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Friday, February 13, 2009

Aqueduct Notes

The winds that caused NYRA to cancel on Thursday are still howling as I write this approaching midnight. Three reported deaths and a blazing inferno right near by us. Supposed to let up somewhat but not completely tomorrow, so we'll see.

Just in case, in the 7th, Casino Kay (5-2) drops in for a 30K tag for Ken Ramsey and trainer Michael Maker. Ramsey has plainly been strictly a seller, and not a buyer during his stable's stay this winter; I don't recall him claiming a single horse, am I wrong? And though they've had a few winners of late, this stable continues to burn chalkplayers' money at an alarming rate. Ramsey claimed this one for 50K from Levine at Saratoga when he was in buying mode. She's since run some decent races against better than this, but she doesn't have much speed, and figures to get overbet, so let's take a stand against.

Ace of Hearts (12-1), out of action since April, returns for trainer Carlos Martin. This barn has been in the money its last five off a 180+ day layoff, the last two of those wins. Martin is also 22% first off a trainer switch. This one won off by six for Jimmy Jerkens off a shorter layoff two races back. A couple of very nice drills, and I like the fact that she's placed confidently here. Deep Mystery (5-1) has a field-high five career wins, racing out of town, and is eligible for this otherwise N3L because she's a four year old. Nice speed and always gives an honest effort. But does he perhaps prefer shorter? Huge Party (7-2) faded badly to last in December when 7-2 against far better in her first race since March. Could be lone speed if in the mood.


steve in nc said...

Good race to spotlight. I'll join you in trying to beat chalk here, but I am more scared of her than you are. On Sheets, she finally got past her 2YO best her first race this year, and ran very close to that last out. She could move up again. But it took her a long time to get back to that 2YO top, so she may also go off for awhile. I feel better going against her because Dominguez jumps off.

I see what you're saying on Ace of Hearts, but she's 5 so I'm not expecting a big new life best, and all her previous #s are too slow. Maybe underneath in exotics.

Whether on Sheets or Beyers, two fillies here have outstanding back #s: Solicit & Deep Mystery. DM is 3rd off the layoff so she could pop. Solicit ran her two big #s with no pattern build-up on Sheets. She's been gradually improving on Sheets, why not now?

5-1 on either of them would tempt me. I'll use both in the multis.

Alan Mann said...

Tough race. Don't disagree about the favorite's chances, but this barn's horses have been grossly overbet all meeting. Y'all do understand that these picks are always subject to unforeseen developments on the tote board!

Yeah, Solicit is certainly worth mentioning too....anything from the Asmussen barn bears watching there. And I did mention Deep Mystery...but I am concerned about her ability to go much beyond 5 1/2 furlongs