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Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Belmont Notes

- Maiden claimers make up four out of the nine races at Belmont on Thursday; but three others on the card are worth checking out. In the first, Chestoria (8-5) makes her first start since running a close fifth in the Grade 1 Garden City here last September. She was beaten just over two lengths by Alexander Tango, who two months later got spooked at night on the farm, and was killed when she ran into a fence. There are some accidents that all the Polytrack in the world can't prevent.

Other than the layoff, this daughter of the late Chester House (cancer) should crush this field, at least based on class. She's a graded open-company stakes winner (the Miss Grillo in 2006) and returns to face state-bred NW2X company for trainer William Badgett Jr. This is another barn that looks like it's set to have some winners after a slow start to the year. He had a 9-1 winner in Kettlecranberry on 4/24, and missed by a neck with Api Mokhat at 12-1 last week. Cagey Girl (6-1) has some good gate speed and could get a jump from the outside and complete the exacta. I can forgive her last two, one on dirt, and one on a soft turf; and so does Desormeaux, who rode her in the latter, as well as in her prior, a five length win with a co-field high Beyer of 86.

- In the third, Wafi City (2-1) tries to bounce back after a disappointing effort in the Excelsior, in which the son of E Dubai faded after chasing loose on the lead Temporary Saint. That race followed his 109 freakout on the inner track at the Big A. Come to think of it, it seems that his best races have come on that oval, and he's 0 for 1 at Belmont. Dr. V's Magic, Shuffling Madness, and Deputy Indy have all shown an affinity for the track, but I'll pass here.

- The feature is the Gaviola Stakes for 3 yo fillies on the grass, and I Lost My Choo is the 9-5 ML favorite for Phil Serpe. She had a three race winning streak snapped when she ran third, missing by just a neck, in the G2 Appalachian at Keeneland. This daughter of Western Expression, inbred to Ribot, Buckpasser, and Majestic Prince, was taken out of her deep closing style by a slow pace. Prado really had to fight her to keep her settled, and perhaps that cost her late as she ran third, beaten by a head and a nose.

Namaste's Wish (4-1) comes out of the same race, for Bill Mott. This full sister, by Pulpit, to Cigar Mile winner Purge, won a strong edition of the Miss Grillo last fall, beating two subsequent stakes winners. She can then be excused for a 5th on the soft wet course at Monmouth on the Friday before the BC - yet to be called Filly Friday - in the Epitome, a very strong race which included Sea Chanter, Bsharpsonata, Grace and Power, and Life Is Sweet. That was her last effort before the Appalachian, in which she hung late and finished 5th, two lengths behind Serpe's filly. She was very wide on the first turn however, and made a strong three wide move on the final one before trying to close into a fast final quarter of 23 flat. According to Trakus, Namaste's Wish conceded 37 feet to I Lost My Choo, who got the inside trip stalking the slow pace from the rail. There's enough pace in this race for both of these closers; but Mott's filly seems capable of moving forward and turning the tables with a better trip. Wouldn't leave the other one out of my multi-race bets though.

- Three winners for Barclay Tagg on Wednesday.


Anonymous said...

mamaluke says belmont notes quick picks hunch bets are all the same crap. Why don't you stick to all the dd that you do which I feel is pretty good. But, your picks or whatever you call them are from HUNGER

Anonymous said...

hey bozo, leave the guy alone his picks have been good