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Thursday, September 04, 2008

Notes - Sept 4

- I love to follow trainer streaks as you know, but, on Monday, no way in the world was I going to have Premium Gold, the 7th winner in a row for trainer John Kimmel. For one thing, hot is hot as we know, but at a certain point it gets a little ridiculous, and I thought that was the case at five! I actually liked the ones on Saturday and Sunday, and would have made some money if I didn't bet the races stupidly. But Premium Gold, who paid $25.60, was just beyond the pale. He'd lost by 27 lengths to favored Discreet Treasure (I knew Discreet Cat, and you're no Discreet Cat), in his last race. That was on an unsealed good track. This horse has shown that he doesn't like off tracks, but I personally don't usually draw that much of a distinction between a harrowed good track and a fast one. Besides, Premium Gold ran his best Beyer on such a track at Belmont.

Not only did he win, he dominated from start to finish. Pretty amazing stuff. The meet's top trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, told the Form: "Another 10 days and Kimmel might have passed us." I think it only would have taken about a week. David Grening here points out that McLaughlin had five two-year old maiden winners (all of whom are either going or have gone directly on to a stakes), and I imagine there's more where that came from for Belmont.

Let's do some red-boarding on the Hopeful (in which Kimmel's streak ended when Break Water Edison ran 4th). Here's a case (another case if you put Premium Gold in the category) in which the matter of off vs. fast tracks seems to have been overlooked. It's one of the most basic principles of handicapping in my opinion, in the same category as judging a turf horse trying the dirt, or vice-versa. Vineyard Haven whistled in his debut, on a fast track at Calder, but then ran third, four lengths behind Desert Party, on a Saratoga track which was muddy. Yet Desert Party, who had run on only Arlington Poly and that off track, was the 3-1 second choice for the Hopeful, finishing sixth, while Frankel's colt paid $20.40. Perhaps if we were not already on our way home......

This is one of the ways in which I do better when I just wing it with the Form at the track rather than study extensively beforehand. Slop vs. fast track is a basic which I would depend on more in shotgun handicapping, as opposed to when I sometimes may get carried away when juggling too much information and overlook what's staring me right in the face.

Frankel is a part-owner of Vineyard Haven, having purchased him privately after his debut win, and now he sounds ready to flip him for a quick windfall.

I know we’re going to be getting some good offers on him now because he won like he’s a really nice horse. I think we’ll keep him, but it depends.” [Schenectady Gazette)
I get the feeling that some owners may be using two-year old pari-mutuel races as virtual under tack shows with a quick sale in mind. If not, in this case, the Champagne could be next.

Vineyard Haven is the first US stakes winner for two-time Woodward winner Lido Palace, standing for $5,000 in Florida.

- I broke about even for the long weekend, thanks in large part to having the 4th race triple on Monday ($111 less far too much invested). The horse which crushed me for the day/trip was Linda RaceRice's Dressed to Win in the 6th, ironically the horse who scratched to give me the conso double on Thursday. I loved Allen Jerkens' Whirling Agatha as a longshot for the exotics, so I woulda shoulda coulda had the exacta and triple with he (at 20-1) underneath Cobblestone Way on top had Rice's horse not stuck around.

- The jockeys seem to like it thus far. But we've heard that before. So let's wait and see.


Anonymous said...

Alan says/// would have made some moeny if I didn't bet the races STUPIDLY.

Well, isn't that the norm for you betting races STUPIDLY. You didn't tell me anything knew. Oh, and by the way who is Linda Race. I'ver heard of Linda Rice. Is this her sister Alan. duhhhhhh

Anonymous said...

Just as an aside, but do you think this lawsuit will help the potential sale talks with Hialeah Race Course?

NY Post Sotheby's Sues Halsey Minor

quote: "Mr. Minor told us the sole reason he hadn't paid was because he was owed money by others," auction-house execs said in a statement."

Doesn't that suggest cash flow issues? So venturing into deal that would cost far more can't put people at ease.

El Angelo said...

Glimmerglass: I'll put on my legal hat for a minute and say that this probably has nothing to do with any Hialeah negotiations and wouldn't hold up any sale. It's a complaint which simply states the allegations of Sotheby's in their most favorable terms, and may or may not be true, of course. Also, even if he did say that he was waiting for money from others, that doesn't necessarily mean he's cash poor, it may mean he's waiting for others to do their part of a deal so he can make payment.

Alan Mann said...

>>You didn't tell me anything knew.