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Sunday, September 10, 2006

Brilliant and Miraculous at Delaware

- The turf was soft at Delaware, and Fernando Jara blamed the going for the last place finish by the previously unbeaten After Market. "He had never been on a track like this. He just did not run today." [Bloodhorse] Man, he was even money and barely ran a step. But personally, I'd also consider that it was the first time he faced adversity - he had a bad post for the first time, and encountered conditions and a pace scenario that was not ideal. Not to take anything away from his winning his first four races, but one got the feeling that he was beatable. If you don't mind me doing a little redboarding, maybe if I was paying attention to the race....

Brilliant had been undefeated on grass before checking in fifth, two lengths behind After Market in the Hall of Fame at Saratoga. He broke from the eight post and got himself caught three wide on the turn, and closer to the pace than usual. So moving into the three post, 9-2 seems like a fair price, especially with the grand benefit of the hindsight of his six length win! By the Mile winner War Chant (for whom he's the only stakes winner of the year), inbred to Roberto and Princequillo, out of a full sister to the Bernard Baruch winner Furiously. Hey Walter, can I get 50-1 or so on him in the Mile?

I also wouldn't be hesitant to bet against After Market next time he runs if the bettors blame his showing 100% on the soft track. I'm not saying he would have run last under any turf condition, but he may not have beaten Brilliant regardless given the post positions.

Also worth noting the performance one race later by Miraculous Miss, the once-beaten filly who was injured in a frightening flip in the starting gate for the Acorn on June 10. She needed 10 stitches to close a cut on her hind leg and six more for a cut over her eye.

"It was a solid 3 1/2 weeks before she even hit the racetrack again," Klesaris said [before the race]. "There are no easy spots, but she needs to get going. She's been training very well, and we are going to give her a run." []
Run she did, and against older fillies and mares too, winning the Endine, a Grade 3 at six furlongs. She's now six-for-six on fast tracks, at distances up to a one-turn mile. Miraculous Miss is a half-sister to Tiger Heart, second in the Vosburgh and the De Francis Memorial.


Anonymous said...

The most recent sheet i have is dated Aug. 23, and at that time Brilliant was unlisted for the Mile. He was listed for the Turf, however, @ 50/1.

Speaking of the Turf, Dylan Thomas defeated Ouija Board by a neck over the weekend, as the surprising favorite. The Irish Derby winner is apparently headed for the Breeders Cup, though not necessarily for the Turf. His trainer, Aiden O'Brien, said he'd "love to take a shot on the dirt". He's done so recently with Hawk Wing, Giant's Causeway, and Galileo, so i'm sure he's probably serious. Especially since he already has Hurricane Run pointing at the race (assuming that one comes out of the Arc okay). Ouija Board will regroup, and likely head straight to the F&M Turf, which is shaping up as perhaps the best race on the card.

Anonymous said...

WOW. I just read that Shirocco may be targeting the Classic as well. That one scored a neck victory over the afore-mentioned Hurricane Run today, as both horses prepped for their Arc run. Connections of Shirocco said after the race that the Classic is "a strong possibility". This horse would be the FAVORITE in the Turf, assuming he can hold serve over Hurricane Run in the Big One next month. Those two have split decisions thus far, with Shirocco winning today, and of course Hurricane Run winning the Arc last year (Shirocco was 4th in the Arc before winning the Turf, if memory serves). I've got a feeling those two are running into a buzzsaw, however, in the Japanese superstar Deep Impact. You may remember that Hurricane Run scored a close win over the recently-deceased Electrocutionist in the King George, with the Japanese horse Heart's Cry a very close third. There's not much question that Deep Impact is superior to Heart's Cry, and Heart's Cry proved he can match strides with the top Euro's by beating Ouija Board in Dubai, along with his fine King George run. Chances are that Deep Impact is the best turf horse in the world, period. We should get that answer in the Arc, where Deep Impact may go off no better than third choice. Good betting oppurtunity there, btw, assuming you guys are able to bet the Arc. He's pretty much guaranteed to pass on the Breeders Cup though, regardless of what happens at Longchamp.