I thought that Oaklawn track announcer Terry Wallace got rather carried away when he exlaimed"On to the Triple Crown" at the end of the Southwest Stakes. Sure, Old Fashioned is obviously a fast horse. But he's yet to demonstrate any of the qualities that horses like Pioneerof The Nile and Friesan Fire did in overcoming trouble and traffic to win their recent races, so hold your horses there.
Larry Jones' colt sat the trip behind Silver City, a horse who'd never traveled beyond 6 1/2 furlongs, and came home in 26.37 seconds after splits of 22.65, 23.69, and 24.79. Having pointed that out however, it was of course his first race of the year, and he did come home in racehorse time in the Remsen last year. Still, I'd say that "On to the Rebel Stakes," the next scheduled start for the son of Unbridled's Song, would have been a more appropriate call.
- Still down in Florida for a couple more days, so a light vacation posting mode continues. I see that Kasey K claimed Meetmeatthechapel from Asmussen, for 20K out of the second at the Big A yesterday; will have to find out if winning a shake was required for that one, exposed after a couple tries in starters allowances. And Rap Tale is nominated for the Rare Treat to be run on Saturday.
RSS Feed for this Blog
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Not So Fast
Posted by Alan Mann at 11:04 AM
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
19 Comments:
alan why would you have to find out about the claim don't you own that stable?
Old Fashioned did overcome a nasty checking incident approaching the first turn in his final Delaware race. And flat miles @ Oaklawn are always slow. 1:37 and change is pretty solid over that layout.
Clearly there's been a ton of hype regarding this horse (7/1 in the Derby futures for a horse with no 3yo starts?), but I don't think you could realistically have expected anything more from him yesterday. Personally, I though the main aspect of his Southwest win was that he was able to take back off the lead. He hadn't done that since his maiden sprint win, so that was encouraging. And he was still able to draw off (however slowly) after laying close to a very fast pace for the distance. I thought he looked pretty solid.
I was impressed with Old Fashioned. He hasn't had to overcome trouble because he has wonderful tactical speed. You can't ask for a much better first effort as a 3yo than that. He had a legit excuse to come home slowish b/c the first quarter was quite rapid. He reminds me a smarty jones. My one caveat for this horse is that if he didn't get back to his debut number, that spells trouble for his development and I'll look to take a shot against him in his next start.
To me, it looked like sprinters who can get a mile, not classic distance horses in this race. Not to impugn Old Fashioned, but he's going to have to change his style a bit to carry that speed over a route. He looked tired in the stretch after those early fractions. Personally, I liked the way the 4th place horse, Flat Out, finished. He was moving best of all at the end.
These speed types are up against it in the Derby except for once a decade when someone gets loose on the lead and wires the field.
His win was workmanlike and he is certainly a nice horse, but he is a big underlay in the future book.
are you kidding??this colt is getting better every time out.4 races and 4 wins..no weaving in the homestretch..rated beautifully..what more can you want?
yea Rap Tale will be a rare treat for all the horses to waltz by her.
Rap Tales #'s are to slow for this field. But, Alan you would be THRILLED if you ran 4th and got the money right.
>>alan why would you have to find out about the claim don't you own that stable?
yeah, i have a small piece, but I'm down in Florida, out of touch with my cellphone turned off!
Old Fashioned. Better than War Pass??? What say you Andy Beyer?
RG
I'm not Andy Beyer, but I don't think there's much question Old Fashioned is better than War Pass. War Pass was a one-dimensional speed type whose Breeders Cup win was aided by a sealed, sloppy surface that was playing like a conveyor belt. Fast horse? Sure, but I don't think he was a legitimate Derby contender at any point.
Conversely, Old Fashioned already owns a number of impressive wins around two turns, and has proven himself capable of laying off the pace, if need be.
Alan,
If the Road to the Roses is a tennis match, OLD FASHIONED held serve quite easily.
As for the lack of a troubled trip, he's got a style that will keep him out of trouble.
An anonymous quote gave a good comparison to SMARTY JONES, who debuted in '04 w/ a Southwest win in 1:37 2/5, chasing fractions of 22 4/5, 45 4/5, 1:11 1/5.
I'm no fan and agree he's the underlay of the group to beat...that's why I tried w/ SILVER CITY. I don't like his unbalanced race, fast early/slow late. However, he can improve off this effort like SMARTY JONES did.
Old Fashioned looked like the Old Afleet Alex, disposing of his rivals in the Preakness and Belmont. He was moved too soon in the Derby that year.
Old Fashioned is a gritty and tenacious runner. He also resembles Hard Spun.
He may not win the Derby, but he will be in the top 3.
The announcer was right, wasn't he? On to the Triple Crown because he has the earnings from winning the most recent stake. No matter what he does in the next outing, he is in to the Derby based on graded earnings.
The Derby's top 10 will be less than six lengths of each other this year. It's going to be a very exciting finish. Hello Broadway, Imperial Council, Captain Candyman, Friesan Fire, Pioner Of The Nile, and Old Fashioned -- they will all be close.
Old Fashioned did what he needed to do, but Rachel Alexandra gave me chills the day before. I don't think they are pointing her for the Derby, and yes, the field she beat was very weak. But she was being wrapped up in the final 1/16 and still came home in 11.94 for a final time a full second faster than Old Fashioned's the following day. Yes, the track appeared to be a little faster on Sunday, but I still think she ran the more impressive race.
If she is able to improve off of this start when she runs in the Fairground Oaks, I sincerely hope her connections give the Ark. Derby or another KD prep vs the boys a long, hard look. I'd love to see her face the males. She has soundly beaten the final times of the male races in her last two starts.
I'm also excited about seeing Dunkirk on Thursday. What a strong allowance race that looks to be!
erm did I say "Fairground Oaks"
I meant "Fair Grounds Oaks"...I wish they let me edit my post.
I also wanted to congratulate you on being part of the Paulick Derby Index! That's very cool. Keep up the good work!
While i do think it's very cool that Alan is a member of the Paulick Derby Index, i have to admit, i was rather disappointed when i saw it.
No love for The Pamplemousse??? C'mon, Alan!!!
Thursday's feature at GP should be named "The Big Brown" since this is essentially the race from which he exploded onto the scene.
Nice potential in this group, and a chance to get a true read on Old Fashioned to since American Dance, a colt he destroyed in the Remsen returns in this spot.
I love Warrior's Reward, first time lasix for Wilkes/Borel, playing exacta with American Dance.
After this weekend, I like an Evita, Rachel and Stardom Bound trifecta in the Derby to simultaneously drive PETA and Moody Jolley types mad.
There's no mystery as to why he came home fast in the Remsen and not the Southwest. Look at the discrepancy in the six furlong splits.
Good point, I thought the same thing when I heard Wallace make the call - talk about hyperbole.
Post a Comment