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Friday, May 02, 2008

Oaks Day

- 5:50 PM - It's Proud Spell, and we saw why Larry Jones has so much faith in 20 year old Gabriel Saez. He was as cool as can be, getting her into good position, just two wide, after breaking from the eight post. He sat chilly behind Bsharpsonata, kept his filly in the clear just a path outside, eased her up on the turn and took charge in the stretch. I think that he hopes he has a similar trip with Eight Belles tomorrow. I bet exactas with her and Pure Clan, mostly with Proud Spell on top. Pure Clan ran a strange race. It looked like she was making a move on the turn, but she suddenly stopped and started to drop back. Then she came on late for third. Little Belle was second, and ugh, why didn't I use her? Because Thoro-Graph didn't like her? I can't believe the triple paid $239.20, wow.

- 5:33 PM - Proud Spell and Pure Clan are the two fastest fillies in the race in my view. They're both 7-2. Jerry Bailey notes that Gabriel Saez only has three sets of goggles.

- 5:25 PM - Little Belle has won in the slop. She's made giant strides this year, and worked extremely well for this race; her prior works were on the moderate side. Thoro-Graph says she's improved so much, that she's not likely to improve any more. That's the kind of stuff that makes me not understand.

- 5:19 PM - Goldberg likes the Country Star-Proud Spell-Bsharpsonata exacta box. It's pouring again, we're told.

- 5:10 PM - If I like Eight Belles, I guess I also have to like Pure Clan here. She faced the same pace scenario that Eight Belles did in the Fantasy, and finished only 1 1/4 behind her.

- 5:05 - Good point by Randy Moss when he said that Larry Jones must be comfortable with his decision on Eight Belles, figuring that the track should be in better shape tomorrow, when it's supposed to rain.

Proud Spell seems to have the classic bounceback pattern, at least based on Beyers. Two big Beyers off a layoff, followed by a bounce in the Ashland. Jeanine Edwards said that Jones said that Proud Spell is sitting on a big one.

- 4:57 PM - 48 minutes until the Oaks. Still working on the race, which, to be perfectly honest, I barely even looked at until today. I don't like Country Star, she's a complete throwout in my opinion. I don't like when three year old fillies come back flat like that in their seasonal debut.

- 4:50 PM - Wow, Garrett Gomez got Tizdejavu home after a front running trip; first time on the grass, he paid 21-1. "It's really soft," Gomez told Bailey of the grass course. First time grass, but he ran a career best race over the Poly at Keeneland in his last. He's by Tiznow, out of a Dixie Brass mare;

- 4:33 PM - The Hennegan Brothers were on with Kenny Mayne to promote their movie and try to sell some DVD's.

I had Boss Lafitte in the Transylvania on the Poly at Keeneland, and she's 5-1 from the 10 post for the Crown Royal American Turf. We know that reader Harl likes Nistle's Crunch; he was well-bet in his turf debut last month. Prussian scratched.

Now a report on Chelokee from Jeanine Edwards - "Cautiously optimistic news," she said. They were able to adjust a dislocated bone in the ankle, and she said the horse was standing. Hoping to be able to operate in a day or two.

4:25 PM - Haskin only picked six horses this year - three to bet to win, and three more with which to box triples. Denis of Cork, Court Vision, and Monba get the nod, along with Tale of Ekati, Z Fortune, and Colonel John.

- 4:17 PM - Bailey said that Desormeaux told him two weeks ago that he'd pick the 20post if it were up to him. He said, according to Bailey, that he could be five wide going into the first turn, and it still wouldn't matter.

- 4:07 - Dominguez is banged up, but has no mounts for the rest of the day. He's scheduled to ride Monba tomorrow.

- 4:05 PM - Dr. Larry Bramlage is on, and that is always bad. He said it's similar to Barbaro's injury - the canon bone in the ankle. He was bandaged and put on the ambulance. Jeanine Edwards asked if sloppy tracks cause more injuries, and while he conceded that it "sure seems like that," he said that statistical studies show no significance difference between fast and slop.

- 4:00 PM - Chelokee apparently broke down. Dominguez fell off, and he looks to be fine. "He looks to be OK...a lot better than Chelokee," Bailey said. They wouldn't even show the horse on camera, just cutting to commercial. Frankel took the race with Giant Gizmo.

- 3:44 PM - I don't really like Wanderin Boy here...I know, he won this race off a layoff in the slop last year. But he's got Jonesboro to contend with, and the race seems to set up for Chelokee; if he can handle the slop in his first try there. Maybe Prom Shoes as a longshot for exotics. Goldberg likes Chelokee over the two speeds.

- 3:35 PM - Jeanine Edwards said that the stewards are monitoring some lightning in the area; and that the track super is concerned that a lot of water seeped into the track before they were able to seal it properly. It's still pouring.

Wanderin Boy and Chelokee are vying for favoritism in the Alysheba. The former is making his first start since the BC Dirt Mile, so the track conditions should be familiar. Kenny Mayne just told some attractive young woman to 'shut up.'

- 3:20 PM - Man, it is freaking pouring. Bailey said that jockeys only need a couple pair of goggles in weather like this because the rain itself wipes the goggles clean.

Ginger Punch took a little leap over a puddle in the stretch, but she came bounding home to win the Louisville. In the useless stat department, Tessitore says, and this is a direct quote: "Zee Zee is the fifth Ladies Breeders' Cup winner to take the Louisville Handicap." I bet he's been practicing that.

- 3:12 PM - Zee Zee goes wire to wire in the Edgewood on the grass; and Hank Goldberg had 50 to win, and a $10 exacta box. It's the sixth time, from ten starters, that Mott has won the race we're told by Randy Moss. "A good warm up for Big Brown," Jerry Bailey tells Desormeaux.

Jeanine Edwards is going to take us to one of the most secret places in Louisville, we're told. Maybe Obama's campaign headquarters?

- 3:02 PM - "What a way to start Derby weekend," says Joe Tessitore on ESPN2. The track is a mess. Polytrack anyone?

- 2:50 PM - TVG has Belmont and some races from Ireland, and that's it. Man, they've just got nothing going on. I thought someone wrote here that they were going to take Freehold?

Meanwhile, it's been raining in Louisville, and the Weather Channel has a special statement calling for "numerous" showers and thunderstorms in Louisville today. PEOPLE ATTENDING OUTDOOR EVENTS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN ON ALERT AND TAKE COVER IF POSSIBLE AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH.

Michael reports from the scene that the track is sloppy, the turf yielding, yuck. Think I'm going to take a look at the two races still on the grass at Belmont..

8 Comments:

jk said...

The track got sloppy in a hurry. I hope it does not screw up my p4 ticket, alive after leg 1 with Zee Zee.

Race 8: 2,5,6

Race 9: 1,3,9

Race 10: 3,6,8,11

Harl said...

This game just might kill Michael Matz. Wow.

jk said...

So much for the Pick 4. I'll blame it on the rain.

My Derby pick is Monba. He has class and breeding.

I'm using Big Brown, Z Humor, Pyro, Eight Belles, Court Vision and Adriano in the tri's.

Good luck to all.

Anonymous said...

Played decent sized Oak/Derby DD keying Proud Spell with Pryo and Monba.

Of course I can not find the will pays as of this comment but suspect I am live for a BIG payout if Monba scores.

Good to see Dominquez was ok, besides being worried about he and Chelokee, one of my faves, I was immediately trying to figure out who Todd would find to ride if Ramon could not make it.

Thankfully not an issue, but was actually wondering if he would reach out for Bailey.

Harl said...

Right now, I am leaning towards keying EINSTIEN tomorrow in the pick four and using BIG BROWN, PYRO, and Z FORTUNE on my primary tickets with COLONEL JOHN as my 'B' horse and backup tickets to SMOOTH AIR, MONBA, and GAYEGO. I don't really see any other runners that really have a shot at this race. Hell, and some of them that I'm using I'm not sure if they really have a shot.

I'll use DREAMING OF ANNA prominently in the opening leg and spread around in the 2nd leg. I haven't finalized anything, but it looks like this might take a $200 investment to have a real shot at the Pick 4.

HYSTERICALLADY is more than a little interesting, as well. Won the same race last year and maybe she enjoys a Churchill racing strip after a day of rain. Hopefully, they can get the track in good shape for tomorrow.

I am sitting in an airport in Northwest Arkansas right now, waiting on a delayed flight. I have just over 12 hours to make it to Louisville.

Anonymous said...

Good luck Harl, tough weather.

Harl said...

Well, at least I got out of Arkansas. I'm in Dallas and now on a direct flight to Louisville instead of my hometown of Indianapolis. Not sure where I am going to stay tonight, though (assuming we get out of here tonight).

Anonymous said...

harl, you can sleep in the tack room with Dutrow, hiding from his bookies.