- Brother Derek got most of the post-Derby bad-trip sympathy, but Sweetnorthernsaint has been catching up in that regard. Mike Trombetta has made it clear that his colt was done from the very beginning, when he broke at the back of the pack. His journey was detailed in the official race chart thusly:
SWEETNORTHERNSAINT, steadied when bumped at the start by A.P. WARRIOR and forced out on PRIVATE VOW, was steadied again under the wire the first time in tight quarters, worked his way between foes around the first turn, angled inside on the backstretch, boldly came through close quarters along the rail at the five-sixteenths pole, but faltered when straightened for the drive.Like Dan Hendricks, Trombetta is placing his hopes on his horse being able to run his race this time. But the NY Post’s Ray Kerrison agrees with my opinion that this is not necessarily assured just because the field is shorter.
A week ago, Like Now, the free-running Gotham winner, appeared to be the main speed of the Preakness, with the Saint and Brother Derek right behind him.Today’s post position draw should help us get an idea of what will transpire early on.
Now in comes Bernardini, a lightly-raced colt with a ton of early speed, and yet another newcomer, a speed freak named Diabolical. Suddenly, the Preakness front end may look like the Long Island Expressway on Friday nights - or the Derby all over again.
The nice clean, clear trip everyone expected in the Preakness may not be there after all. [NY Post]
As far as the late Sweetnorthernsaint money that is fast becoming legendary, Trombetta said "It was not my money.” The late action on the tote board will be one of the many interesting side plots to keep an eye on.
- This week has certainly been a boon for the Fair Hill training center from where Barbaro will ship to Pimlico sometime Friday afternoon. We’ve read countless articles on the scenic and tranquil surroundings, the all-weather wood chip track, and the generous grazing pastures. I was fascinated to read the other day that there is no security gate at the facility, and anyone can just drive in! You wouldn't see that in New York, that’s for sure! No wonder there’s been so much press stories written from there. It sounds, however, like it can be a bit of a free-for-all. "It's terrific that people want to come by," Matz said. "But it amazes people that some people try to walk right in the barn. I wish they'd at least ask first." [Daily Racing Form]
I got a comment from Alex, who works at Tim Wooley Racing, an outfit which is headquartered at Fair Hill (where Diabolical is stabled as well). He writes: “Watching Barbaro train at Fair Hill everyday, we are psyched to see if he can go all the way.” I think we all are, whether we end up betting on him in the Preakness or not. It’s reported on the Tim Wooley Racing website, which includes some daily observations on Barbaro’s preparations, that Haskin was hanging around there for three days. After his frenetic Derby analysis, let’s hope that he is getting some relaxing grazing in too, and perhaps he can come up with a single, coherent pick for the Preakness. On Bloodhorse.com today, Haskin comments on the changes in the way the top contenders are being prepped for the race.
In 1987, when Jack Van Berg breezed Alysheba a half in :50 1/5 early on Preakness week, it was considered too slow, and the alarm immediately went off. When John Servis elected not to work Smarty Jones at all in 2004, no one seemed to care. Now you have three trainers all skipping a work and not a mention has been made.- Bernardini had his rain-delayed final work on Wednesday, and the connections of Ah Day will put their $100,000 to better use.
- Bob Neuimeier is one who thinks that Barbaro will bounce in the Preakness.
Welcome to the mysterious world of the “Bounce Theory” — racing’s version of the Rubik’s Cube. The tenet holds that a horse that runs an abnormally fast race or speed-figure number will typically regress in his next start, unless he or she has sufficient recovery time, usually 30 days or more. Barbaro is being asked to bounce back in 14 days, not nearly enough rest. A trainer as sharp as Matz would never run a prized horse back on such short time.
......
Ironically, the biggest advantage Barbaro had for the Kentucky Derby is potentially his biggest obstacle entering the Preakness — time. But you say, he won so effortlessly, surely he has plenty of fuel left.
Maybe. It’s more likely that he doesn't, and at the hype-induced odds of 3-5 or less, he becomes a very bad bet. [MSNBC.com]
10 Comments:
"Bob Neuimeier is one who thinks that Barbaro will bounce in the Preakness."
He's reaching. Horses bounce coming into the Derby, ala Hansel (Jim Beam), Bellamy Road (Wood). History of the Preakness doesnt back his therory up. But everyone wants to beat a favorite, have a wise guy idea and be so much smarter than everyone else.
I probably wont bet the race, Barbaro will be odds on, and to bet against him is a big risk.
Nick
Hansel won the Jim Beam easily, but the Lexington was ridiculous...thats the race he bounced out of....Nick...wanted to get it right.
i don't understand the bounce theory, but if it is due to a horse over exerting itself and thus being aexhausted from the experience, i am not sure that is the case for Barbaro. He looks too good!
I would agree that Neumeier, whose name I should probably try to spell correctly in the future, is stetching here. Barbaro may have run faster than he has before, but there was plenty left in the tank on Derby Day. If he loses, I don't think it will be because he bounced, but rather because one of the others steps up.
Alan, I do subscribe to the bounce theory, but I recognize specifics in subscribing to that angle. Its usually a horse that is coming off a layoff that may have none or one race under his belt and goes out and runs a big Beyers, maybe a lifetime number. Horses that do that frequently need a little more time between starts than they usually would. Or a horse that has never been near that Beyers before in his career. Neither of these scenarios apply to Barbaro, he ran a 111 Beyers in the Derby, he ran a 103 in the Fla Derby...thats not running way over his head, he figured to improve off that race. Bellamy Road ran a 120 in the Wood, his second start of the year, he had never been anywhere near that number before. Thats a horse that points to a bounce and he did.
Please don't post about Bellamy Road you're going to bring up a lot of bad memories for Alan.
...i'm not a big subscriber to the bounce theory...i just know that horses are animals, and not machines...therefore, they aren't necessarily going to replicate themselves every time out...it's funny that when a horse runs poorly off a big effort, they call it a bounce...but when they run poorly off a bad effort, they don't call it anything...take Balance for example...i know horses are different from people, but two weeks seems ample time to recover from any physical exertion...i don't think it'll be an issue...what's more of an issue is that it deviates from his normal routine, so i guess there some chance he might be thrown off-kilter...on the list of handicapping factors though, it's gotta be pretty far down the list...btw, Derby winners traditionally run well in the Preakness, at least since i've been following horses (1994)...that's a definite handicapping factor...as an aside, i'm pretty sure i heard on ESPN yesterdya that "10 of the last 17 Derby winners have NOT won the Preakness"...they tried to make it sound like that was a horrible percentage or something...are you kidding me?...in horseracing, 7-for-17 is pretty damn strong...that's a 41% strike rate, my friends...
I think the Bounce theory with Barbaro is absurd. He might get beat in Baltimore, but if he does it will be because some very fast 3 yr. olds will have cleaner trips than they did in the derby (SNS, Brother Derkek) and they prove to be faster. If anything, I think Barbaro is on an upswing here. Keep in mind he had only raced once in 13 weeks prior to the Derby. Matz is really holding Aces going into these final two legs with a fresh, fast, horse bred to run all day long!!!
As a trainer, you have an idea when your horse has overextended himself. They tell you. They may back out of the feed tub. They may lay down in their stall when they never did before. They may show it in training, getting on one line, or a lack luster way they go about their work. Now if its the TC, you HAVE to go with your horse. You dont have a choice. It's a once in a lifetime chance. If your horse ran big in his last prep prior to the Derby and is exhibiting any of the above descriptions, you still are going to race him....so the bounce does exist. Dont ever think it doesnt. I had a horse that would lay down for two days after a tough race, when he did, I wouldnt put him back in box for a month. You dont have that luxury when its a TC race. Nick
IF Barbaro runs in the stretch with the tremendous gear changes he demonstrated in the Derby then you are looking at a Triple Crown Winner and that is exactly what I think we are looking at here. While SNS and Brother Derek might be quality horses, they don't posses the raw talent Barbaro has demonstrated and I think the fragility of this horse is overestimated in thie "bounce" theory. I'm thinking he is 3 lenghts better than Brother Derek and pulling away at the wire. At Belmont, he demolshes the field and we have a Triple Crown Winner for our generation. He has a complete package and barring injury, everyone else is running for second.
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