Hunch bets for Wednesday, Feb 18:
It's Show Time 1st at Beulah- Good point here, comparing Smarty Jones' Southwest effort with that of Old Fashioned. And as a couple of readers pointed out, like Smarty, his slow final quarter in the race can be attributed to the quick early fractions that he chased. And that's all true. However, I'm not looking for excuses this time of year, but rather, for things that make a horse stand out above the rest; like for example, the gritty, wide rally by Pioneerof The Nile. If Old Fashioned chased that pace and came home in 25 flat with Ramon doing a jig on top, then I could start to get excited.
Wegottagetalong 6th at Turf Paradise
Ain't A Saint 9th at Beulah
Imisswhat'sisname 7th at Beulah
True Deception 1st at Turf Paradise
Don't get me wrong, this is an impressive colt who, as pointed out by readers, did exactly what he had to do in his first start back. The 93 Beyer that he earned is just fine. And his running style will naturally make him less subject to adversity than others. But I'm leaning towards the skeptic side for the time being. For one thing, this is the horse most people have liked since last winter, and it's just my nature to be oppositional (or, as the Head Chef might point out, obnoxious). Secondly, I'm an old dosage guy, set in my ways despite the system's obvious flaws, and his 5.22 number sows doubts that he'll get the distance come May.
OK, it's our last day in Florida, so gotta soak up some rays. See ya later.
5 Comments:
Turf Paradise and Beulah
I must admit you have chosen the best of the best to post hunch bets.
You are the WORST
Gulfstream - Race 8
#5 Alma d'Oro (4/1 ml)
This colt is one of many who improved dramatically on the barn-switch to Richard Dutrow. Not only did he win by 5 lengths last time out (earning a 90 Beyer), but it was an incredible 16 lengths from the second-place horse back to the rest of the field. He also looks to have a pace advantage here, as there doesn't appear to be much speed in the race to challenge him early. Should offer a square price also, with most of the attention being directed at the much-hyped Pletcher colt Dunkirk. Note that Garrett Gomez has flown all the way in from California to ride Dunkirk here (in a simple allowance race, no less) which says a lot. But what says even more, at least to me, is that jockey Edgar Prado (who rode Dunkirk last time out) "opted to keep his regular seat on Alma d'Oro" according to DRF's Gulfstream correspondent Mike Welsch. Expecting a good run here, and i guess so is Prado.
DP: I wonder whether Welsch was right about Prado, because Velazquez and Gomez both have pull with Pletcher that Prado doesn't have.
dunkirk is the real deal.
Hard to say for certain. It's true that Prado isn't Pletcher's go-to guy, but he did ride Dunkirk to his debut win, and having him ride back seems a helluva lot easier than flying a jock in from California.
In any case, if you think this colt was being hyped before, it'll be ten times worse now. Intriguing prospect, yes, but keep inond he still has zero graded earnings. It's also been a VERY long time since any horse who debuted as a 3yo won the Derby.
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