Travers Talk

- So no, the Travers hasn't created much buzz, and, judging from the fact that neither Wednesday nor Thursday's crowd cracked the 20,000 mark, I'm not expecting an overly huge attendance today. The talk of course has been about the effect of the Breeders Cup on the race, with Curlin and Any Given Saturday skipping it as unsuitable for their longer term goals. There's nothing new about the Breeders Cup turning races into preps; that very effect on Belmont's Fall Championship Series was apparent immediately upon the creation of the concept. The difference is that the effect is now extending earlier into the season. Used to be that it wasn't until after the summer that trainers would worry about prepping for the big day. Now, with the extra time between fewer races, the effect of the Breeders Cup actually radiated out to the spring, when Street Sense skipped the Belmont for the same reason that Curlin and Any Given Saturday will be absent today.

In a more perfect world where thoroughbreds were durable and able to run back often, instead of "win and you're in," we'd have "win or you're out!" If horses had to compete in races throughout the year and accumulate points in order to qualify for the Championships, then the whole season would build towards the Breeders Cup instead of being usurped by it. However, these ideas are obviously and unfortunately moot the way things are now, so the industry has to work with what they have. Which is not much right now.

So, we have a Travers without any rivalries, real implications, or drama. A mere showcase for the first Kentucky Derby winner to run at the Spa at age three since 1995 (a pretty astounding statistic). So when I sat down to write my stakes analysis of the race for the Saratoga Special, I figured that it shouldn't take me long to go through the race and crown Carl Nafzger's horse as the Travers champ. But I ended up picking Sightseeing instead. Do you think I'm nuts? I'm wondering myself.

But hell, it's easier to back an opinion merely with a non-existent reputation than with my money, so why not go out on a limb? Because I could look like a jerk? Nah, no one is gonna remember another loser by a public handicapper, a profession in which even the best are wrong most of the time.

What happened is that I watched the Jim Dandy, really paying close attention for the first time, just on Friday; I'd missed the race, as I did nearly everything else that happened on the East Coast when I was out at Del Mar. I assumed it was just a routine prep win for a horse that was looking ahead. But what I saw was Calvin Borel going to the whip on the Derby winner 13 times as he worked hard to put away CP West, a horse that, despite his improved form, I just don't think that much of. Perhaps this is meaningless; we know that Nafzger can point his horses for a big race, and that Street Sense rebounded from a disappointing (though odd) Blue Grass to win the roses three weeks hence. Or, just maybe, the horse has not regained his peak spring form.

Which race has Nafzger really been pointing him to anyway? If his comments defending his passing of the Belmont are to be taken as fact, it's the Classic. On the other hand, I think that Shug McGaughey has been pointing Sightseeing for this race since the spring, when he skipped the Derby following his fine run in the Wood. His Jim Dandy is a bit better than it looks on paper, as Edgar Prado had to alter course late before a final late burst that, according to the trainer, carried over very well to the gallop out. He's worked brilliantly since then, and Shug seems really hepped up. I think he'll love the added distance (note that Street Sense is the only horse in the field to have even attempted ten furlongs), and I for one wouldn't be shocked to see him passing Street Sense in the shadow of the wore. (Though I must admit that I feel as if I'm writing this to convince myself that that's really a possibility.)

In the King's Bishop, I picked First Defence, King of the Roxy, and Teuflesberg in the paper....but honestly, I have little clue in this puzzler. I've been hoping that Hard Spun would be bet down, but no one I've spoken to likes him. So maybe he'll be 7-2 and I'll end up playing him after all. First Defence is reported to be training extremely well, and might be able to control the pace from his outside post. King of the Roxy has won Grade 2's at 7 and 7 1/2 furlongs, and seems a definite possibility for the hot Team Valor, and the recovering Toddster. And Teuflesberg may just well be the best sprinter in this group. He followed up his win in the Woody Stephens with a second to Black Seventeen in the Carry Back. That race has been incredibly productive - every horse that has run back (that's all except the winner for a total of eight) has been either first or second. His second on the grass went to further demonstrate his ample versatility. Don't know if he's value at his 7-2 morning line, but he certainly figures to be tough.