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Friday, February 20, 2009

Rare Rap Treat

Rap Tale is 5-1 morning line, 4th choice in the Rare Treat Handicap on Saturday at the Big A (third race). I've been willing to listen to those who have criticized Kasey K for placing her unrealistically, even as she's earned more than $130,000 for the stable (despite failing to Beyer over 78). In fact, I've expressed a preference myself for the softer spots which trainer Bruce Brown has deftly found. But not this time. We'd have to be idiots to not run her in this spot. She's out of conditions, blossoming, and ready to roll, as evidenced by a bullet five furlong work that has Brown raving.

Whatsmore, Ramon is back up, she drew the rail and, with Successful Sarah instead opting for a starter allowance race today, the possible lone speed. Weathered (9-5) is a legit 1-2 favorite in my view. But she seems to prefer to stalk (unless Luzzi decides to get even for being taken off Rap Tale). So I'm hoping that it well be a similar scenario to the Ladies Handicap, in which Rap Tale led into the stretch and was unfortunate to get nipped out of the show spot and the elusive black type. This is an eighth mile shorter, and, while a couple of the others besides Weathered may be a bit faster on paper, Rap Tale is certainly not outclassed by any of those, and we still believe that her best is yet to come.

- A longtime reader is begging me to mention Rail Trip, so here we go. Trainer Ron Ellis is being patient with this undefeated (3 for 3) four-year old son of Jump Start, entered in the second at Santa Anita today, allowing him to climb through allowance conditions before moving on to stakes. He's won each of his prior three starts in ridiculously easy fashion, with Beyers of 102, 101, and 99. Ellis is not exactly babying him in terms of starts however; he last raced three weeks ago, and made his debut on November 7. He's out of a Carson City mare, which probably contributes to his speed-oriented dosage index of 5.18....though the stretch out to two turns was no impediment last time out.

5 Comments:

Steve Zorn said...

Good luck on Saturday, Alan. If you're going to take a shot at stakes company, now's the time to do it; the races just get harder as we get into the spring and summer.And, if she can finish in the money, it's a lot of fun. I know we (Castle Village Farm) were all absolutely delighted with two third-place finishes in stakes for Just Zip It last year. (Another filly who ran through her conditions (NY-bred) and picked up $140,000 without breaking out of the low- to mid-80s in Beyer numbers. 'Tis pity the black type doesn't add as much to value in this market as it would have a couple of years ago.

DC said...

Rail Trip now 4-for-4 after another easy win. There's talk he may be wheeled back in the Santa Anita Handicap in a couple of weeks. The Dubai World Cup has also been mentioned as a possible target.

While the jury is still out with regard to his preferred distance, there are no questions about his talent. He's a stone-cold freak. If he can't get 1 1/4 miles, Ellis can always point him at the Breeders Cup Sprint. Or perhaps the Dirt Mile. How many horses can be considered a solid threat for ALL those races right now? He's a unique individual, that's for sure.

Amateurcapper said...

Good luck.

Anonymous said...

Rap Tale as I've said has #'s that didn't belong in this race. When will you learn Alan where and when to run this horse. uhhh shucks not even 4th money as I know you would of mooned the world if she ran 4th.

Keep running her and you will not be running her come next year thats for sure.Yea she's working great and all the other nonsense u come up with. She likes philly park then keep her where she likes it. But, you could run her in Penn next time. You might get 3rd place money up there eh....

Anonymous said...

"Rare Rap Treat"


what an IDIOT