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Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Notes - Feb 11

State-bred claimers for winners at the Big A on Wednesday; a reader wrote in to suggest that this is an all-time first for NYRA. I can't recall having seen them before. The two races, both restricted to three-year olds, each drew large fields, so you can be sure to see more of the same. NYRA has pulled out all the stops to keep the racing competitive, including the full dose of low-price state-bred maiden claimers, some of the cheapest runners we've ever seen around here.

Interesting matchup in the 7th, as Lights Off Annie (Freud) (7-5) stretches out to two turns for the first time; a reason in itself to consider a stance against, never mind a big step up in class to open company. Only one of the five horses she crushed in her last who've run back finished in the money (3rd), and that one followed that up with a distant 8th. And then you have Asbeautifulasyou (5-2), a Coolmore-owned daughter of AP Indy who added blinkers and ran off to graduate by 20 lengths at Laurel. But she faces winners for the first time here, and she weakened her only try around two turns. Can't however settle on any alternatives, so I'll just register some cynicism about both and move on.

In the 4th at Gulfstream, Dutrow drops Diamond Isle (8-5) down to a 16K tag three weeks after he ran third by less than two lengths, for 40K. Oh man. I'd identify this as a suspicious drop to bet against had the horse not run for 20K three races back, winning off by three after having run for a 75K optional tag in his prior. Sometimes you just have to go on a hunch in these poker games, and my feeling is that I'm hesitant to oppose. But I also do like second choice Mount Wilton (4-1). Trainer Greg Di Prima moved this one up off a claim, and he was clearly second best at this level, track, and distance, coming home in consecutive 24 3/5 quarters.

In the 9th, Shug tries Treasure Trail (6-1), the AP Indy Pulpit baby sister to Zenyatta, on grass. I imagine that, given her obvious worth as a broodmare, this filly doesn't have many more chances to prove she wants to run before she's sent off to auction and a life of annual pregnancy and childbirth. Doesn't sound like as much fun as the stallions, does it?

3 Comments:

Anonymous said...

FYI: Treasure Trail is by Pulpit.

DiscreetPicks said...

Gulfstream - Race 3

#11 BZ Warrior (5/1 ml)

First-time starter for Todd Pletcher is a half-brother to the incredibly talented debut winner EZ Warrior (who lost his best form after an injury). Also a half to JZ Warrior, who ran third in her Belmont debut last year but won by 10 lengths @ Saratoga in start #2. Worth noting that EZ Warrior was a colt, and so is this one. What really stands out here though is not so much the breeding, but the fact that BZ Warrior has apparently outworked several of the top 3yo's in Pletcher's barn. He appears to have outworked Checklist twice in a row, then later outworked Dunkirk. Most recently he seems to have outworked French Dip, who came out of that drill to win last weekend. Go-to rider Velazquez gets the call, and this one looks very live for Pletcher. I suspect he'll be very well-supported at the windows today, and i'm expecting a big effort.

DiscreetPicks said...

BZ Warrior scores @ $14.40