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Saturday, September 16, 2006

Belmont Notes - Sept 16

- Trainer John Hertler is worth a mention for his recent lucrative results at Belmont at Saratoga. He had two winners at Saratoga, both of the bombshell variety - first-timer Baxter paid $88.00 on July 31, and though it took the trainer a full month to return to the winner's circle there, Oden's Tale rewarded $59 to his backers. On closing day, Classic Marilyn ran a game second at 19-1.

At Belmont thus far, Hertler has sent out six runners; two of them crossed the wire first. Landofopportunity returned $87.50 in Thursday's second, and then in the 6th, his Citifest finished first at 11-1, but was DQ'd to second after bearing out and bumping the runner-up in the stretch. The day before, Classic Marilyn once again proved Fundamentally Loathsome to those who left her out of the exactas, again hanging tough for the place, this time at 15-1. On opening day, Deelites Gold rallied for a close third at 18-1.

So I wouldn't dismiss the chances of Distant Tycoon, 15-1 in Saturday's 4th - he finished a very decent 5th despite traffic trouble in his debut in May; nor of Retribution in Sunday's 9th. Though the latter race is likely to be taken off the turf, note that this one was a longshot winner for Hertler on July 8th, scoring on the grass at 18-1.

- Grand Merger, a John Kimmel-trained two-year old filly who romped by 11 in the slop in the 4th at Belmont on Friday, is a full-sister to Stephen Got Even (AP Indy) who graduated in her second start.

- The attendance at Belmont on Friday was under 2,000 for the second rainy day in a row.


Anonymous said...

The Christopher Paasch trio of Princple Secret, Baltimore Drive, and Prime Ruler each posted 5-furlong workouts over the new Hollywood Park polytrack this morning, though it doesn't appear they worked in company. Prime Ruler recorded the bullet drill (1/40) in 59.80 seconds. Principle Secret checked in at 100.60 (3/40), while Baltimore Drive clocked an exceedingly slow 104.20 (37/40). Maybe he didn't like the polytrack? In any case, i've noticed that Principle Secret is having his works spaced pretty far apart lately, approximately 10 days. He's showing drills on 9/16, 9/6, and 8/26. Baltimore Drive's workatab is even more sparse, as he shows drills on 9/16, 9/2, and 8/19. Not quite sure what's going on there.

Anonymous said...

I decided the other day to take a small shot on Principle Secret for the Juvenile @ 15/1. I had originally passed when the number came out, because i thought it was very marginal. He may well be the best 2yo in the country (particularly with EZ Warrior out of action), but the Juvenile is a two-turn race, and this horse hasn't even been 7 furlongs yet. Throw in the non-California surface on Breeders Cup Day, plus Circular Quay and some other nice colts, and 15/1 six weeks out is no bargain. In fact, it's probably right where it should be. But as i said, i decided to take a small shot anyway, because he'll only race once more before the big one (most likely in the Norfolk), and if he wins impressively there (as he'll be a heavy favorite to do), then he'll probably come pretty short on Breeders Cup Day. Maybe 3/1 or thereabouts, perhaps shorter depending on what Circular Quay does next time out. So i go down there today to place my wager, and lo and behold, he's now been dropped to 8/1. Eight-to-freaking-one. Odds cut in half, and the horse hasn't even run since July. Hell, he's barely had his name in the Racing Form since then! Perhaps somebody bet him, but i certainly can't see anyone going crazy at the afore-mentioned 15/1. So all that for nothing. If he wins, he wins, but i won't lose any sleep over passing at that number. Incidentally, after Prime Ruler worked that bullet @ Pollywood yesterday, i wonder if perhaps he'll turn up in Kentucky for a Polytrack stakes. I'm sure Paasch doesn't want to run him against Principle Secret in the Norfolk anyway. Just a thought.

Anonymous said...

Always enjoy reading your blog..but giving out a 25/1 shot is truly amazing
Guess every dog...
Great memory to keep up w/trainers like Hertler.
If you have the time(joking),could you let us know what his ROI is during this period?

thanx kindly,

Anonymous said...

So Distant Tycoon won yesterday? Nice foresight, Alan. Hope you had a few bucks on him.

Btw, i mentioned Principle Secret hadn't run since July. The Best Pal was actually run on August 13th.