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Friday, August 03, 2007

Late Post Time (Not Late Enough)

- I don't think I'd like living in this time zone. I feel like I miss everything. I'm barely done with breakfast and the 1st at Saratoga is over. It's only 1:25 as I write this, and the card is nearly over! By the time I'm eating dinner, the Mets and Yanks games are already done, and there's no baseball to watch at all, except the West Coast teams I know nothing about because they play so damn late. I feel like everything is passing me by, including that Motion horse who won at the Spa on Wednesday, damn!

And of course, there's no Friday night Del Mar racing, because I'm at Del Mar, and it starts at 4 PM instead. More time for the beach today, but an encroachment on the glorious time before sunset back at the condo on our last evening here; I don't think I'll be hanging for the finale (though we may come back to check out the Violent Femmes). Tomorrow, in an extremely ill-conceived plan, we have to check out of here early and live out of our suitcases for the entire day until the 9 PM redeye flight back to New York. Who do you think planned that, and why?

A few thoughts on this evening's afternoon's races. Brad Free wrote in his analysis today that at six furlongs, 14 of the 26 races on the main track were won by a horse either in front or within a length after a quarter mile. "Speed does carry, for horses that are fit." But I would say that the speed sometimes endures, rather than carry. There have been two wire jobs in the last two days - Respecttheofficer was very good to repel the bid of a hot first-timer on the turn, but then got the last sixteenth in seven seconds while widening her lead. Newton's Memory got his last quarter in 27.68 seconds. So speed is certainly something that I'm not looking for, though I don't totally ignore it if it seems logical.

In the first, Sugar Doll is dropping in claiming price after a win. But she drops to the level of her claim price, and with a $28,000 purse at stake, I don't think it's a suspicious drop. Her win came over this track and she looks tough here.

I like two horses in the third. Marqz Melody has improved nicely, and won her last in her first try around two turns. That race has produced a winner, a second, and three thirds. And she has a bullet work over the Poly. Forest Miss also has a nice progression of figs, and a win at this distance over the track, graduating at a higher claiming level than did Marqz Melody. I'll check out the exacta prices on these two.

Jeff Mullins had two winners and a second on Thursday, and is 19-5-4-3 for the meet.
He starts Coronas at Delmar in the 4th. The race is just a guessing game, but be aware that the barn is hot if you're playing the big Pick Six.

I like Nootka Island in the fifth. She's won three in a row, all on the grass, and tries Poly for the first time. She's certainly eligible to transfer that form here in a spot in which she seems to fit very well. Michael Baze goes elsewhere, but Victor wins at 26% for trainer Mike Mitchell.

The feature is a tough Cal-bred stakes affair, and I'm going to go for Jack's Wild. Russell Baze is making a rare appearance to ride the likely favorite Bold Chieftain, who would appear to have a class edge here. But his figs don't at all stand apart from the rest of the field; and he may get early challenges from Epic Power and returnee Lucky J.H. If that's the case, look for Jack's Wild to be closing strongly. I'm throwing out his last two - a decent 5th on Poly in the Californian, and his last, in which he was faced with an impossible pace scneario in a small field. He looks worth a shot if he's around his 9-2 morning line odds.

That's it, gotta go, have a great day!

1 Comment:

Brett said...

I've been doing pretty well at Del Mar so far. I have a couple no-no's... no long layoff horses, horses must train over DMTC track well (despite what the trainers say), horse must be fit, and prefer pace stalkers or leaders.

It's been a fun meet so far, hit 5 of 6 on the Pick 6 today and the late pick four, not bad.