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Friday, August 31, 2007

Notes - Sept 1 [With Update]

- So it figures, I post my Friday picks here and get shut out for the day. How embarrassing. Of course, it was a pretty impossible day as evidenced by the $11,000 payoff for five out of the pick six. I was at Saratoga for the final weekend last year, and seem to recall the results being totally baffling. Of course, all these maiden races - especially the cheap ones - don't make it any easier. And there are five more of them on Saturday. I don't believe I'm going to fight the Head Chef's suggestion to go to the beach. In any event, though I haven't been doing that terribly of late, my selections on this site have not fared very well at all.

So I was thinking I should stop or cut back. But I recall a friend from long, long ago who, when faced with a cold streak, would make sure to bet each and every race. His theory was that he would be getting all of the bad bets out of his system, and just get them over with. Too bad there was no simulcasting then, he could have gotten an entire year's worth of bad bets over with in one day.

So with that in mind, I'm going to soldier on and tell you who I like in the Forego; do with it what you see fit. I won't be offended. [UPDATE: Chatain has a bruised foot and was being fitted with a special shoe. Thanks to reader affirmedny for pointing out the article in the Form, which is not new. Just missed it.] My pick is Chatain, 5-1 morning line for Angel Penna Jr. After winning the one-turn one-mile Hal's Hope at Gulfstream earlier this year, he was stretched out to two turns. He ran fine in the Donn, checking in 4th, just 2 1/4 behind Invasor; subsequently he ran poorly (as the 6-5 favorite) in the Ben Ali on the Poly at Keeneland. Penna then gave him some time off, and brought him back in a six furlong allowance at the Spa on Aug 6. I watched the replay, and this was a very stylish win. Cornelio Velasquez had his hands full restraining him early, but horse and rider were relaxed and settled rounding the turn. The jockey waited patiently behind horses, saving a bit of ground on the turn, and angled out for room turning for home. I love seeing a horse respond as if by push button command, and that's exactly what Chatain did, powering past the field without being shown a whip, and easing up at the wire. It was a perfect prep. He's never been seven furlongs, but as mentioned, he's been a flat mile, so he'll have no problem with the distance.

As for High Finance, there's no doubt he looks imposing, but he could have his hands full with Atilla's Storm up front. And besides, the favorites are dropping like Republicans in Washington, so why not take a shot?

- Two more winners for Linda Rice on Friday, and she's arguably the hottest trainer on the grounds now. That gives her ten, and don't look now but she's just one win behind the Toddster, who's currently tied with Contessa for third in the trainer standings. Leading trainer Bill Mott added his 21st win of the meeting with 8-1 Namaste's Wish. Kent Desormeaux was on board again, and you might wonder how they could let any horse with that combo go off at that price. But Namaste's Wish disappointed in two well-bet dirt efforts, losing by a combined 37 lengths. You can't bet a trainer's horses just blindly, and I guess there was little enthusiasm for a full sister to Purge trying the grass for the first time.

As mentioned in the prior post, Biancone took the With Anticipation with Nownownow. It was the first grass try for the son of Whywhywhy, and the first stakes winner for that Mr. Greeley first-year sire, standing for $7500 at Gainesway. This colt still had a lot of ground to make up entering the final turn, and seemed hopelessly boxed on the hedge. It took Julien Leparoux until midstretch to finally find a seam, but Nownownow really exploded once clear and won by a widening three lengths in a very nice effort.

7 Comments:

Anonymous said...

Old horseplayers have long known that a slight change in betting strategy is needed as Getaway Day approaches, and on Getaway Day itself. You look for entries whose trainers have been carefully holding them back looking for soft spots at the end of the meeting, and hopefully go off at fairly long odds, say, 10-1 and up. My wise old handicapping mentor used to say watch for the betting stables that need "shipping money" as the end of the meet nears, and especially on Getaway Day. I have found that strategy to be productive in Spa meets gone by and will employ the same thinking on Monday. Give it a try, an d when looking at each entry in a race first ask yourself: "Why is this horse entered today when there may have been other races with similar conditions carded earlier in the meeting? Have the better competitors (for the conditions of this race) already been shipped down to Belmont or elsewhere? Has the trainer found a soft spot here, a soft spot undetected by the crowd?" Then keep a close eye on the tote board, and see which relatively long odds horses start to show some signs of life as post time nears. /S/ Green Mtn Punter

affirmedny said...

Alan, read article in today's Form before bettin Chatain. He's being equpped with a special shoe after bruising a foot.

alan said...

>>Alan, read article in today's Form before bettin Chatain. He's being equpped with a special shoe after bruising a foot.

You see, I knew I shouldn't have posted that pick here!

Jim L said...

Alan,

That was my post on Biancone. Well, two of them. Guess I didn't have it set to my name. Your points are terrific on the matter.

Here's a site about Finger Lakes wine country.

http://www.fingerlakeswine.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/99999999/SPECIALS0903/70525012

We're still recovering from the shock of the new car getting slammed.

Jim L said...

Charlie Heyward was a guest on the Capital OTB show this morning.

He offered this: there might have been a bigger issue/problem with the milkshakes because the levels have come way down.

Jim L said...

One mention about the Racing Museum & Hall of Fame............they have displays on dirt and turf racing, but nothing about Polytrack, Tapeta, etc.

This has been around for a year at Ellis Park, so they should include this in a new display.

Anonymous said...

I am hoping Lawyer Ron bounces to the moon and Sun King rebounds with blinkers off.

Boxed Sunny with the Jerkins' boyz.

Sunny, Corinthian, Political Force.

Bombs Away the last weekend!!