The Juvenile

- Like its filly counterpart, the fastest contenders, at least in terms of Beyer figures, come from the west coast. Stormello (Stormy Atlantic) and Principle Secret (Sea of Secrets) both earned a 96 in running 1-2 in the Norfolk. Both overcame adversity to get to the finish almost together; Principle Secret set a quick and contested pace, finally shaking off Shake the Diplomat after six furlongs in 1:10.32. Meanwhile, Stormello, as Illman notes in his excellent prep race notes on DRF Plus, was lathered up on his neck and between his hind legs, and seemed a bit eager chasing the pace while three wide going into the first turn. He was also at least three wide all around the turn. So it was understandable that these were two tired colts at the end. The final quarter and sixteenth took 26.03 and 6.75 seconds. It seemed like a taxing effort for both, as Principle Secret battled back gamely, and I wonder if either or both may bounce in the Juvenile.

Principle Secret showed a change of tactics going for the lead in his first two-turn try, and if he tries that again, he'll have some company from Pegasus Wind (Fusaichi Pegasus). Lukas' colt has shown a high turn of speed, and held well for third in the Champagne. He's rated in his shorter races, and could have a nice target in Pegasus Wind if he can do so again.

Great Hunter (Aptitude) and Circular Quay (Thunder Gulch) both acquitted themselves well running one-two in the Breeders Futurity on the Polytrack. Yes, they may have benefited from the closer's bias, but they both affirmed their form in their first two-turn tries. They both rallied wide and had to contend with traffic and bumping. Circular Quay came into the stretch particularly wide after being blind switched around the turn, and then bore out mid-stretch before settling back in and getting the place spot.

Street Sense (Street Cry) covered the most ground of all in the race; at least four wide on both turns, he traveled an extra 38.5 feet than the winner. He led into the stretch, and jockey Calvin Borel told Illman he may have moved too soon. "Next time, we'll sit and wait a little longer."

But I have to say that I'm currently leaning towards Pletcher's two entries coming from New York, even though they're both trying two turns for the first time. I loved the win by Scat Daddy (Johannesburg) in the Champagne, and still maintain that he was the best horse in the race, Nobiz Like Shobiz included. Scat Daddy ran a final quarter of 23 4/5 to run that one down, according to Formulator. It was a thoroughly professional performance, and he could be real tough here. If, of course, he gets two turns. He's out of a mare by Mr. Prospector, to whom he's inbred 4x2. His second dam, Likable Style (Nijinsky), was a Grade 1 winner (Las Virgenes) around two turns. He has a high Tomlinson (346) and a low dosage (2.47), so you'd think this distance is within his ability.

King of the Roxy (Littleexpectations), an $8,000 yearling, was purchased privately by Team Valor after Barry Irwin saw him on TV and liked the way he took the turn, his modest pedigree notwithstanding. "Young horses usually flail with their right leg and float out, but he cut the corner like an old pro," Irwin said. "He had good action."." [Bloodhorse]

He's displayed good acceleration coming wide out of the turn in each of his subsequent starts since being purchased and transferred to Pletcher, most recently his win in the seven furlong Futurity; before that a close second to the highly regarded Chace City, who would have been amongst the favorites here. And there is some pedigree there too; he's out of a dam by Bold Forbes, known for speed, but a Derby/Belmont winner; and if you look under his third dam, you'll find Grade/Group 1 winners Al Bahathri, Spanish Fern, Mea Domina, and Al Haafhd.

Malt Magic (Cherokee Run) had trouble but still ran poorly in the Norfolk. His prior was a romp in his two-turn debut. He's a full brother to the Arkansas Derby winner Sir Cherokee. I don't like C P West (Came Home), making his third career start and first at a distance.

Most Interested In: Scat Daddy and King of the Roxy; Street Sense at a price

Standing Against: None of the others considered top contenders with any confidence at all, though I'm leaning against the West Coast horses as possible underlays. Tough race.