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Tuesday, May 02, 2006

Breeders Cup Still Falls Short

- Breeders’ Cup officials announced an increase in the total purses to $20 million. That’s up from $14 million, but still a million short of Dubai for the richest single day in the sport. If they increased the purses that much – a 43% increase – wouldn’t you think they could scrape up another million or two to match Dubai? Seems kinda like Barry Bonds getting to 754 homers and then going, “ah, that’s enough.” The Classic will now be worth $5 million (as opposed to $6 million the World Cup.)

- Steppenwolfer’s trainer Dan Pietz is not exactly objective on the subject, but he saw what I did watching a replay of Brother Derek’s race in the Santa Catalina. "He rated in that race, but he didn't relax….If you're going to go 1 1/4 miles, you can't pull the first [six furlongs] and expect to be there at the end.” [Thoroughbred Times]

- Jerry Klein of Fox Sports.com:

In fact, the total amount bet on the Derby — last year it was over $100,000,000 — is only exceeded by the number of words written and spoken before the race by supposed experts that generally leave everyone trying to decipher a 20-horse field as confused as ever.
You can count me amongst them. (The confused, not the supposed experts.)

One lucky bettor who cut through the confusion and hit the triple with a $230 investment last year parlayed his winnings into a spot in the owner’s box on Saturday. St. Louis dentist Ray Nikodem is part of the West Point Thoroughbreds ownership group in Flashy Bull.
Nikodem was one of three investors paying $38,000, or 10 percent, of Flashy Bull's $380,000 syndicated purchase price last spring. There are 17 owners overall in a group with Pennsylvania-based West Point Thoroughbreds, Inc. [Belleville News Democrat]
As you may know, most partnerships will mark their horses up from their purchase price before syndicating them to partners. (A few, including my Castle Village, do not, and take a percentage of earnings instead.) Those markups can vary, and in the case of Flashy Bull, it looks like a substantial one. The colt was purchased as a two-year old at Ocala last February for $205,000. That’s a markup of some 85%. Now, that price includes, according to their website, all training expenses and mortality insurance (generally 5% of his sale price) through last year. But even if that comes out to $50,000, which seems on the high side if anything, that’s still over 60%. But hey, did you think West Point pays for all those advertisements strictly by making money with its racehorses?

In fact, Flashy Bull is a money-loser thus far, having earned just under $160,000. That could change big-time in a little over two minutes on Saturday, though that’s extremely unlikely in my opinion. He looks to me like just another horse that needs to sit just off the pace, and an outclassed one, at that; his lifetime high Beyer is 94. Do you really expect him to improve on that? If you buy the "thumps" excuse for his Florida Derby, he hasn't had a meaningful race since March 6. But I’m sure West Point will do just fine for itself. Flashy Bull is the first thing you see on their website, and their founder Terry Finley comes right out on his website and says: Of course we are in the midst of our selling season so we think (and hope) getting to the big dance will help our cause.. Indeed, their cause of selling horses to the public at profits of 60% certainly seems to come before what might be best for Flashy Bull.

6 Comments:

Anonymous said...

Hey Alan,
Congratulations for the gig you scored w/Barrons. I've read LATG for a year or so, and always found it both smart & genuine. Moreover, your blog has contributed appreciably to my gambling degeneracy.
Mostly, though, it's good to see a fellow writer work hard & turn Pro.
Right on, dude!
Best Wishes,
Mike E

Anonymous said...

...when you're stalking Latent Heat, and you're champing at the bit because you can't wait to run past him, then you're a whole lotta horse...i would agree that Brother Derek might have an eagerness issue come Saturday, as might Lawyer Ron...and my clocker HAS noticed some borderline rankness in his training, at least up to the SA Derby...apparently, he was able to relax behind a horse in a recent drill @ Hollywood, which for some reason has raised a few eyebrows?...as if Brother Derek was somehow second-best to his workmate?...that's EXTREMELY unlikely...btw, an interesting chat with Andy Beyer on the DRF site today...he's throwing Brother Derek out(as are many others, it seems)...i do hope Brother Derek loses, but i think it's downright comical that sharp people like Tom Amoss and Andy Beyer can't find anything nice to say about him...he just smoked A.P. Warrior and Point Determined in his last start (at odds-on, mind you), and yet Beyer lists those two as major contenders, while he throws Brother Derek completely out?...makes a lot of sense, doesn't it?...if he loses, he loses, but the horse is obviously a serious contender...i'm guessing Hendricks and Solis wouldn't trade places with anyone in the field...

Alan Mann said...

Hey Mike E - Thanks man, I appreciate that. Sorry about the gambling thing.

Come to think of it, I don't think I've read a single handicapper or writer say that he likes Brother Derek. He seems to be fast becoming very unfashionable, and it could end up being a wise guy bet to wager ON him. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he opens 6-1 or higher in the very early wagering.

Anonymous said...

...one more thing about the Beyer chat...someone mentioned there are rumors that Discreet Cat will be a surprise entrant...wow, if only that were true!...the horse IS stabled @ Belmont, so maybe that's where the rumors started, but to my knowledge he hasn't worked out since arriving in the country last week...if he were going to run, i'm sure he would've worked out by now...i suppose it's possible that he worked on a private farm or something, but i just don't see it happening, unfortunately...

...ps...i unexpectedly ran into some matchups tonight (i didn't expect to see any more until Thursday)...i did bet one, and you can probably guess who it is...

Brother Derek -140
Lawyer Ron +110

Brother Derek -150
Sweetnorthernsaint +120

Lawyer Ron -170
Barbaro +140

A.P. Warrior -115
Steppenwolfer -115

Barbaro -180
Bob and John +150

Sharp Humor -120
Private Vow -110

Sweetnorthernsaint -130
Point Determined EV

Point Determined -185
Sinister Minister +155

Jazil -130
Private Vow EV

Bluegrass Cat -125
Cause to Believe -105

Patrick J Patten said...

when does the barron's thing come out? will you link to it?
it would be awesome to see discreet cat enter and then just scratch. you think people are mad at the sheiks about oil, oh my if they enter/scratch taht would be war! hah

Alan Mann said...

Patrick - The article will be in this weekend's Barron's, available on Derby Day. (I also did a timely sidebar comparing some high-budget and low-budget options for attending the Derby.) However, Barrons.com is a paid site, so I won't be able to link to it. I'm going to ask if I can post the text here, which I'd like to do side by side with the version I actually submitted before the editing took place!