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Saturday, April 05, 2008

Good Start

- J Be K is the 2-1 favorite with 7 MTP, and I think that's a bad favorite. Man, I often end up regretting statements like that, but there it is, right out in the open. Go Go Shoot, 4-1 in the ML, is dead on the board at 7-1. Laysh is 9-2, nice price, and I think Gattopardo presents value at 9-2.

- As I mentioned, I like Laysh Laysh Laysh in the Bay Shore. This is the first graded stakes starter for David Jacobson since his return from disgrace and obscurity. He claimed him for 50K last fall at Keeneland, and the colt has progressed steadily since then. He may have been on to victory in the Capossela when Mario Pino got him in tight at the end. I guess it wasn't Pino's fault, because he's back to ride again.

I liked the win by Go Go Shoot, offered generously at 4-1 thus far, in the Capossela; he was going easily even to midstretch before a confident CC Lopez got him going. But he stretches out to seven, and there's some destructive looking speed types here in J Be K (can you believe he was 9-2 against Pyro?), Double Down Vinman, Gattopardo, and perhaps even Make the Point. Combine that with a trend of closers doing well here today, and Laysh Laysh Laysh looks tough. 8-1 morning line, he presently stands, with 14 MTP, at 4-1.

- I singled Lucky Island in the Pick Three. I like Jacobson's horse Laysh Laysh Laysh in the Bay Shore, and used a few of them in the Excelsior.

Lucky Island is a four-year old son of Lucky Roberto who has now won three of four for Shadwell. This was a nice effort moving up in class and stretching out to seven furlongs. Alan Garcia rated him confidently, and moved him three wide around the turn. He was gone once they turned for home; final furlong of 1:11.56, and a good final time of 1:23.84. I imagine we'll be seeing this one in stakes company soon. His dam is out of a sire named Equalize (Northern Jove/Northern Dancer), so pretty obscure bloodlines. He's an Argentinian bred, and it appears as if Shadwell bought him after a nine length win in his debut at San Isidro in Argentina.