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Thursday, April 03, 2008

Notes - April 3

- A poor effort by Mr. W.B. in the 4th at the Big A on Wednesday; after the race, Pablo Fragoso's only comment was "no finish." It didn't help that the horse was caught three wide throughout. I don't think he wanted any part of seven furlongs either. Not sure where to go with this horse this point, but Bob wants to give him six weeks off and try again at Monmouth.

Trainer Keith Lebarron is looking at a turf sprint stakes at Atlantic City for Primal Peak. Officials of that track emphatically denied the story on that the track could close after this season. If, that is, they get a piece of the action from the Atlantic City casinos' purse supplement. Remarkably, Atlantic City has lured thousands of patrons each day without promotion. This year's six day meeting will be exported for simulcasting for the first time.

- Denis of Cork has been installed as the 2-1 morning line favorite for the Illinois Derby, which drew a field of seven. It will be his first effort since he won the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn on Feb 18. That race has produced two subsequent stakes winners (Sierra Sunset - Rebel; Liberty Bull - Winstar Derby). Just keep in mind that the owners are looking at his sheets and trying to time his top.....and obviously not for this race. Trainer David Carroll said: "I could see a scenario there where one horse gets loose on the lead or something, but I can't worry about that.....What he needs to do is leave there with a big check." [DRF] Denis of Cork currently stands at #20 on the earnings list, though several in front of him figure to not go to the Derby.

Z Humor is listed as the 3-1 second choice, but I have little doubt that that role will go to Atoned (4-1), the Toddster's top Derby hope at this time off his close second in the Tampa Bay Derby; not really sure what the oddsmaker was thinking of there. With only $100,000 in graded earnings thus far, this son of Repent will need to finish third at the very least in order to qualify for the big race.


Anonymous said...

Odds maker must be thinking of Z Fortune.

Atoned should win the race, the arrogant nature of the Dennis Of Cork folks almost makes me want to root for off the board finish.

They he can peak in the Preakness.


Harl said...

DENIS OF CORK really needs to finish at least second, especially with a lot of big money at stake in the Wood, Santa Anita, Arkansas, and Blue Grass coming up, doesn't he?

He could get skipped by several horses even with a 3rd place finish in Illinois. Of course, I haven't seen an updated graded earnings list...

Alan Mann said...

Harl - Here's a graded earnings list that I found. There are several in the top 20 that aren't going to go - Kodiak Kowboy, Majestic Warrior, Georgie Boy, I think Adriano, and I'd guess Tale of Ekati and Salute the Sarge too.

Anonymous said...

I'm planning right now to attend the Illinois Derby. The weather should set up for a very fast track although I wish the field was 10+.

(Rain this afternoon, sprinkles tomorrow then no rain Saturday and temps rising to 60. Hawthorne's surface will be fast)

The DoC fans shouldn't write off Golden Spikes from possibly pulling this one off. Although Denis of Cork has to show his mettle here or skip the Ky Derby.

Note the local horse, Instill, who did win the $100k Jim Edgar Illinois Futurity but isn't up to this level of competition.

Just to reiterate the tv schedule, NBC looks to be airing the Wood and SA Derby if this page is correct.

Who else is looking forward to seeing Zenyatta vs. Ginger Punch in the Apple Blossom? I've loved the style of Zenyatta (who hasn't) in her 3 prior wow efforts. Props to Jerry Moss for not ducking this matchup until say Saratoga.

Harl said...

Thanks, that list helps a lot. The one I saw earlier this week didn't look like it had been updated since 2007.

Anonymous said...

Another graded list that includes the last round of TC nominated horses - so you have the fillies like Proud Spell and Eight Bells

BloodHorse Graded Earnings as of 4-1-08

Is Anak Nakal still going to the Derby? His last couple of efforts weren't pathetic (8th and 7th, respectively) to say the least.

steve in nc said...

Looking at his Ragozin Sheet, I think your horse, Mr. W.B., looks pretty healthy and has more room to develop.

(I'm just a Ragozin customer and have no idea whether either Len would concur on my Sheet read here -- get in touch with them if you want a professional opinion.)

Anyway, Mr. W.Bs's problem has been that he has had a flat line -- very few bounces but little development. Maybe the shoes were an issue, or maybe your new trainer will find some other key to unlock this horse's not great, but not totally lacking potential.

His last race at the PHA was exactly what I'd want to see on his Sheet -- a half-point new top. And he has developed only
2-1/2 points since his 2yo top. The bounce on Wednesday was to be expected on short rest, and I don't think his A race would have made him a contender anyway.

Your idea of keeping him dashing, giving him a little break, and then maybe some easier competition may bear some fruit. Of course, if you put the turf shoes back on him first for a race or two to really darken the form, you'll let us know before they come back off, right? Good luck with him!

Alan Mann said...

Steve - Thanks for the sheet info. My buddy Bob had the Thoroughgraph sheets, which painted a similar picture. I don't think seven furlongs was at all for him, and the nine days rest didn't help either.

He's going to get six weeks off. The turf shoes was Pyramid Peak. He ran his worst race when Bob claimed him, and was discovered to be wearing turf shoes when he got to the barn. He got a 95 Beyer for his second last week, and the trainer is considering a five furlong turf stakes at Atlantic City. He thinks he'll absolutely love the grass.