- Walter took out the calculator, and the fractions for the Winstar Oaks, as compared to the Winstar Derby, don't seem to make much sense. Here are the splits for each race (the Oaks was 1 1/16, the Derby a mile and an eighth), followed by Walter's analysis of what seems to be wrong:
23.33, 47.46, 114.27, 139.47, 145.18Tough Tiz's Sis came in with a 79 Beyer, very low, as Walter surmised. Song of Navarone's 102 was faster than the Tampa Bay Derby, which raised some eyebrows here right off the bat (though it doesn't seem impossible when you look at the colt's progressive pattern of Beyers). Perhaps the best way to solve this is to do what was done with Secretariat's Preakness; simply get out a stopwatch and time the replay, or watch the two races side by side. It may be impossible to get exact times watching them pass the poles on a TV or computer screen; but there's such a difference between the fractions of the two races, that absolute precision wouldn't be necessary in this case. Anybody have a stopwatch and some free time?
22.50, 47.26, 111.63, 136.89, 149.53
After hitting the half-mile in roughly equal time, it somehow took the Oaks leader an extra 2.44 seconds (roughly 15 lengths) to run the next quarter mile? Gimme a break. And then, after losing 2.44 seconds in the span of a quarter-mile, she was somehow able to match them in the next quarter-mile (25.20 to 25.26)? Again, gimme a break. Finally, look at her closing fraction. We're supposed to believe she got her final sixteenth in 5.71 seconds? That's impossible for a two-turn race on dirt, particularly if you're slow enough to run a mile in 139.47. So obviously, the time for the WinStar Oaks is a complete farce (at least after the first half-mile). I was concerned that this would result in an extraordinarily low (and incorrect) Beyer figure for Tough Tiz's Sis. Now, it looks as if it has affected Song of Navarone's Beyer as well. Because the surface variant has apparently been thrown out of whack by the faulty time in the Oaks. And if the timer was wrong for that one (which it definitely was), how do we know it was accurate for the WinStar Derby just a half-hour later?