Derby Notes - May 1

- It's May, so we must be getting really close. Besides Big Brown (3-1), Colonel John (4-1), and Pyro (6-1), every other horse is at least 15-1 in the morning line. I don't think that the Derby is bet that way these days, and that we'll see drastically different prices come Saturday. I think (hope) Pyro will be higher, and that horses such as Eight Belles, Denis of Cork, and Gayego could be significantly lower than what they're listed at now.

Continuing my thinking aloud about those I consider to be contenders:

Gayego will break just inside of Big Brown. Although he too has early speed, he's a stalker, and will run the risk of getting caught wide. Gayego has gotten some rave reviews about his appearance and his workout in the mud on Saturday. However, Mike Welsch opined on Wednesday that he did not look as smooth during his routine gallop as he did after first arriving here last week. James Scully confirmed: I didn't like the way he moved during Wednesday's gallop.

Gayego has the look of a horse ready to move forward off a lifetime best Beyer in the Arkansas Derby. His past performance lines exude improvement and class. But I am queasy over his pedigree - a son of Gilded Time, a sire with an average winning distance of less than 6 1/2 furlongs. He has a dosage index of 4.33, and I still have a bit of a mental block about that. Broodmare sire Lost Code was a solid distance runner, he does have inbreeding to Ribot and distance influences such as Arts and Letters. But I didn't like the way he steadily slowed in the Arkansas Derby, with splits of 22.98, 23.73, 24.39, and 25.86 before coming home in 12.68. I don't really see myself using him on top, but definitely in the exotics.

- Colonel John drew fine and starts from the ten post. His workout on Sunday seems to have dispelled at least some doubt about his ability to handle the dirt, and maybe Gayego's success has helped in that regard too. Welsch reports that he's seemingly none the worse for wear from his five furlongs in 57 4/5. I've written about how much I loved his Santa Anita Derby; his quick acceleration will serve him well as he's trying to work his way through and around horses. As useful a race it was in terms of conditioning and experience, it didn't seem too stressful at all; add in the fact he's been training exclusively on synthetics, I think this horse is as fit and fresh as can be.

He's sitting on a huge race I believe. This is the only horse in the field to show a sub-12 second final eighth in a prep....and he's done it in each of his last two races. We've discussed how his pedigree, by the two-time Classic winner Tiznow out of a mare by champion older horse Turkoman, seems suitable for the distance. (He's from the same distaff family as Imperialism, third in 2004.) The only knock here is price. Colonel John's style means he'll need racing luck, and I'm not prepared to accept 4-1, his morning line, this, or most any other year (at times to my detriment). But he'll certainly be prominent on my exotic tickets at the very least.