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Friday, September 22, 2006

Octave Seeks High Note

- I don't know if it means anything, but the two fillies that came out of Magical Ride's debut to win their next race, Five Star Daydream and Cherokee Shiek, both regressed significantly Beyer-wise despite winning. Five Star Daydream went from an 89 to a 79, and Chrokee Shiek went from an 82 to a 72, and then to a 62 running second in allowance company. So, is it possible that Magical Ride's 102 Beyer in her winning debut at Belmont is too high?

Well, whether it really is or not, it seems like a reasonable theory and a good enough reason to try and beat Magical Ride, listed as the 7-5 favorite in the Grade 1 Matron at Belmont. As I mentioned the other day, horseplayers can be a forgiving lot, and George Arnold's filly seems to be forgiven for fading to third after running a first quarter of 21.83 in the Adirondack. But the track seemed pretty quick that day - an earlier maiden race for 2 yo colts went the first quarter in 22.04. And who's to say that she won't get involved in a speed duel again, with Featherbed, Cash's Girl, and Eternal Grace all possible pace factors?

I'm not afraid of the low Beyers on Octave, nor the presence of Garrett Gomez for Pletcher instead of Velazquez, who rides the trainer's Featherbed instead. Gomez was aboard for Octave's win in the Adirondack, and Pletcher seems to stick with a rider once he's had success on a particular horse. The pace could be favorable again, and the stretchout to seven furlongs should help a lot for this classy looking daughter of Unbridled's Song, out of a stakes winning daughter of personal favorite Dr. Carter.