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Friday, November 03, 2006

Selections and Second Thoughts Pt. 1

- It's been a few days since I started analyzing the races, and though I haven't made any major changes, some of my opinions have evolved, especially in the four races I wrote about for the Breeders Cup Special coming out later tonight.

So I'll go through the races, do a top three selections thing, and express some second and third 17th thoughts.

Juvenile Fillies

Quick Little Miss
Cash Included
I don't really have a strong opinion in this race. Cash Included, I think, will be a solid favorite, but not one that I want to go down with in the first race. So I'll make my wild longshot stab right off the bat. I liked her more seriously before the posts were drawn, and the 13 post definitely hurts. She has seven lengths to make up on Cash Included, but she lost tons of ground last time and closed well. She had a nice work with a strong gallop out the other day. Will probably be caught wide again, but at 30-1 seems worth a shot. As for Satulagi? I dunno, just threw her in; she's bred well to handle dirt.

Scat Daddy
Great Hunter
Street Sense
Street Sense, 20-1 morning line, is one that I'm taking a closer look at. He ran 48.5 feet more than Circular Quay in the Breeders Futurity and lost by a nose. So if Circular Quay is 5-2 as he is in the morning line, don't you just have to like him at 20-1?

I got a glowing report from a knowledgeable observer on the scene on Great Hunter. I'd kinda like to switch and put him on top, but I picked Scat Daddy in the Special. I will have him on top of my tickets in some manner for sure. This is a tough race, and there are other horses I like, including Principle Secret and King of the Roxy. Circular Quay is definitely a win threat, but I think he'll be egregiously overbet, in which case he's worth betting against in a field of this depth.

F&M Turf
Ouija Board
Wait A While
Film Maker
I'll be rooting for Ouija Board; it will be a thrill to watch one of the best horses in the world in action; and one who has traveled all over to meet the biggest challenges the sport can offer. But Wait A While has been a phenom, and a win by this three-year old would be electrifying. I know some have expressed concern over her ability to get the distance, but I don't know about that given the way she's run at ten furlongs. I'll use her in my Pick 3's.

Henny Hughes
Thor's Echo
Siren Lure
I've moved Thor's Echo up. I know the sheets guys are expecting him to bounce off his big number chasing Bordonaro in the Ancient Title. But he had a lot of time off after running second at Dubai, and this is his third start of the form cycle. He might be able to suck along the rail, and could provide some value with Henny on top. As for Bordonaro, I'm not going to use him; Bill Spawr seemed hesitant after the Ancient Title, saying that the horse preferred more time off. Having said that, he's never lost in three tries when running back with four weeks off. But that's what the man said, and that's the way he's campaigned him this year. This is a horse I'm clearly looking for excuses to exclude.

I'll be back soon with the final four races.


Anonymous said...

Now its not Philly Park with the worst rail bias in the country, but the rail at CD frequently comes up dead. I'll be steering clear of rail horses tomorrow. Especially closers with little early foot, the longer they are on it the more tired they get. I noticed yesterday, the experienced riders were out in the 3 lane even with horses that were well clear on the lead. Watch the early races see where the lead horses are on the race track. Nick

Anonymous said...

Spawr also said that he was looking for reasons not to run Bordonaro, because it was gonna cost quite a bit of money to supplement him. But he was doing so well after his Ancient Title effort that they felt they had to do it. Tough, tough race, but Bordonaro is not a horse to be taken lightly. Quite the opposite, he's probably the toughest, most battle-hardened horse in the race. Not to mention the fastest. Henny Hughes may get to him, but it won't be easy. That much i know.

Anonymous said...

Dirt races seemed to be playing fair today at CD.

Street Sense will be a price because no one trusts his dirt form. My feeling is the two that beat him last time did so despite SS moving up on the artificail surface.

Really does not matter to me in any case, I am tossing that race completely as it's runners usually perform poorly at CD.

Good luck to all, there should be plenty of healthy payoffs.