RSS Feed for this Blog

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Saturday Morning Notes - Apr 11

In the La Puente Stakes at Santa Anita on Saturday, Leedstheway (8-1) moves inside after a fine turf and two-turn debut for trainer Jeff Mullins (4-2-1 with his last 11 at SA). Three-year old son of Cape Canaveral, now standing in Canada for $5,000 (Can), out of a full sister to the Arlington Handicap winner Trail City, was well supported as the 7-2 second choice in that race, and proved a handful for Tyler Baze. Eager to run, he moved up wide into the first turn and hounded Wall Street Wonder (9-2) through a steady series of 23 3/5 second quarters, and battled bravely before fading slightly to 4th late. With Baze opting for the other Mullins in here, Battle of Hastings (5-2), from the outside 12 hole, Joe Talamo may be able to establish inside position from the three this time, and perhaps the race under his belt and a shot of Air Power will get him home this time.

Lesson in Deceit (12-1) is an interesting one; a NY-bred who has run all seven of his career races at Turf Paradise. He's shown a clear affinity for the grass, and his last was a win in a grassy stakes race, one which has produced two subsequent Turf Paradise stakes winners, with an 85 Beyer that puts him in the mix here. Outside post is a negative, but new trainer Sean McCarthy has won with three of his last six starters.

- In the Arkansas Derby, Win Willy is the 7-2 second choice, and I'd certainly be inclined to support him at that price with Old Fashioned listed at 9-5. I just don't like Larry Jones' colt at all here. Given the way he's finished in the Southwest and Rebel, I figure that the extra distance here can only be detrimental. Jones is looking for a "good stalking trip;" similar I suppose to his race in the Southwest. But I think Papa Clem will prove to be a far tougher foe in this route than Silver City was, and just maybe Old Fashioned never gets by. The only thing that causes me doubt about Win Willy's upset rally in the Rebel is the fact that it was on a track rated 'good,' combined with his 412 Tomlinson. However, it was also Win Willy's first two turn try, and perhaps that was the reason for the improvement. At 7-2, I'd bet that is the case.

I also like Flying Private (6-1), moving in the right direction coming off a career best 94 when, with jockey Israel Ocampo, he ran second at 24-1 to Hold Me Back (who will run earlier in the Blue Grass) in the Lanes End. Of course, that raises the usual synthetic track questions. But this son of Fusiachi Pegasus signaled improvement when he cut back in distance two races back and ran second in the Mountain View (in what also was Ocampo's first time aboard).


Lorri Collins said...

I am waiting for the Kentucky Derby as I do every year since 1979.

I know trainers at GGF and the former BM. I can't tell you how much I miss Bay Meadows. It was always hard work on the backstretch in the mornings and a long day if you had a horse in the last race.

Pretty soon you were staggering around tired but happy if your horse made it in the top four.

Washing horses with soap and water, then running a squeegee over the coat to get most of the water off the horse. Put the blanket on the horse and walk him around the shed row for an hour to make sure the horse was dry and to prevent colic.

Good times at Bay Meadows and now it's gone.

I miss it so much!


Anonymous said...

I think Old Fashioned rebounds here and blows away this field.

Every horse is entitled to a bad day, would not be the first horse to throw in one clunker only to emerge later as a serious Derby threat.

There is no reason to think the distance did him in last time, he has already won a graded Stake at nine furlongs and projects a perfect trip off Clem, who will not set the fraction that Silver City did last time.

At 2-1 or more I am all in.

Anonymous said...

i believe old fashioned wins here but that doesn't make him a serious derby contender, win willy is totally false imo and picked up the pieces when the talented horses spit it. nobody comes out of arkansas this year with a chance i bet

Anonymous said...

No excuse for OF, Clem proves that CAL is the top division this year.

Anonymous said...

I take back the no excuses comment, OF injured in race, career may be over, certainly an excuse.