.

- A commenter asked a very pertinent question about the stat regarding no horse that hasn't started at two not having won the Derby since sometime in the 19th century. Exactly how many horses have tried it, and what were their credentials. Statistics presented with no such context can be totally worthless. I do recall posting a couple of years ago about an article that did contain some more specific facts and figures on that and other "rules" that I'm still trying to locate. But if anyone has any information on that, we'd certainly like to know. By itself, the statement: Not since Apollo in 1882 has a horse won the Derby without making a start at 2 means almost nothing.

- And they're off and.......slotting?......at Pompano Park, hereby renamed and reborn as The Isle Casino & Racing at Pompano Park. It's the third of the Broward County parimutuels to open its racino doors, and it received the usual warm welcome.
Almost 1,400 people poured through the casino's front doors within an hour of its opening, said Jill Haynes, an Isle of Capri spokesperson. One of the casino's two functioning restaurants, a New York-style deli, had an hour wait by early afternoon. The casino's second floor will be unveiled next month, bringing the restaurant choices to four - the deli, a buffet, a steakhouse and an Italian restaurant.
......
"I hit a big (jackpot) right away - $20 on a five-cent machine ," said Glenda Wilkinson, 68, of Pompano Beach. "I live seven minutes from this place. This is going to be bad for me." [Bradenton Herald]
Not if she keeps hitting those big $20 jackpots!

4 Comments:

Anonymous said...

Well, if JV is on CQ, I am off CQ.

One eliminated from the ticket.

Think I may need to play on Tri key with whichever non Todd horse I like best (say Nobiz) keyed over all of Todd's entrants.

Nobiz/all Todd/ all Todd.

Betcha Pletcher has had more entrants in the Derby without winning than there have been entrants that have not run at 2.

Kevin said...

Did OUTTA HERE run in the Derby without running as a 2yo? Seems I read that somewhere...

T.O. said...

From http://www.turfnsport.com/tips/derby-betting-tips.php

"Don't look for a horse that failed to start as a two year winning the Derby. A total of 40 have not made a two year old start and tried to win the Derby and none have managed to win."

While it's significant that no horse without a start at two has won, just 40 starters over 132 years is hardly a damning statistic given the sample size. It's certainly not enough to convince me not to throw my money at Curlin in hopes of capturing greatness.

John (AKA Not Too Swift) said...

Alan,

I too breathed a sigh of relief that Pletcher has wised up and replaced that incompetant Velasquez on your wonderhorse. I am sure it will make a world of difference :-)