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Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Passion in the Adirondack(s)

- I saw that El Angelo posted a comment on Cristblog complaining about the quality of the races last week. Well, wait until he sees Thursday's card! I recalled from last year that the middle of the meeting featured a big diet of state-bred races, even maiden claimers, and restricted claiming races; and we'll certainly get to see some of those on Thursday. There is at least the Special for two-year olds that day, and, as noted by reader jeff, The Roundhouse is amongst the entries. Circular Quay's baby brother, by Fusaichi Pegasus, rallied well for third in the Sanford after drifting out into the middle of the track turning for home. It says in the comment line that he was carried wide, which I don't really see....but he was really wide, let's leave it at that. I do like him, but morning line favorite Kodiak Kowboy was very impressive visually winning the Bashford Manor under a highly confident ride by Corey Lanerie.

Working backwards, Wednesday's feature is the Adirondack, for the baby fillies. And we'll see the second of Baffert's horses shipped from Del Mar (this one is not owned by Zayat Stables). More Happy (Vindication) seemed to like the Poly just fine, with a debut victory, defeating Foxy Danseur, who ran third to Tasha's Miracle in the Sorrento. She worked a bullet 59 seconds (of 48) over this track, but she looks like a play-against to me if she's at or below her 2-1 morning line odds.

Passion won very easily for Pletcher at Arlington (where the trainer is winning at a 29% rate), and forget about that 78 Beyer in her debut. Renee Douglas sat chilly on this daughter of Came Home, shook her up midstretch for a little exercise, and then, after peeking back at the competition left far behind, eased her up well before the wire. The second and 4th horses next finished 2nd and first in maiden specials respectively. Passion is a half-sister to the graded winner Kumari Continent. Phantom Income (Montbrook) was also a visually impressive debut winner, at Belmont, but in a field of just four others that we know little about - the only one to run back ran a distant 9th. So I'm going to rate Passion over Phantom Income, (who is out of a half to Ghostzapper and City Zip) despite the Polytrack thing.

jeff also mentioned that I Promise held on well on an opening day track that seemed tough on front runners. I looked back at the charts from that day, and the results were most definitely skewed towards deepish closers, so thanks for pointing that out. (Maybe.) This daughter of Hook and Ladder's Moss Pace figs indicate that she'll be right up on the lead once again. And Sky Mom is interesting in that her best race by far Beyer-wise was her only one of four not on Polytrack; in fact, it's the highest number in the race, eight better than More Happy's 86.

So I'll go with Passion; she's 6-1 morning line, and at the risk of repeating myself, we saw Pletcher win some stakes at decent prices here last year (including the now-retired Cotton Blossom's win in the Schuylerville last year at 8-1. And I prefer I Promise and Sky Mom over Phantom Income and More Happy for second, though I'll probably wuss out and use the latter defensively instead of being a man and taking a stand.

1 Comment:

Anonymous said...

Phantom Income declared a non-starter; might as well have done the same with I Promise, who showed absolutely no interest in running, trailing all the way around.