RSS Feed for this Blog

Monday, May 26, 2008

Belmont Today

- In the 9th today, Solid Strike (7-2) stretches out in distance for Contessa. He dropped this state-bred stakes-placed (on the dirt) gelding in for 35k off an eight month layoff in April. After that front-running grass win, in which he finished strongly with a final quarter of 23 3/5, Contessa moved him up to today's class. At 20-1, he led all the way through testing early fractions, and battled on grimly in a narrow loss to Mor Chances, an improving Linda Rice turfer. He earned a career and field high Beyer of 84. Since that race, Solid Strike shipped up to Saratoga, where he drilled a bullet half mile (of 21) on the training track. Whether that was a workout with a demonstrative purpose, or one which prompted a change of plans, he's an intriguing entry here despite a stretch-out in distance which would not appear to help his cause. Extra Zip starts just inside and looms the main early threat moving up in class off a pace-aided win. Channing Hill jumps off however for Grasberg, also moving up after he overcame a bad post to win at 4-5.

In the 4th, Rice has Barbara'sluckystar, a first time starter. I don't like making "official" picks of debut runners, as they're always dependent on the tote board check and the physical inspection at least if I'm there, as I will be today. This barn got off to a fine start at Belmont with a record of 15-4-1-2, and does well with first-time starters in these dashes - four for 12 here last year. Three of those were NY-breds, and this is a local son of More Than Ready, 15% with first-timers on the turf. She also comes off a work upstate, and could have a ahot in a race in which two of the main contenders, Justinline and Fiona Freud, have had ample chances to graduate.

Don't know who I like in the Met Mile, though it's likely not Commentator. And I actually won't even still be there for the race, as we're celebrating my daughter's 16th with a Memorial Day BBQ in the backyard. Never a rest for the Head Chef. I'm gonna do a lot to help though before I leave. Hope all of you are having a nice - and safe - holiday, and best of luck if you make it to the windows.


Anonymous said...

JoePesci says

Re: don't know who I like in the Met Mile,though its likely not Commentator.

Commentator is the fastest horse going in and I do like him to get the win spot. I'm all over him.

exacta: 8-1 8-4 8-5 8 to win

by the way this is only my opinion. Not a so-called hunch bet

Anonymous said...

hey Joe you didn't win but,you get the "nice try" award. Thats one of Alan's special awards. If I'm Zito I would be all over the jock for burning up the track with those fractions coming out of the gate for a mile race. Horrible judgement for one of the best jocks in the country.

Anonymous said...

JoePesci says

Nope I didn't get the nice try award or any award. I gave out my opinion on a play and it didn't hit. I make no excuses as someone else might do. I was going to reverse in my exactas but at 6/5 i wanted to play strong on top and take my chances. Lets get something clear anonymous there are no payoffs for a nice try. Remember that now and always. all the best to you and your plays.

Anonymous said...

I singled Divine Park in the P6, unfortunately my other single Grasberg fell just short costing me a big payoff in a sequence with no winning favorites.

Commentator ran huge, but he knows no other way to run than in front, can not criticize the jock, cant teach an old dog new tricks.

Anonymous said...

Alan ok its time to stop making picks, you are just terrible at it.

Anonymous said...

What's up with Contessa these days? Business bad? One of those small time vanity partnerships out of all places Penn National is soliciting limited liability (the only thing limited is any chance of making back your $$)partners for a $30K claimer to be trained by GC.

Anonymous said...

There is simply NO excuse for ever playing a cold exacta. You can dutch it. For example, play it $100 one way and $20 or even $10 the other way, depending on the payoffs.

But seeing your two horses come in in reverse order and getting nothing for it is just plain stupid.

In the example at hand, if you played it $100 & $20 you would have made $30 instead of losing $100. Not to mention that IMO Divine Park was the better horse anyway and should have been the favorite.

Anonymous said...

I disagree with the last poster. There is no rule that says you have to hedge on straight exacta bets, especially when you are dealing with chalk. That's called pussy horseplaying in my book.

steve in nc said...

OK, call me stupid too (you won't be the first).

But mostly I play cold punches unless I can find two really long combos I like. I clocked myself for two years' worth of playing and found that I do best playing at the most 2 combos in exactas and DDs.

Cashing often is not my goal -- higher ROI is.

Joe Pesci -- What I don't get is playing a 6-5 chalk on top of three other horses in an exacta (unless it's a 20 hourse field and your under plays are total bombs). If it came in Commentator over Divine Park what would you have made, even money?

Unless you're a whale and make your money off the rebate, I suspect you lose money overall on races where you love 6-5 shots. Try keeping track of yourself. When i did that and saw my own bottom line broken down by odds of my top picks, it convinced me to sit out most races where I like heavy chalk, and instead focus on looking for 6-5 shots to beat.

Anonymous said...

Contessa will train for anyone, anytime, as long as they pay the bills.

Anonymous said...

steve, just read pesci's post, agree there is no way to make money keying 6-5 shots over three other horses.

Better off just betting the money to win.

I keyed DP and Commentator over three long shots in the TRI's, and cashed for a small profit. If Commy held on would have likely just broken even.