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Saturday, September 20, 2008

Suffolk Today

- A few observations on today's MassCap card at Suffolk. In the second, Palmer's Approach is the 5-2 morning line favorite for Zito. He's a first-time starter by Najran with a long gap in his works. He may take money largely based on his trainer with the big crowd on hand, and who knows, maybe he's legit. But Double Devilish (3-1) drops back to the maiden ranks after a solid second in a state-bred stakes to legit allowance horse in Sultans Prince; and third place finisher No More Goodbyes won his next by eight with a 90 Beyer (though on a muddy track he may have liked).

Evening Attire isn't running here today, but if you're looking for a ten-year old gelding to fancy, check out Sing Me Back Home (6-1) in the third. Elevated in class confidently in his last, this son of Homebuilder took advantage of an inside trip and came flying late to miss by a nose to Rubiano Lad, a competitive sort at this level (and when is the Web-based Formulator going to have the individual past performance lines on the result charts?) who is running in the 5th race today. Sing Me Back Home has little early speed, and I don't know if there will be enough pace here. But trainer Ralph Whitney is 1-2-1 with his last five starters, so I'll be using this one at least on the bottom portion of my tickets.

In the 7th, the first leg in that all-stakes Pick Four, Hold On Smokey (4-1) is first time on the turf for trainer Donald Kielty, 10 for 18, a nifty 56% here at Suffolk Downs. Now this is the kind of horse I'd usually oppose - a runner with a solid dirt record figuring to get overbet in its first try on the grass. But in this case, he looks like lone speed from the rail, and at about five furlongs, the race could be over before he decides whether or not he likes the surface. And he has a Tomlinson number that indicates that he just might like it anyway. Sly (3-1) goes back to grass for the red hot Anthony Dutrow (who has shipped over several horses for today), and looks quite scary even though the cutback in distance is a big question mark.

In the 8th, The Drumtop, Nijinsky Bullet (3-1) is on a career form spree for trainer Rafael Ramos, 27% on the meeting. She faced the boys and defeated the aforementiond Hold On Smokey in her last, so a further upgrade may be warranted here. Two back was an eight length win in a key race (two winners, two seconds and a third). She figures to get a good setup for her late kick here with, barring scratches, Labadeel and Thunders Dove figuring to battle up front. Intentional Fever (3-1) is a stakes winner on dirt and turf. She was a little dull in her first two races of the year in July, but has really picked up the pace in the AM with some dazzling half mile moves. Got a feeling she'll be better today.

That's all I got, time to get ready to head out to the races.