Bias Points

- Here's a couple of interesting points made by Keeneland's track superintendent Mike Young in a column by the Form's Steve Klein (sub. or print ed. only), which I'll take one at a time.

"No, I wouldn't make changes based on one day....I don't think you can judge a track based on one day."

He's talking about biases, and I've often complained here about people who declare track biases after a couple of races, no less an entire day; and that drives me crazy, as you may know.

Steve Davidowitz, in his column on DRF Plus this week, modestly asserts that he coined the phrase 'track bias' 40 years ago, and adds: Biases do not occur as often as most players believe. [again, sub. only, sorry]

* When the first two or three races are won by front-runners, a bias should not be assumed unless there was a strength-sapping speed duel that should have depleted their energy reserves.

* When two or three speed horses gang up on each other and at least two continue to hold off the late speed to the wire, a speed bias might be in play. Likewise, when a front-runner or two wins the first two races on the card, a bias should not be assumed unless the horses were stone-cold quitters. In that case, these weak-hearted horses may well have been carried farther by the track.

And the second point that Young makes, responding to the suggestion that the track may favor closers: "I guarantee that you won't hear as many people complaining about it as you would if it helped the speed."

And that's surely the truth. Speed biases are boring, boring, and more boring, while horses closing from far back help to make the game exciting. If Polytrack results in more of that, it's another reason why it will be good for the game.