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Saturday, February 14, 2009

Aqueduct Saturday

In the 7th at the Big A today, once again we're confronted with horses dropping steeply in class. Figuring these out has been one of the keys to success at this meeting, which, despite the best efforts of NYRA, is becoming more and more difficult to stick with. I had to double check to make sure I was looking at the right card today, considering that it's Saturday, and there's no stakes race.

Here's David Jacobson, dropping Morine's Victory (7-2) in for 30K after claiming him for 75K from his last start....in December, 2007. This barn has got to have more expensive busts than any other I know, and by a wide margin. Sure, he has some flashy figs on his lines (one of them in a match race on a sloppy track at Delaware), but what does that mean now? The tote board might give a clue - if he's dead on the board, I'd forget about him; if he's bet, I'd probably stand against anyhoo, so why discuss further? Callmetony (3-1) drops from 60K to 30K for Levine, who is 15 for 48 (31%) dropping horses 50% in claiming price over the last two years. However, the median payoff for these winners is $4.40; and scanning over them on Formulator, the Daily Racing Form's amazing tool which provides all of these stats for us, they seem to predominately be far cheaper horses than Callmetony. This is an 8 year old gelded son of Runaway Groom who was stakes placed just last June, and who hasn't run since Oct 1. Pass.

The Asmussen barn is still smokin', and checks in here with a drop down of its own in First Degree (9-2). This one however looks like an honest placement of a horse who could use some class relief after an allowance win two back pushed him up to a NW3x level that appears over his head. Good form off layoff lines, a couple of nice drills, Ramon aboard, what else can we say? The Vin Man (12-1) has moved up the claiming ladder and the Beyer scale for trainer Randi Persaud since beating cheapies three back. This barn is still struggling, but I like when he places his horses confidently. The Vin Man comes off a career best fig, and has shown some nice late foot that can help him get a share today. Hollywood Left (5-1) appears realistically spotted here, dropping just a notch in claiming price off a win at Philly; and more so since Scott Lake and Mike Repole overpaid for him in December.

- We're a long ways from the Big A today, back down again at my parents' house in Longboat Key, Florida for a long weekend.....with kids in tow. Wow, what a flight last night, not a single cloud the entire way down, and a clear view of the Meadowlands sometime around the 6th race or so. Maybe I saw you there?

4 Comments:

Anonymous said...

Big A Race 3, The Dearly Precious, a very weak five filly field placed outside the P6 in NYRA's never ending quest for a two day carryover, despite it being one of the toughest races on the card to figure.

Perhaps you are getting a tad too much sun? ;-)

Anonymous said...

I'm looking at Tampa Bay right now. Sunny, 71 degrees, 12 races, 4 turf, 3 stks. Saddling area is ringed with people, I can see a picnic table with a cooler on it. I'll guess the crowd over 6k and on track handle probably around 600k with total handle maybe hitting 6 million. So it looks like racing conducted in the correct weather setting with a good mix of races is ok.
RG

alan said...

Not too far from Tampa Bay, but alas, it's not in the cards for me. The Sam F Davis is being televised locally here.

Anonymous said...

Alan
Stay over. They have 5 stakes races Monday at the Ocala Training Center. Starts at 1 PM. Florida breeding has come a long way since Needles just missed the Triple Crown in 1956.
Had someone tell me that the last race was a gift for Teuton and then this morning I get a call that the Allen people like Bankers High Yield's chances. Then on my own with a very powerful magnifying glass I can see maybe Heaven's Reward(beat 2 horses in his last 4 races)putting forth a good effort today at a huge price.
RG