In the second at Aqueduct today, Bubba Gum (5-2) doubles in price off the claim for trainer Joe Imperio after wiring 10K company with ease. This barn is two for 47 (both courtesy of Holly Time) since the Big A opened last fall. He's been in the mix of late though with with a record of 10-2-2-3 (though one of those thirds was Charming Officer at 3-5). And he's been quite close moving them up off claims - One of the Best just missed at 10-1 going from 14K to 20K on Feb 7; Chief Export was a close second at 7-1 going from 20K to 30K on Feb 14. This horse won't be 7-1, that's for sure. He didn't face much in his last and I'd consider betting against him except that he looks like he could be long gone as lone speed.
When I wrote recently about picking losers, a reader noted:
There are many ways to play the game, and I do the opposite.Nothing is absolute of course, and I will sometimes play a race the latter way myself. Don't know if Bubba Gum will be underlaid or not, but this could be one of those instances. El Chile Dog (8-1) cut back in distance when moved up confidently off the claim by Contessa despite getting trounced when he took him from Jacobson. Far back as usual, he closed very well for third despite a wide trip that became even wider when he was carried out further in deep stretch. Winner Chief Export raced well against better in his next as noted above; second place finisher Fleet Valid set the pace against 35K optional claimers and weakened for third. I'll look for El Chile Dog to pick up the pieces and complete the exacta.
I look for legitimate favorites that are not underlays, and either bet them straight or try to find value by hooking up with another horse in straight EX or DD.