Hunch bets for Wednesday, Feb 18:
It's Show Time 1st at Beulah- Good point here, comparing Smarty Jones' Southwest effort with that of Old Fashioned. And as a couple of readers pointed out, like Smarty, his slow final quarter in the race can be attributed to the quick early fractions that he chased. And that's all true. However, I'm not looking for excuses this time of year, but rather, for things that make a horse stand out above the rest; like for example, the gritty, wide rally by Pioneerof The Nile. If Old Fashioned chased that pace and came home in 25 flat with Ramon doing a jig on top, then I could start to get excited.
Wegottagetalong 6th at Turf Paradise
Ain't A Saint 9th at Beulah
Imisswhat'sisname 7th at Beulah
True Deception 1st at Turf Paradise
Don't get me wrong, this is an impressive colt who, as pointed out by readers, did exactly what he had to do in his first start back. The 93 Beyer that he earned is just fine. And his running style will naturally make him less subject to adversity than others. But I'm leaning towards the skeptic side for the time being. For one thing, this is the horse most people have liked since last winter, and it's just my nature to be oppositional (or, as the Head Chef might point out, obnoxious). Secondly, I'm an old dosage guy, set in my ways despite the system's obvious flaws, and his 5.22 number sows doubts that he'll get the distance come May.
OK, it's our last day in Florida, so gotta soak up some rays. See ya later.